Member Info for adoubleuk

JoeSoap,

"aduk: We have no information whatsoever regarding current individual well flowrates and settings.
In the RNS it says:
"In March, the combined production rate was increased to approximately 20,000 bopd comprising 12,000 bopd from the 205/21a-6 well and 8,000 bopd from the 205/21a-7Z well, before downtime. This recent oil production rate has been associated with approximately 6,000 barrels of water per day, predominantly from the 205/21a-7Z well."
I believe that they have disclosed sufficient parameters to enable such a calculation, irrespective of 'settings'."

OK, believe that if you wish. I believe the contrary. The data is not enough for we 'armchair oilmen' to second-guess what's actually the state of things. OK, one can 'bend the data' to suit our own personal prefernces, but that's a different animal.

"I note that dspp made such a calculation, but as he did not include any water from #6 he has the worst case for #7z, which if true is a large percentage increase from the November data of c17%. A trend, if you will."

I gave up wasting my time reading dspp's stuff a while ago or looking at his presentations on lemonfool. He's got an agenda which doesn't interest me. PLUS I note it's been a long while since he's commented here, to defend his very dodgy theories.

"So not the CMD 20,000 flatline forecasted, which would have been a useful bonus at this time to reduce the Opex."

I don't think the company has ever forecasted 20,000 bbl /day, even at the CMD. It's 20,000 bbl/day, but with potential 10% downtime, which hasn't happened so far. Which works out at (forward-looking) 18,000.

Which still ain't at all bad, with just two wells under 50% choke, the pumps not being needed, etc., etc...

Think I'll go and look (for laughs) at the UKOG BB, or SXX, or something like that. Before logging into my usual poker-game and hopefully making some money.

Underline 'hopefully'. Can't win all the time, especially online. But I really don't understand the 'deramping' here following today's RNS. The company has obviously still got its head well above water. Unlike hundreds of others which due to circumstances are going to go under.

daltry,

"A2UK - You are on full flow this evening. Excellent !"

Thank you. Maybe it's a result of having changed habits a bit, and so far not having turned on my TV today. Not being bombarded with that constant bullsh helps one concentrate on more interesting stuff. Getting 'into the pay' last night at a mammoth online poker tounament (31st out of 2374 players) could have some bearing on it as well. Plus deciding to put 'turnturnturn' onto my 'filtered list' this morning might have helped...

feelinlucky,

"...although just guessing Dr T may consider pumping 7Z well like billy-o"

I'm sorry, don't wish to be impertinent, but I feel obliged to split hairs on a technical term. Out on Lancaster, they're not 'pumping' anything, except from time to time, when they use pumps to get the oil out of the AM's tanks and across to the shuttle tankers. The wells are on natural flow. Mother Earth (or rather reservoir pressure) is doing the 'pumping' for us. Against a 'less than' 50% choke. Open up the chokes and it'd be like watching a Jane Fonda aerobics video at four times normal speed.

BlooBird,

"If the wells were only chocked back to 75% flow (sometime in the future) does that mean they could produce 30k bopd and therefore not need to drill and tie back another well ?"

This is a point tentatively mentioned here recently. Yesterday or the day beforehand. But it's not as easy as that. For starters, flow rates vs choke settings (even when expressed as a percentage) isn't a linear curve. It might only mean opening to 60% to get a 10,000 bbl/day increase. But then you'd be changing a lot of other downhole factors as well it'd be a 'new experiment'.

From the RNS, it's obvious that the plan is to keep going 'as is' for the foreseeable future. This seems wise, to me, and 'playing things safe'. From a 'scientific' viewpoint, if further 'behavioural' data is still being acquired leqding to greater understanding of the reservoir, why change the experimental parameters?

Today's RNS, along with earlier news, suggests further things. One, almost explicit, being that the only firm drilling plans for 2020 will be the two sub-vertical 'delineation' wells, one on Lancaster, the other on Lincoln. For regulamentary reasons. Hopefully OGA (as implied) will be flexible as to when exactly these are drilled, as it may be dictated by CV19 stuff. But a further producer on Lancaster may be postponed. Cromarty Firth is apparently beginning to look like a Tesco's carpark on Christmas Eve again, so obviously things are being put on 'hold' by a lot of companies.

