Member Info for adoubleuk

MaryMullins,

"Any shipwatchers with a view as to why there is a second tanker alongside the Navion Oceana or just a blip on AIS ?"

I think it's just a 'blip'. One is a terrestrially-received AIS position, the other a satellite one. Both the same boat. Or at least, I hope so, otherwise a collision seems imminent !

daltry,

"Doesn't say anything we don't already know.... Not impressed."

I beg to disagree. Edison has nicely 'distilled' a lot of stuff from the CMD (which was a mess, in my opinion), pulled out the pertinent facts, and presented them in a comprehensible way while dispensing with the dross.

To the extent which if anyone were to ask me for an overview of where Hurricane is right now, realtime, I'd refer them to this document rather than any other.

buyonrumour,

" Just a word of warning though, the report was "commissioned by Hurricane Energy and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Hurricane Energy".

True. But so are CPR's paid for by the company concerned. They're considered necessary by shareholders as a sort of 'peer review' of information already given out by the company itself.

Also, in the case of this report Edison evaluates the data, and then puts their own 'evaluation' on the stock, something the company itself cannot do, of course. Or rather, should not do.

What annoys me a lot, however, is how such 'stockmarket evaluations' are almost always wrong. Edison has 'downgraded' HUR to 70p NAV. But the shares aren't trading at anywhere near that level. Sure, maybe I'm getting the wrong end of the stick. Maybe 70p is what Edison reckons a company would have to pay were they going to bid to take over Hurricane. But the likelihood of a takeover in the near future, what with this CV19 madness and so on, seems low. Imho.

Thanks, Missdosh !

On the ball as ever.

xxx

Careful,

"Perhaps London South East have made a mistake by disclosing the report as an RNS ."

Yes. It's definitely not an RNS issued by the company. Very odd.

Gasman9,

"No chance of a big name looking at Spirit!! My money would be on Chrysaor once the sale process begins again."

Interesting you should say that. Because I felt there might be a flaw in my thinking even while writing ! The trouble with Centrica's sell-off of Spirit (or their part of it) is that it involves 'getting into bed' with the other co-owner.

You may be close to the mark with Chryasor...

jointhedots,

"I think some of the comments today are off the mark, the company are spot on with their current considerations of the next move , WRT the issue of workover or new well, the workover is being considered because it is less risky in many ways. "

I disagree with you, hence my agreement with Extrader's post this morning.

It's mainly a technical issue, so one which I feel happy to discuss, even if we mayend up agreeing to disagree !

But straight off, with one aspect I certainly DO agree with you. It's a good thing that the company is investigating assorted possibilities, and thus allowing for different options. It's a sign of good management to explore all options. Pre-planning, with possible Plans A, B, and C.

You're also right to some extent that a new well might not turn out to be necessarily an outright 'winner'. But at the same time, I'm sure that Hurricane has now got a far better and detailed 'handle' on their seismic on Lancaster than they did even 18 months ago, so well location won't be a hit or miss affair.

But I'll admit to having been a bit alarmed on hearing the 'workover plan' being expounded during the CMD. Although a lot of that was during the Q & A, responding to someone who latched onto the idea as being an 'easy fix' for something which doesn't really represent a 'problem' at the moment.

I've (more than once) tried thinking through what such a workover would entail. And in no way would it be a quick, nor easy 'fix'. It would carry a lot of risk, maybe for BOTH the wells.

OK, there are a lot of unknowns. For instance, we've been told that apparently most 'production' is from within about 50m of the heel sections. And honestly, I don't know HOW the company has extablishe such knowledge and be able to state it as fact. But does that include the 'water production' ? It's a nuance. I've got a sneaky feeling that our 'perched water zone' is further along 7z's horizontal than those 50m.

Whatever. Installation of a rig over 7z, pulling the tree and the completion, milling out (or however) of the production packer, re-entering the horizontal, and then b***ering around with things, not to mention eventual recompletion, would entail considerable shut in of BOTH wells, to my mind. And not just for the obvious stuff like the heavy-lifts for the tree, BOP, etc.. The proximity of both wells' heel-zones and their pressure-communication would require 6 to be shut down as well during the actual downhole stuff. Which means no production, and thus no positive cash input for probably a month or two. Plus the cost of keeping the FPSO running idle.

