Member Info for adoubleuk

* 'Him'

Elon Musk

Sailplane,

Thanks for the link ! I hadn't heard that Toyota had come up with a new 'description' of a hybrid car. I just switch of when advertisements for new (and especially 'green') cars come on the telly. Not interested. I'll stick with my 16-year-oild oil-burner, thanks.

But I looked at the video, scratched my head for the first few minutes looking at the picture of the camshaft cover saying 'synergy drive', but then found that the whole clip bas a debunking exercise, and yes, it's just another hybrid.

So great fun.

As you can guess, I'm hugely sceptical about the entire electric car thing. And also I consider him to be a dodgy bit of work, especially with his publicity stunt during that cave-rescue in Thailand a year ago, and his stupid 'submarine'. 'Cos I happen to personally know a few of the team that eventually got those 'stranded' boys out of their predicament.

But nevertheless, I watched the SpaceX liftoff yesterday evening, and was full of admiration when it went perfectly. The footage was really cool.

But couldn't help getting this niggling sarcastic thought in the back of my mind. No matter how sleek the rocket, how fashionable the spacesuits, how sheng fui the inside of the capsule looks, it still involves a lot of loud noise, smoke, and flames. Now get one of those to run on electricity and I might start to be impressed.

Oh bother. Hit 'send' too quick.

I don't know where I got the idea that ESP VSD equipment commissioning was previously supposed to be in Jan / Feb. But I know I didn't dream it. I've a feeling it was in the quarterly report from November last year. Or maybe the interim financials. Or some other document. But back-checking all such stuff is tedious, I haven't saved all of it, and anyway it's the past. Doesn't alter what is now.

JoeSoap,

"So when did they get more information to decide that they would not need to commission the ESPs?"

Easy. When the wells were actually put onto production via the FPSO. Performance was even better than during the initial DST's, indicating that the DST periods weren't long enough to fully 'clean up'.

"But the whole story of why they have still to be commissioned is a bit of a conundrum, because they had planned to use them from the outset "

Yes, and that puzzles me as well. Sure, as someone else has posted, one would have expected the actual 'surface gubbins' to have been factory-checked prior to installation on the boat in Dubai. And also for some of the relevant technicians were down there at the time, ensuring that power from the FPSO's generators were properly plumbed in to the VSD's.

Nevertheless, it's not all plug and play. There's a big difference between (possibly) running the VSD's against 'dummy loads' in a shipyard, and checking that all's well when plugged intothe pumps themselves 2000 metres undeer the seabed, with all the extra cabling from the boat to the wellheads, etcetera, etcetera.

I suspect what MIGHT have happened was that the results immediately post-foil were so good that the job was postponed and put off, rather than interrupting the initial flow-testing. But of course, that's just guesswork. But now, obediently obeying Murphy's Law to the letter, now it's (maybe) found that having at least one ESP tested and running, CV19 has prevented the extra required one or two people to go out to ensure all's OK ! And that's all it would require. One or two people.

Again, this is just blue-sky thinking on my part. But it fits. But just like a piece of featureless sky in a jigsaw puzzle. If it fits, it may possibly be the right one.

proverloop,

Your post from Thursday:

"The plan was to commission the pumps, but restrictions on non essential personnel coming offshore at present has put this on the back burner. I can't see Hurricane actually using them anytime soon,(once they are commissioned) if the well or wells are flowing naturally, especially as we are still in the testing phase."

This is a technical thing which has been vexing my poor little brain for a couple of days now ! But at least it keeps me away from thinking about the SP, which is simply depressing.

My view differs from yours, in that I believe getting one of the ESP's on 7z into play asap might be a good idea. But not (when opened up) to increase production rate. But instead, to act as a 'stabilizing factor' as to that well's flow, which we've been told had become 'unstable', and that due to the excellent pressure communication factor with 6, risks making that well 'unstable' equally. Hence the shutin of 7z for now.

Right now, producing naturally, flow is going through the 'Y bypass' AROUND the ESP's. So the only 'limiting control mechanism' for that flow is the wellhead choke on the seabed. So if (as I suspect) the well is 'slugging' due to the water-cut, all sorts of weird pressure-transients are taking place all along the production string, including below the packer. This could be potentially damaging, especially if some sort of harmonic set itself up, leading to positive feedback.

However, with one of the ESP's on 7z was kicked in, it might (nb 'might', just opinion) act as a 'second choke', a lot closer to the OH than the wellhead choke. In other words, run the ESP, giving the same bottomhole drawdown pressure (ie no flow increase), but against a far more pinched-in wellhead choke setting.