Also implicit in this and other RNS's is that Lancaster EPS can continue to function as is economically, and also fund the two 'regulation' wells, even with a dire POO.

The only disadvantage to having just two producers on Lancaster rather than three is the lack of redundancy. The EPS (after years of planning, changing plans, etc.) obviously 'works best' and is viable with two wells. But if one well starts to present a problem of some sort, you're down to one. Whereas with three wells, youd be facing some sort of real bad luck not to be able to have two in production at any one time.

I suspect this will become clearer at the webcast CMD on the 27th. I will certainly be signing in for it, if possible. And it will lead to a valid question to be subsequently posed to 'doommongers' on this BB: "did you watch the webcast?" I'll bet most of the people rabbiting on here today about the 'disastrous' water-cut have never watched last year's CMD.

MCB55,

We were obviously writing at the same time!

JoeSoap,

"Yes Longwait it's not hard to suggest that the headline may not reflect the full reason for the fall today, but out of curiosity have you tried doing any water production calculations to try and understand the trends here and what they may mean?"

It would be impossible for Longwait to do this. For the same reason it's impossible for the naysayers to do so in order to frighten people with their doomsday predictions.

All we have is total oil and water output figures. We have no information whatsoever regarding current individual well flowrates and settings. In fact we'd need individual well production logs for the last three months to be able to start even attempting to draw some sort of conclusion. For all we know (though this is just hypothesis, not necessarily the case), they may be drawing preferentially on 7z, to see if its individual cut of perched water starts to decrease with time.

Two things we DO know. First of all, the water-cut is being easily managed by the FPSO's production train, which is good. No cause for worry. Secondly, the current production is under natural flow at less than 50% choke. And that is quite frankly staggering.

Longwait,

"Does that mean no increase in production for nearly two years?"

Not necessarily. The current 20,000 bbl / day isn't the 'upper limit' dictated by flaring constraints. And we know that both wells are capable of producing more than that without exceeding drawdown limits. So as time goes on, and more is learned about reservoir behaviour, the company might (nb 'might', imho) increase flow from the two current producers to optimise revenue against delayed development and OGA-regulated drilling obligations / expense.

Cebo,

"Footnote to the PC brigade - DILGAF, stay safe.

That's a new acronym to me, and a google search didn't help. But I'm not 'PC', and hate the idea, so here's another one to those who are: GBIOYA ! :-)

petethestreet,

"Speaking as a very lapsed Catholic (I still have the guilt) LW, communion always was a tad virtual in my view "

I speak as very very lapsed C of E. I gave up when I complained the wine was corked, but the priest wouldn't go and get something better...

Longwait, Luther 101, AquaeSulis, Missdosh, et al,

We seem to be taking a lot of flak discussing the world's most popular game here. (It's estimated that more people play poker than football, with the possible exception of Africa and the Indian subcontinent.) So to keep poeple like turnturnturn happy, let's steer the discussion back to Hurricane.

Now, lt's see.

Production.

Not having received word to the contrary, we can assume we're still producing about 20,000 bbl/day.

Shipwatch.

Tha Aoka Mizu is still where she's supposed to be. The PBLJ is still anchored at the entrance to Cromarty Firth. No tankers are due to take an offload for another three weeks or so.

Share Price technical analysis.

Having studied assorted matchsticks and Bonniface charts, I can confidently predict the following. The Share Price will remain UNCHANGED until Tuesday morning. Subsequently, it will either go UP, or go DOWN.

Corporate business.

I think it quite likely that Dr Robert Trice (CEO) will have a glass of whisky and a cigar after lunch tomorrow.

Errrr..... Think that's it.

JoeSoap,

"Equally intriguing is why Hur paid to have it dragged there..."

It's very unclear as to by whom the costs were met. Don't make assumptions.

Just to confound the people who think I only post about card-games here.

The PBLJ is moored slap-bang in the middle of the channel into the Cromarty Firth, (Still, it's been reported before.)

What an odd place to drop the picks. 'Rangers 1' ! Any ideas why?

luther101,

"Errrr .... as the US is a net exporter of oil (& has been since 2011) how is a Saudi/Russian cut going to make any damn difference? America is swimming in the stuff."

