Member Info for adoubleuk

"I prefer the line by poster TheLagerKhan on another bb, that "if any one can, a Khan can"

Shouldn't that be "If anyone can, a Khan can Can-Can"?

Oh dear. Cabin-fever is setting in...

Pisces11,

"The Stena Natalita is also standing by the AM waiting on weather to connect up. "

According to my sources, it's nowt to do with the weather. Instead it's applying sterile hand-cleaner to the loading hose, foot-by-foot, which is taking the time...

I see that the PBLJ has left the Cromarty anchorage, and is heading into the Firth itself. Looks like 'Rangers1' was spot-on with his supposition a few days ago as to the rig's destination.

It'll be interesting to see where she anchors-up. If it's close to a quayside in might (opinion) mean she's moving on soon. But if it's somewhere further out, my opinion is that she'll be staying there awhile.

We're now into April. So obviously plans for the rig (which we didn't know much about to start with) have changed. I wouldn't be surprised if some 'force majeur' agreement has been reached with Transocean, and the drilling program put on hold.

Meanwhile, 'Seawell' after a quick layover at Scrabster is heading north again, destination Whirlwind. I thought she was over Whirlwind a couple of weeks ago, but maybe that was just for a quick look-see, and now she's going back to complete the P&A. (Another guess.)

I do wish Hurricomms could be a bit more 'open' about what's going on. OK, we may have learned more had the CMD taken place, but it didn't. And whatever 'Seawell' is still up to can't come cheap. Especially as the dayrate will have been agreed before the Poo went into freefall.

Longwait,

"We're talking about different 'theys', Double."

I don't think we are.

"I'm referring to the mass media and you're referring to the authorities."

They've become the same. Unfortunately. And despite the mass media proclaiming their 'freedom of expression', all they do now is just unwittingly act as the 'authorities' megaphone. Hey! These days, we know what the Queen's Speech is going to be before she's given it. We have 'leaked documents' from Downing Street before the PM's said anything.

Honestly, all my local shops and bars have been closed up because of something someone's said on the telly, and the police are out asking me for a bit of paper whenever I want to go for a walk. But I haven't seen any tumbrils coming down my street laden with bodies. In fact, haven't seen any ambulances turning up anywhere in the vicinity in a hurry.

Not walking to the hospital to see how things are, 'cos despite my investigative journalistic instincts, it's more than the kilometer distance from home I'm allowed to go.

Dunno what to believe, believe me.

Longwait,

"They tell us what is serious, how seriously we should take it, and how we should react."

That's not the point.

'They' also shut down commerces, pubs, restaurants, shops other than those selling food, etc. 'They' also also limit how far we can go for a walk, and have the police enforce that. 'They' tell me I can't get in my car and drive 40 miles to play poker with some friends. While 'They' impose taxes to the extent that diesel costs 1.5 euros a litre, whereas we know that there's so much of the stuff it ought to be retailed at about 5 cents.

And now 'They' are 'self-isolating' 'cos they've got the same bug as everyone else...!

AQS,

"Odd that, I don't recollect hospitals rapidly running out of respirators in previous years for this "routine" flu virus then!"

No, maybe not. But I do recollect both political parties during both the Brexit arguing and the elections saying the NHS was underfunded and running close to the limit. Maybe they were both right, and now push has come to shove, that's the case. I guess a bit of kit like like a 'respirator' has a 'usage life', just like a car. But instead of using funds to replace equipment, it's gone into different pockets. Now we see the result.

acrossthesea,

Tks for the links.

The first I had already seen, but the second I hadn't, and it was interesting.

I particularly liked this phrase.

"The scenes from the Italian hospitals have been shocking, and make for grim television. But television is not science."

Sure, one can be 'subjective', and be cynical about the whole thing because of the hardships which governments are imposing on us.

But there are also objective reasons to be cynical. Even if while sitting back in one's armchair while under 'lockdown' there's nothing to be done about it.

What I see is 'systems breakdown'.

Here's a stark case.

The UK health-system is supposedly at 'breaking point' due to CV-19. This 'scare' has caused people to 'add a new system', such as bringing more people in to supposedly shore up the thing. Like 'grounded' airline cabin-crews, and turning the Excel centre into a hospital. But there's already a shortage of health-staff PPE, and health-staff are already coming down with CV-19, leading to a lack of people to train the incomers into their new roles. For whom yet more PPE will be required. Etc..

There's a lot of 'positive feedback' occurring here, and that's never a good thing.

Plus it's all being 'improvised', and that's not good, neither.

KSA / Russia and oil is almost a sideline. But over a matter of a few months, the economy's been wrecked, and civil liberties essentially curtailed. Something's bound to go 'pop' (or KERBOOM!) soon.

Fortunately, help in that respect might be on its way. Google 'comet Atlas'. Just a marginal shift in trajectory...

Pecten11,

Sorry, missed your reply.