I've a feeling this might not only tend to 'stabilise' things a bit (because you wouldn't have those transient pressure differences going up and down 2000 metres of tubing), but also by the oil / water mix going through the pump, it may homogeonise the 'mixture' somewhat, reducing 'slugs' of water, followed by 'slugs' of oil / gas running through the system.

Just thinking aloud here. Might be wrong.

Like others here, I thought the ESP VSD's were supposed to be in the comissioning phase during Jan / Feb. That was before this 'lockdown' idiocy. I hope it gets prioretised as things ease.

Tysonfury123,

" I know it’s in different situation as HUR is earning but they need money to continue to drill, extract, develop the Full Field etc "

Not 'abusing your comments' as you put it. But it has NEVER been Hurricane's intention to go to Full Field Development all on their own. I think money already in the bank plus that to come should cover things like drilling and 'extraction' (not to mention O&GA for at least a year), by which point hopefully Oil in general might have perked up, and maybe they'll find the partner / buyer they've wanted right from the get-go.

Other than some technical bumps in the road, not to mention the CV19 black swan, things continue very much as the company guided at least five years ago.

Malrees,

Excerpts from your post:

"My choice, once we have completed testing which is happening right now, is to drill 8 rather than rework 7. "

Same message as I've been preaching here for a while ! Not that little PI shareholders on a BB have any influence on the company's technical decisions.

"I accept it is more expensive"

I don't personally think so, when one takes into account production downtime that would be required"

,"but more certain, especially given that we would be using the latest technology during the drilling to avoid perched water."

Sorry, don't agree there either. The point of using 'latest technology' (which isn't much different from that used while drilling 7z) wouldn't be 'avoiding' perched water zones, but instead 'identifying' them for potential isolation prior to completion, through correllation with previous LWD logs, especially those of 7z.

"A new well would leave us with the options we have now, whereas reworking 7 would remove back-up during the rework. The majority of people with actual experience on the drilling floor would say there is a higher risk with a rework than with a new well "

Yes.

Also, with the OGA decision to allow P&A of LC to be postponed, the company has a rig ready to go., the PBLJ, currently moored just outside the Moray Firth. Her first job was going to be Lincoln, but that's obviously changed. In fact, we don't know the state of the contract, now. It may be on indefinite hold due to CV19 'force majeur'. Certainly the move from Norway to Scotland didn't come under 'mobilisation' at HUR's expense.

I have enormous doubts if a re-entry and workover of 7z has got anywhere much beyond the conjecture and 'possibility' stage. Whereas a new well should already be pretty much planned, technically. Thy're fairly generic. The only big decision being where exactly to locate it, what depth the horizontal should target, and which direction it should go in. Though one also needs to calculate in getting reglementary approval for such a new well.

ronok,

"Can I just condense other questions. Will the recent advances in MWD / LWD eqipment improve Hurs chances of finding good fractures [hopefuully oil filled ] ?"

I'm not sure enough to give a yes / no reply to that.

I feel that the major benefit of the newest technologies will have its major benefit in identifying potential water zones in later wells. And this is not to say that absolutely the best equipment will have been used on the two existing wells.

Fractures (and thus optimal drilling locations) are initially based on seismic data. Seismic doesn't tell you what those fractures contain, though.

The company will have gone over existing LWD logs obtained while drilling (especially 7z) to see if there are sone sort of 'fingerprints' coinciding with this now empirially-proved perched water. Information possibly not exactly 'overlooked' when 7z was beng drilled, but just not recognised. So if / when well 8 is drilled, they'll know if there's possibly a zone which needs to be 'isolated'. And such 'isolation' will almost certainly be part of the drilling operation, not later, when the well is completed.

ronok,

"Could these radical improvements result in a Control Room being established in the rig with drilling being controlled by information being fed up through the drill string ?.
Would imagine drilling times would be extended but the potential to get better information could be transformational to the end results. Daylight would not be an issue so the Control Room could operate 24/7... Would posters with experience and connections in the O & G industry be willing to investigate and develop further?"

This is essentially what exists already. With a 'nuance', however.

The MWD / LWD 'shack' is where downhole data is number-crunched by their computers. Certainly their is an MDW readout screen at the driller's post at the rigfloor,, though rarely LWD, because the data observed on the screen requires expert interpretation by the LWD engineer. There is usually an MWD readout in the Company Man's office, as well. Also (both rigfloor and Co-Man's office) there is another screen showing data from the 'Mud-Logger's 'shack'.

Usually these days, MWD and LWD data is also being fed back to town, and being watched by another engineer.