No. Gut-feeling tells me that this is not the cost-effective 'solution'. It's like formula one racing. What do those teams do, or at least the successful ones? They don't add bells and whistles to last year's car, they build a new one. While continuing to run last year's car at the start of the season if the new one isn't quite ready.

Bugerov,

"Bartlebobton why do you continue to stalk ADUK?"

Is he still at it?

Mind you, I noticed the 'green box' immediately following my post, so should have guessed. Filter remains firmly in place.

Gasman9,

"Personally If Spirit walk it will probably be a good thing, a bigger player such as Shell or BP will have more expertise and the people to move this development forward. "

But.. there's another possible scenarion, isn't there? Because we don't know who's interested in buying Centrica's part of Spirit. I think there will be all sorts of cancellation clauses in the JV documentation, so what reason is there to believe that Spirit may divest themselves of that part of their portfolio? Who knows/ Maybe even Shell or BP are sniffing around Spirit's door...

JiffyBag

"re isolating the first 40-50 metres of 7z) primarily because of the perched H2O section, and so thereby if successful improving productivity of the remaining barehole 7Z section . What are your thoughts on such a strategy?"

I agree with Extrader's 08:29 thoughts on this. 'Modifying' 7z would be an expensive and difficult workover, with a potentially high risk of failure. While the water cut remains manageable (ie not a 'problem'), priority must surely be given to drilling the '8 well', possibly identifying and isolating any water zones as part of the drilling operations.

winalot,

"If the well was shut in the perched water wouldn't go anywhere as It has been trapped for millions of years. "

You make that sound like a knowledgeable and 'definitive' answer, but I don't think it's necessarily true.

We've been told that both of the wells are currently producing from near to the 'heel section'. So from that, we must assume that the 'perched' water-producing zone intersected by 7z is within the forty or fifty metres (approx) that's been mentioned. I say 'must assume' because we're working from incomplete knowledge, and just the information the company has published. Personally I have a suspicion the water-zone may be further than that, but won't try to gainsay Dr Trice.

However, the wellbore extends a long way further than that, and has also intersected and crossed over other fractures. Fractures with which the water-zone may not have been well-connected with before. So to my mind, if the well is shut in, the water may quite possibly tend to 'migrate' towards such fractures, via the wellbore , and move downwards.

HOWEVER, this would be purely a gravitational process due to different fluid densities, and it must be remembered that the horizontal section is only 8-1/2" mean diameter, so such an 'exchange' would be a very slow process indeed. And to my mind, not enough to significantly reduce the remaining amount of water in the 'pocket'.

It must be remembered that with the well flowing, and thus under a slight amount of 'negative pressure', water will flow out of its 'pocket' far faster than just dictated by gravity.

As to what the water may becone 'replaced' by, I'm uncertain. You say oil / gas, but it all depends on that other fractures our 'pocket' is in contact with. My feeling is that it may more likely be 'gassy oil', because as the water depletes, there will be pressure changes encouraging gas to come out of solution, forming a 'localised cas-cap'. But that's just a wild guess.

Sorry if this sounds like hair-splitting, but MrWilks' original question was an interesting one.

Showmethemonet,

"The question we must ask is if Dr T has got the water issue right. Is it really perched water or do you think there is a more significant problem? "

Ummm...

Personally, and from all the evidence, yes, I think Dr T has got it right. And no, I don't believe there is a 'more significant problem'.

Why, do you?

I find it odd that in the first paragraph of your post you should say that, but in the second, having hyped-up the 'Investors Chronical' (a chronic publication if there was one), yo continue with "The perched water issue will be resolved. Dr T will finally persuade the market that he’s right ..."

Make yer mind up.

DC,

" I don't know if they (BP) have clout with the OGA"

You'd better believe it, yes, they do! You only have to look at the DSCC site for proof. BP can apply for a licence for something and it's sometimes 'approved' the next day. Whereas for littler fish it may take weeks.

"Why has it only now become necessary to determine the maximum extent of the Lincoln field? "

A very good question.

"As part of the Lincoln field appears to fall within PMO' Licence block they would surely have a valid reason for making representations to the OGA."

OK, sure. But what be (or not be) Premier's relationship with BP? I don't know. But will try to find out.

The more I think about it, the more I feel sure that Hurricane is being 'squeezed' right now. There's a story here.