Is that currently the case (wrt exports)? I don't personally know, and am a bit too lazy to go find out for now, though may do so later. Trump's directive to 'fill the strategic reserves to the brim' may have diverted quite a lot of production from export.

Certainly the US will continue to export LNG (to the UK amongst others), but although obviously inextricably linked to oil, the gas market is a different beast.

It's very hard to properly pin down US oil production in realtime. But inevitably, due to POO, production will be slowing of its own accord, especially in the shale sector. Due to CV-19, the economy is being badly hit, and banks can only loan money to a certain extent, and are very unsure about the future. Many many US producers (especially in shale) are already highly endebted, and certainly are again producing at significant loss now. So if further loans are not forthcoming, shut-ins will be inevitable. Shale wells (the ertwhile 'golden goose') are very maintenance-heavy, often requiring 're-fracs' and so on. But the number of frac-fleet companies with the required equipment going bust on a daily basis is more than startling.

thestreet,

"Anyone got any news on the next drill?"

Nope.

Or if they have, I hope they'll post the link here.

luther,

Well really, we're WAAY off-topic, but the bell has gone, and I hope LSE won't mind.

" that Sixmax looks a cracking little Festival in Lloret de Mar,"

It certainly is. I was there last year, when it was held in May. And had such a great time that I stayed two more days than planned, then a couple of days in Figueras to properly see the Salvador Dali museum on the way home. Covered ALL my expenses and got back with a modest four-figure profit.

Mind you, I don't play the tournaments. Just stay downstairs (up to 14 hours) at the moderate-stake cash tables, playing tight and patient, 'hooking in' the players who'd been knocked out of their tournaments, were 'on tilt', and think that internet tournament play is in any way related to live cash games, which it isn't. Lots of 'pros' downstairs doing just like me, made a lot of 'friends'. (Ie, we avoided getting into serious hands together! Except when unavoidable. ;-) ) Also it's a bit of a 'get-together'. Casino cash players in western France, all the way from Brittany to Biarritz get to know one or two people and we bump into each other frequently, sometimes quite a way from home. Ans a lot of us were down there in Spain.

Plus there are all sorts of 'parties', so the youngsters live it up, which makes 'em play badly the next day. But more grist to my mill.... With dirt-cheap tapas food available at all hours and gin at five and a half euros a litre, 'partying' was the last thing on my mind. Didn't mind being a 'Cat Walking on its Own' at all.

The only trouble with that fabulous casino is there's no indoor smoking area: you have to go outside for a cigarette. But in fact that was no hardship at all. In fact you can leave your chips on the table for an hour, so I could even take a break, whizz back to my hotel and take a shower, come back and not having lost my place.

I hope it happens as scheduled in September.

Good grief. Return of 'SonoftheBull'. Thought you'd been lost overboard or something. Foos yer doos?

Four 'blue days' in a row for HUR? Definitely unusual. Maybe without the water-cut, the bonds, and the ever-present threat of the giant squid, this little oil outfit is still worth something after all.

I've taken to looking at the company website a bit more often, just in case the 'quarterly' arrives.

First thing I noted was the AGM is scheduled for 3rd June. Don't know if we've read this elsewhere.

Also I looked at the 'final report' published on March 19th. And (I think) is carries more detail than was in the RNS version. Something which struck my eye was this:

" Well (Lincoln Crestal) to be plugged and abandoned by 22 June 2020, since the GWA partners have been unable to obtain an extension to the terms of the suspension consent or to obtain the other consents required to tie the well back to the Aoka Mizu FPSO "

OK, operationally maybe that date may slip due to CV-19 'constraints', but even by the 19th, the covid panic was making its unpleasant presence known, as evidenced by the preamble to the Report. But I think we can say byebye to LC. Until all this blows over, Centrica get their Spirit selloff sorted, and so on.

daltry,

I see the relevant thread's been deleted. But earlier on you predicted a 'red' close.

Please continue to do so (on an occasional basis, mind: don't want to push your luck) ! It seems to have a good effect.

missdosh,

Thanks for update! The figure was showing as 60,000 tons up until today. The latest figure indicates a 'partial load' of 390,000 bbl. 'Betty Knutson took another 'partial load' of an estimated 200,000 bbl. Which means in excess of 500,000 bbl over a month, which is OK, but also expected.

I suspect that these 'partial offloads may be weather-related rather than anything else.