The onsite Geologist will normally be bouncing around between these various places on the rig, and usually with readouts in his own office. And everyone is in communication with each other.

However, there's just one thing. It's very rare to find a 'fully integrated rig' with everything all lumped together. Because actual control inputs for steering, for instance, are made by the Driller on the rigfloor. Sure there are certain 'autopilot functions', but they are just like an aeroplane's autopilot: you don't want it to steer you straight into a thunderstorm ! The thing being, the rig belongs to the Drilling Contractor, and is operated by their personel. The other 'units' (and personel) are 'third-party'. Hurricane for instance uses Schlumberger. The next oOperator may want Halliburton. So off comes the 'Blue Army's' stuff and on goes 'Big Red'.

Despite huge advances in the equipment, the entire process remains very much dependent on human decisions, sometimes made quickly, in the field, by responsible people.

Longwait,

''the fundamentals haven't changed'
It's interesting that you, as an oil man - or ex-oil man - should say that."

An unfortunate fact of life. 'Once an oilman, always an oilman'. Or at least if one's spent a lifetime career doing that stuff. And even if one hasn't stepped foot on a rigfloor for five years. It's not a 'job', it's a way of life.

Rather like another saying. 'Old cavers don't die, they just smell that way'.

DrQu,

"I think the point is where are all the fossils that should show the transition of animals which co-habit with us today. "

Last September, for my birthday, someone who is a quite frequent correspondent here, and a shareholder, and a person who I trust 100% , sent me card through the post. On it wass a drawing of an Ammonite, with the caption 'You Old Fossil !' Which brought a huge grin to my face on that day.

The 'fossil record' remains somewhat 'patchy', but 'gaps in the record' isn't a reason to not try to intuitively try to figure out what went on in between. Some of them (like myself) just hunker down and retain a low profile....

In my living-room I have a glass case containing a whole slew of geological 'specimens' from assorted places I've travelled to, some assorted very old bones such as a cave-bear jaw (approx 15,000 years old), assorted fossils, and so on. Not to mention a watch which 'died' on me instead of myself dying, which would have been the logically correct thing really, during a very scary cave-diving incident.

But the thing I really like the best is a flint 'scraper', from the Mousterian period. Approx 35,000 years old . Give-or-take a thousand years or so. An artifact fashioned by a Neanderthal, before Cro-Magnon came on the scene. And the lovely thing is, picking it up and holding it, it fits perfectly into one's hand. Yup, if I wanted to scrape the fur off a rabbit skin, that tool would still work as well as any modern knife.

There's a lot we DON'T know.

AquaeSullis,

"ADUK always respect your views but things have changed from a risk perspective. Hur only have one wheel (or should that be well) on their wagon now 3

Thank you for the compliment.

HOWEVER. I wrote 'fundamentals haven't changed'. Nothing about 'risk factor'. And yes, I'd be foolish not to agree that maybe it's stepped up a notch. But how (from an 'investment' point of view) does it compare with let's say four years ago?

Also, sorry, but Hurricane does NOT have just 'one wheel on the waggon'. 'Shutting in' 7z has just require a contro-room operator pishing a few buttons, functioning some solenoid-operated valves on the wellhead xmas tree, manifold, and the FPSO itself. It'll probably also involve a 'pigging run' to clear the flowline untill the well's re-opened, but no big deal. Won't affect 6.

The only big setback is this CV19 madness which has seemingly caused down-manning, and thus a delay in getting the ESP control system uprunning. But having just wasted half an hour of what's left of my life watching your Prime Minister on the telly, I don't reckon the CV19 scam can go on for much longer. Unless someone sends a well-aimed RPG round down Downing Street, at which point it's anyone's game.

I've posted it here before, but will do so again, because (although just opinion), I believe it to be true. The IMPORTANT bit in the RNS was that the company can no longer sustain it's forward-looking 'production target' for the year. And (obviously) is unable to publish a new one for now. Such news is self-evidently 'price-sensitive', and HAD TO BE PUBLISHED before the AGM.

The fact that this is due to having (temporarily, in my opinion) shut in 7z is secondary.

By the way, I expect a 'green box' to appear shortly after I've hit the 'send' for this post ! But if so, that poster will have wasted their time, 'cos I'm not hitting any 'unfiltered' tonight. Just watched a real comedian on the box. Unfortunately he didn't fall over with a heart attack, though by the way he looked, I was halfway expecting it.