DC,

Your post is certainly interesting.

But another excerpt;

"When you think about it the pipeline has finite capacity and connecting to it will reduce the current spare capacity. What's in it for the pipeline owners? Are they driving a hard bargain as they know that HUR and Spirits options are limited..."

WOSP is 'owned by assorted partnerships. But is 'Operated' by BP.

Just for info.

JoeSoap,

Your post proves my point.

PMO's Solan "is expected to boost field production to in excess of 10 kbopd during the fourth quarter of the year."

Meanwhile, Hurricane's little 'Early Production System', which is nothing but a shoestring-budget data-gathering 'experiment' is happily exporting 18-20 k bopd average, via a contracted deal with BP, via shuttle tanker. Just to get rid of the stuff while gathering said data, but making money at the same time. Not trickling it into a stupid subsea storage-tank thing, and having to pay for export. Said stupid subsea tank requiring mortgage payments.

Apples and pineapples.

DC,

"I am more inclined towards JoeSoap's suggestion that its PMO."

Let's just say that's another (possible) line of enquiry...

Personally I don't think PMO has the 'clout' to be able to influence OGA. Plus Hurricane's relinquished Strathmore (just next door to Solan) so PMO can carry on wild goose chasing to their heart's content in that white elephant area.

It'll be interesting to read an eventual RNS from PMO regarding their latest drilling, though. !!!! ;-))

Longwait,

"Sorry you don't like my updates on fatality numbers, Double, but they do suggest the epidemic is well in retreat in many countries, and that was the point of my posting the numbers - not to promote a Eurovision contest."

No sweat. It's simply that this entire CV19 story is doing my brain in, to the extent that I can't even watch the TV news any more because that's what it'll all be about. Plus the airlines going bust, and how the 'economy' is going to hell on a handcart.

"As I've said before, I don't understand the reason given by the OGA for refusing permission to tie LC back, and I agree with you that there is something suspicious about it."

Holdup of the tieback is something I think (maybe) I can understand. But insisting on the small print and demanding P & A of the existing well stinks to high heaven.

"It doesn't make sense to me that the OGA should be making things difficult for HUR to develop its assets."

Unless (see earlier posts) they're being 'leaned upon' by bigger players. This is something I might look at clser, because my journalistic investigative nose is beginning to twitch.... There's a story in there, somewhere.

And it's something which can be 'done from home'.

DC,

"Sidetracking from the commitment well is a fairly obvious option. "

Yes.

But again, that would require further 'pemitting', and as you've mentioned, depends on the actual location. Also, the company has made no mention of intention to do such a thing.

I don't want to appear negative. But my gut feeling (not a nice one) is that Hurricane is currently being 'pressured' by outside sources. People who don't like their noses having been put out of joint by the obvious success of the company's achievements so far.

That may sound conspiracy-theorist, but it fits in place perfectly.

DC.

"MVB55
I think the answer is yes."

Mmmm. Yes.

I thought 'MCB55' was up to speed, but he obviously isn't.

That's one of the problems. People who look at Hurricane 'now', but haven't researched the earlier stuff which is the backbone of the entire project.

Look at Hurricane 'as is', with their little EPS producing a mere 20,000 bbl /day West of Shetland, and it may seem a bit less sexy than something like UKOG. But HUR investors aren't concentrating on the hight of the heels.

Or rather........ they are.

DYOR

Bloobird,

Carrying on from johnpwh's message.

"I wouldn't worry about it unless this goes on 6 months or more. My Lotus often sits six months in winter and hasn't been a problem. "

Regarding petrol, if you have to lay up a car for any length of time, make sure it has a full tank. In which case, you sholdn't have any problems.

Myself, I drive an oil-burner. And what's bothered me is the tyres. During the two-month lockdown in France I've only driven about 30 km with it, compared to the normal 500 km / week as normal. Yesterday, to celebrate 'easing', I went for a 50 km drive just for the heck of it. Today, a far shorter distance, but some required maintenance like changing the air-filter, a thing I was about to do before lockdown, but couldn't during that time in the underground carpark where my vehicle lives. But at the same time, checked the tyre - pressures. Definitely wrong. Rectified that with my little electric tyre-pump thing.

Leaving anything on 'standby' is no good, be it a car, a woman, or an oilwell.