"Perhaps the key dataset presently missing, is the %of asymptomatic cases in the population - something which could manifestly change the current predictive models"

Yes. It's a key dataset, but not simply related to 'asymptomatic' cases. How about people who had symptoms and the 'rottenest case of flu they'd ever had in their lives' but aren't of the mindset to go to A&E or call their doctor whenever they feel a bit under the weather? (I put myself into that mindset, and don't call the doctor because due to various reasons, most don't do house-calls any more.)

It's why I'm very sceptical about the data one sees on the TV, and why I've stopped watching such stuff so frequently. I'm not in a panic about CV-19, but our 'leaders' obviously are. Because the micey-nicey 'systems' are breaking down.

Longwait,

"Let’s get one thing straight. The collapse in oil demand as a result of the worldwide response to the Covid-19 virus is a much, much bigger problem than the additional barrels threatened by Saudi Arabia and Russia — none of which has arrived yet. As airplanes stop flying and drivers stop driving, they are going to struggle to find buyers for their oil, just like everyone else."

Agree.

Greta Thumbsuck must be rubbing her hands with glee. But we haven't heard much out of her, lately. Maybe she's gone back to school. After all she lives in one of the few countries where such establishments still remain open.

acrossthesea,

"finally some one with insight into the the true nature of what is going on with this virus. This really is story of The Emperor's New Clothes."

To whom are you referring? Send link, please.

IAmNotAnAnalyst,

"Colds being transmitted because of people being close together in winter is not the main reason that happens. Think about your life and how much time you spend in enclosed spaces with people even in summer, it's not that different. "

A sweeping statement, which all depends on peoples' 'lifestyles', where they live, and so on. Sure, if one's office-bound for work, not much difference between the seasons. But not everyone is tied to a desk.

Heck! I'm 'retired' and live in the centre of a town. But right now in early spring, I'd be reckoning on spending more of my time 'outdoors' than cooped-up in my flat, as is the current situation. Or on the road in my car, which is 'home-from-home' for me, and maybe where I'm the most 'zen relaxed'.

But that's a liberty which has been taken away from me by a 'government' in panic-mode, sticking band-aids onto a 'system' which has failed, and thereby creating even greater problems down the line.

IAmNotAnAnalyst,

Sorry, forgot this part of your post.

"Your earthquake analogue is only applicable if Covid drastically changed in December."

I disagree.

It's HUMAN BEHAVIOUR (carriers of the virus) which changes around December! Holidays. People going hither-and-thither around the global village to 'be with family', and so on. And in places like Europe, suddenly cramming themselves together in warm places, in close proximity, and so on. Airports crammed. Etc...

The virus doesn't have to change at all. It's just being given an ideal 'incubator'.

Just like the Common Cold. People generally associate that with wintertime, and the weather. Poppy****. It's simply because in wintertime, people tend to stay closer together in warm places.

A vaccine for CV-19? Still haven't found one for the 'Common Cold' yet. Not even quite sure what it is.

IAmNotAnAnalyst,

" how can something as contagous as Covid only thinly spread itself all around the world, and not proliferate as it is doing now? Has it changed how infectious it is? If it is spread thinly then it would be much more difficult for it to spread around the globe."

I am absolutely NO expert in this, so please treat my reply as pure opinion.

What we are talking about here is NOT the 'spread of the virus'. Instead, it's the STATISTICAL MAPPING of its spread. And that only really started once the thing had been identified after the Wuhan 'outbreak', and then, quite possibly, only retroactively.

And even now, 'testing' is generally only being carried out on people admitted to hospitals in an unwell condition, or as a precaution, those in contact with such patients.

It is obvious that the virus has spread worldwide already, with the possible exclusion of Antarctica. But in some ways, and given the current lack of 'testing' means, it's downright impossible to know what percentage of people worldwide have contracted it, maybe fallen mildly ill but got over it at home, not been ill at all, how many have died at home due to complications arising, and so on.

All we see on the media are 'reported cases'.

Sorry 'bout staying 'on-topic', but the way this 'crisis' is helping to crater the economy has a direct effect on the stockmarket and my HUR shares...

Oh, and 'Pecten11' (and anyone else interested, maybe 'Robone') when I wrote "I too, believe I've already 'had" this thing, in late December", I'm not kidding, and have good circumstantial reasons for thinking so.

Around 13th December (I think it was then), I was at a private poker game amongst 'friends': including a young (late-30's) Chinese man, who was coughing and feeling a bit unwell. A relatively small room, ten people in close proximity, having 'fun' trying to take each others' money off them. People remarked on the fact that this guy wasn't looking too good, but he wanted to stay.

Ten days earlier, his parents had arrived from China to stay with him, for both the Christmas holidays and also the Chinese New Year. And they were already coughing and feeling unwell. But they blamed it on the long-haul flight, and the jetlag, and so on.

The 'Xmas holidays' were no fun for me: for a couple of days I thought I might die. But didn't care. But rarely have I ever been so unwell.