AquaeSulis,

"Yes, Fracture Basement has been proven to work, but they are still novel and unpredictable, as demonstrated by Dr T's own statements re their unpredictability. First oil was Jun 19 and yet only 5 mths worth of usable data has been gathered so far "

OMG. What am id oing banging on this keyboard instaed of turning on some TV news to see if the PM's 'advisor' has been strung up from a lamp -post yet?

Guess I'm a masochist. But I prefer oilfield stuff to politics, any day.

However, I feel I must say I utterly disagree with one thing you've written. But with the usual caveat that it's only my personal opinion and interpretation of things.

"only 5 mths worth of usable data has been gathered so far "

No. Totally and utterly disagree. It's a 'misinterpretation of the message'.

ALL the data gathered so far since First Oil is without a doubt 'useable' and technically very valuable. All the way down the line. And there must be terrabytes of it by now.

The company has always said that 6 months of 'stable production' from the EPS and the Aoka Mizu would be required before firm conclusions could be drawn, regarding further financial decisions about Full Field Development. We've recently been informed that despite tanker-loads of oil having already been exported, keeping the company and the project in positive cashflow, they only consider the 'steady-state' trials to have been 'ongoing' for five months. And now, it's been found that there's some 'instability'. And so, as a result, some changes have been made. Which means, obviously, that the 'experimentation' EPS phase before making any huge decisions about FFD is going to go on for longer than previously hoped-for.

So at no point have we been lied to. Data gathered so far hasn't been hyped-up in some attempt to make a sow's ear seem like a silk purse.

Hey! I'm just going to wait 'til tomorrow. If this thing 'bounces', I'm going to sell my latest top-up at a profit. Might keep me in cigarettes and beer for a week. But if it starts 'red', I'll be charging in and topping-up again.

That simple.

It's an old, well-worn and boring phrase. But 'the fundamentals haven't changed'.

Unlike many other AIM - listed O & G outfits.

DC,

Responding to you before even having read more recent posts from others. Nevertheless, here goes...

"aboubleuk and cocopops.. You have both overlooked another possibility. Extinction Rebellion want North Sea oil closed down. https://theecologist.org/2019/may/21/extinction-rebellion-protests-bp-agm HUR is planning to develop a massive new field so why would it not be in their sights. Why would discussion boards be immune from their activities. Apart from the usual suspects look at those who continually belittle and undermine."

Noted.

But 'extinction rebellion' is a very disparate and disorganised 'social-media' grouping, which functions as much on the premise that young people like to get together and cause mayhem as anything else. Heck ! I remember when I was like that ! But didn't attend 'demonstrations' and never liked to be involved with 'crowds'. Except at the occasional rock-music festival, of course, but usually even then I was behind the mixing-board or backstage. Same goes for my truckracing stuff.

'Extinction Rebellion' isn't Greenpeace.

Also, especially with certain CV19 issues, I don't see thousands descending on Lower Easham ! (Unless it were for a rock festival: the field just before the rickety bridge would be a fine place for one !) Nor do I see 'em going up to the cold and miserable Granite City.

No. I consider 'Extinction Rebellion' very similar to the 'Gilets Jaunes' my side of the channel. Civil disobedience, helped on by some radical factions. But disorganised. And we haven't heard a squeak out of Greta Thumsuck recently, have we?

DENSH,

"Surely with the amount of data we now have on Lancaster it’s got to be a priority to crack on and drill well 8?"

Personally, I sincerely hope so. Though with the proviso and understanding that Poo and CV19 have put a spanner in the works, possibly also OGA if they insist on Lincoln Crestal being P & A'd.

If the decision is instead made to 'work over' 7z, rather than drill a new well, I'll be out of here and you probably won't hear from me again.

One very salient point struck me while watching that mess of a 'CMD webcast'. The CEO was not his usual confident smily self. OK, sure, who is with this stupid CV19 lockdown malarky? But there's something else.... The company has expanded, and changed. The man's now got 'worries' he didn't have, even just a couple of years ago, with an efficient tight-knit team. If he get's browbeaten into NOT drilling a completely new well, maybe a kilometre away from the two 'producers', it'll be a sign he's no longer 'in charge'.

Modestus,

"Who do you think are those people who deliberately don't want HUR to succeed? Are you thinking of oil majors/companies/individuals ? People who claim it is impossible to develop commercially viable oil out of fractured bassins on the UKCS?"

I suspect it's a mixture. Regarding 'Big Oil', one obviously sticks out like a sore thumb. BP. They turned down the idea of partnering-up with Dr Trice years ago, and are now eating crow pie, being contractually obliged to buy the oil from Lancaster ! In marine oil-tanker-loads, not piffle like Udog. Those BP shareholders who've actually heard of HUR (probably a small minority) are probably scratching their heads and wondering what the BoD were thinking of, turning down such an opportunity.

Then, there is the 'geological / academic' community. There are a lot of people who've signed papers and articles saying that Fractured Basement 'won't work'. So they'd just love to see Hurricane 'buried'. Personal pride, professional knowledge, etcetera...

And then of course, there's the stockmarket. 'Cocopops' has just posted some good stuff about this, with which I agree, so no need for me to repeat it. But with the passage of time, especially since having been involved with this share, I've come to learn something. The 'trading world' when it comes to London - based O & G is quite small. Lots of those people seem to know each other. So yes, using multiple pseudonyms on different BB's, they can sometimes 'move' an SP, especially if sometimes they acquire inside information prior to its publication.

So yes, beware BB's ! Personally now, there are just a few people who I still trust to be honest. Some of whom I've never even met, other than on this chatboard. But there are others, so I remain wary. The money the 'traders' make has to come from somewhere. And it's usually ourselves, the gullible little PI's.

Especially those who call me a 'comedian' for just stating my opinion that shutting in 7z is a sort of unwelcome technical glitch, probably temporary, and not the end of the world. And also have the nerve to expect people to read their doom-mongering, when they have absolutely no oilfield qualifications to back up their rumour-mongering. But may have significant monetary interest in other companies who might also like to see Hurricane Energy 'buried'.

arthurchance,

"This share is an honest mans share, that wants to believe in a good story. "

Well said. Except that should be past tense. WAS an 'honest mans share'.

"Trouble is, the stock market is not a honest place to make money. It’s all pitfalls and sly people. "

Absolutely agree. 'Pitfalls' can sometimes be avoided if one looks where one treads. But sly and dishonest people can be trickier to spot. I don't consider Hurricane having temporarily shut in 7z to be a pit I've fallen into. Just another bump in the road. But someone treating me as a 'comedian' for saying that is a person I can't trust.

There's often talk about 'share price manipulation', an idea I partially (but only partially) agree with.

But there's another Idea I become more and more convinced by, even if it may sound paranoid and conspiracy-theorist. That being, there are some people out there who deliberately DO NOT WANT HURRICANE TO SUCCEED. For assorted reasons.

So then, of course, one has to decide on which side of the fence to sit. Which army to join for the battle.

If it's war they want...

Digby04,

"That's unlike you! Sorry to hear that you didn't win big - especially as we were relying on you to splurge your winnings on HUR shares tomorrow. :-( Better luck next time!"

Thank you for the sympathy; And goodness knows, I need it ! Yesterday (regarding the card game) really was 'one of those days'. No 'bad beats' in particular, just some 'unfortunate encounters' where even if I had a dam good hand, someone else had better, and concealed the fact well. Hey - ho ! Can't win 'em all.

And honestly, I don't care, even if it was an expensive day. It's the first time I've had the company of other people (except in the street, at 2 metres distance) for two and a half months. And also, one of the players was a young lady who I still (foolishly) like a lot (in a 'platonic' way: she's 'spoken for'), and it's the first time she's stepped foot in my flat for about two years, following a serious misunderstanding. But we're now back on speaking terms, fortunately.

So for a sentimental and lonely old git like myself, the heck with the money, yesterday was good.

The only thing is, it'll mean if the MM's open this share 'in the red' tomorrow, I'll have to rattle the piggy-bank to make yet another top-up, rather using some ill-gotten gains !

But tomorrow is another day...

HeresHopin,

"Clearly some people were totally ****faced last night, judging from the some of the rants on here.3

Yup, and I was one of them !

Longwait,

"Well, maybe there is something fishy going on - and if you uncover it, that doesn't make you a 'conspiracy theorist' any more than a detective on the track of a criminal gang."

I might also be completely wrong.

Amongst 'Hurricane holders', I've met quite a few, and I still consider the as 'friends' and honest people, even if we're not in contact recently, of late.

There are others however who I haven't actually met, and who in the past have sought my 'friendship' because of my technical oilfield experience and knowledge.

I now don't trust such people (unmet, personally) further than I could throw 'em, because they're fat.

No names, no packdrill.

But throw me off their website for exposing a bit of truth? Their problem, not mine. I'm a terrier, who keeps digging to find out what's happening down that rabbit-hole.

This is not 'conspiracy-theory' to my mind. (Though of course I'm maybe mad, and quite wrong.) But I truly believe that there is a 'group' who are doing their utmost to 'rubbish' Hurricane Energy. Through whatever means possible.