This is how a disease can spread, insidiously. And the most important thing about this new one is the inability to test for whether someone who has already had it is in fact 'immune', or may in fact remain a 'carrier'.

Pecten11,

"ADUK, that Oxford paper is potentially dangerous (though I fully support them writing it, it's just how it's been publicised rather than peer reviewed), because it would then imply that the incubation period for the virus is far longer than currently thought, which means that for social isolation to have any impact it will go on for far, far longer."

In what way is it 'potentially dangerous'? In that it suggests that 'lockdown' may have to go on longer? Yes, if so, I'd agree, because the longer 'lockdown' goes on, the greater the resultant societal and economic damage is liable to be.

However, I don't see how in any way it implies that the 'incubation period' is longer than at present believed. 'Spread' at an earlier period may be presumed to have been international travel for the holiday season. And it may also be safely assumed that international travel is (by and large) not undertaken by those in the most 'at risk' category. In other words, old, poor, and already infirm.

So it could have been spreading via relatively otherwise healthy people who thought they had caught a cold, or were coming down with the 'flu, or not showing any symptoms at all.

"I've already personally witnessed one person behaving in a challenging way because, as he put it 'I'm immune, I caught it in January"

I too, believe I've already 'had" this thing, in late December. I was seriously ill from Christmas Eve, through to early January. Just look at my 'posting history' here to check! :-) Barely one post a day, and none at all on Dec 28. That's how bad it was! But literally, for a few days I could hardly breathe, and thought I might die. But I live alone, have no 'dependants', and if I die, I die. Won't call an ambulance no matter how bad I feel. But (slowly) recovered. And am interested in the 'now immune' idea, but a good test for that still hasn't been developed, and I'm not going to waste my local hospital's time by volunteering for a 'trial test'. They've got more things more urgent on their hands right now.

Back to your acquaintance who ' pointedly licked his fingers before paying for something in cash'.

That's not only downright irresponsible, but anyone who 'pointedly licks their fingers' before counting out banknotes is ill-mannered in the extreme. Even in 'normal' times. Usually a gesture used by racetrack bookies paying out a winning punter...

canetois,

"feelinlucky. If you continue to discuss HUR on this bulletin board I will have no alternative but to report you Admin with a view to getting you both banned in order that the rest of us can discuss nothing other than COVID-19."

Can I present an 'Attestation de Derogation' to you excusing my occasional 'Shipwatch' posts, so I too don't get banned?

IAmNotAnAnalyst,

"For that to be true quite a few unproven guesses have to be accurate. Assuming its current form was the same in December there's no chance this could have been freely circulation without anyone noticing the demands on the healthcare system."

I disagree with you. CDV-19 could have been in wide, but thinly-spread circulation in Europe without the health services batting an eyelid. Just 'seasonal flu' with a few 'at risk' patients (maybe already under care) not making it through. Here and there. Nothing statistically important.

It took an 'epicentre' (in this instance Wuhan) for people to sit up and take notice.

Hey! In the part of France where I live, we frequently have earthquakes! (A little-known fact, but true.) Takes something more than 3.5 Richter to even merit a paragraph in the regional newspaper. In fact, the 'shakiness' is almost 'fun'! I remember a (long) weekend away last year, got back home and noticed some pictures on the walls of my flat weren't quite 'plumb'. Just by a couple of millimeters, but I knew there had been an earthquake, and checking the French seismology peoples' site on the net, found it was true. (My pictures are my 'earthquake detector'!)

Wuhan may have been the 'epicentre' and the 'big quake', but there could have been little 'rumblings' going on widespread for a while earlier, without being noticed for what they were.

Of course, these may be 'unproven guesses', but people are now in such a spin over the actual state of things, that I doubt there are many researching back a few months...

Pecten11,

"Bartlebobton, you seem obsessed with trying to get a rise out of ADUK"

Thanks for the heads-up. But he doesn't stand a chance. I've got the turkey filtered.

robone,

"I think covid-19 is here in UK since December last year"

There of plenty of reasons to believe that, and it also applies to other european countries. And also in Wuhan, it had been festering for at least two months. A lot of people tend to think the outbreak started in January, but that was simply when the mortality rate became disturbing, and the coronavirus was actually identified as being a new variant.

BlooBird,

" A team from the Institute engineered a hybrid virus, combining a bat coronavirus with a SARS virus that had been adapted to grow in mice and mimic human disease. The hybrid virus was able to infect human cells."

Of course, one must always be wary about what one gleans from wrongopedia.

But that quote does, to my mind, invite closer and deeper question.

There aleady enough viruses around, some of which still have no known cure. And I can fully understand the existence of 'virology research institutes', searching for such cures. But inventing new ones? The individuals doing that must already be sick. In the head.

Or else, such 'research' is military-related.

Meanwhile, millions of 'surgical masks' are being flown into Europe because of a seeming shortage. From guess where?