Member Info for adoubleuk

Sorry. Forgot to add the 'rider'

At the end of my post I wrote

"Nope. No 'witch-hunt'. But definitely on the trail of these people. They can try running, but they can't hide. And I've now got nothing to lose, anyway."

But I didn't add the whole nine yards.

I've had comms from various people. Some very intersting, an thanks ! friends. You've also had replies.

But the others?

Be warned. I am armed and dangerous, and a lot less fat than you.

Longwait,

I don't want to fall into the trap of being branded as a 'conspiracy-theorist'

But wrt your post, from which this excerpt:

"I'm sure neither you nor I, for example, would allow an accusation like that to go unanswered.

I was wondering how you figured out before I did that IAR = TSD. I have a feeling it had something to do with Trigger and Rigged being remarkably similar."

I an now 90% convinced that ther's a nice little 'cabal' of traders, in touch with each other, who 'walk the market' up and down, maybe 'specialising' in one market or another.

Me, I'm just not interested in pharmceuticals, nor frozen pizza. No knowledge of that, so why get involved ?

Me, I'm O & G, and that's something I do know about.

But there are some people trying to walk all over us.

Peter Brailey on 'pussphrophets' is none other than the erstwhile PiJoe here, banned by LSE because he's had a serious run-in with the FCA.

Fact. Go check.

Now, in want to know more about SiPP, who hasn't posted here for ages, but wormed his way into 'inside knowledge', traded on it, and I was banned from 'his' site.

I've had a lovely day. A 'zoom-meeting' with some old schoolfriends, with participants joining in from the UK, France, Belgium, Luxembourg, and New Zealand.

Followed by a poker-game at my place, which for myself was financially disatrous for myself, but what the heck? Eight 'friends' round the table, not much animosity, plenty of friendship, instead, s**t, better than this 'lockdown madness' endured for the last two months.

Nope. No 'witch-hunt'. But definitely on the trail of these people. They can try running, but they can't hide. And I've now got nothing to lose, anyway.

Just found this.

Beautiful.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x4tJiyU_gjY

"TSD/ ItsallRigged has posted only one comment on JOG since creating his new account and is concentrating on HUR because the price has slumped.

His speciality is trying to demoralise investors and defame long-term investor/posters, accusing them of trying to sucker in 'newbies' to get them to lose money."

Yup. Plenty of other aliases, as well.

But now the game's up.

Longwait,

"ItsallRigged is the poster TSD, who was banned."

Not the only pseudonym masqueraded under.

The net is slowly closing in.

I KNOW which particular element failed which caused Macondo be be the disaster it became. Unfortunately, it's buried about 15,764 metres under the seabed of the Gulf of Mexico now, so can show no proof.

However, these jokers doing their best to trash Hurricane are out in the open... And probably running scared. Because nicely, slowly, they're being caught up with.

No 'whistleblowing' yet, but when it comes?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t4W3Nbx1iT0

Someone's going to get 'banged-up, doing time'.

But it won't be Dr Trice.

Sgurr,

" Any oil company has to determine, given the financial/legislative constraints and current reservoir model, what target areas give us the largest probability of success. In this case 'success' means production, but also data acquisition with a view to justifying the production case for other similar 'segments' of the reservoir. Hence, they really do need another producer in this area - the water cut/interference issues are steaming up the mirror somewhat."

I like your 'steaming up the mirror' analogy. Quite agree.

Also, with the rest of your response.

But with a 'rider'.

I also agree with you that a nother well is now required.

But if I hear any squeak of news that instead of drilling a 'Lancaster 8', a decision has been made to instead re-enter 7z for a 'remedial workover', (an idea mentioned during the CMD), I will personally be getting out of Dodge as fast as f**kin' possible, and you won't see me for dust.

What do you reckon?

Happyinvestor100,

"I don't want to upset anyone."

Sure. But you've certainly caused a few laughs, which is good, so early on a Sunday morning, during these grim times.

Modestus,

"Happy Investor should better change his nickname into Mr. Flipflop. "

Yup. Like one of those flipflops washed up on a beach, with half the strap-bit missing, and possibly covered in jellyfish slime. Of zero value to anyone.

Happyinvestor100,

"The story will end with the creditors taking control of Hurricane and trying to use the EPS to recover some of their loans."

Creditors? Name them, please.

Loans?

What loans?

Dickbat,

"That is the most ridiculous comparison I’ve ever heard of "

Hear hear!

Excite's Bentley field never stood a chance (technically) of being commercially worthwhile.

'Happyinvestor100' hasn't a clue what he's on about in that respect.

However, towards the end of his post, there's a VERY interesting phrase.

"Fractured reservoirs basins will die a quiet death with the only the most devoted of oil afficianados willing to waste time chronicling them."

Yeah, right. Go tell that to the Vietnamese.

There is a sector (in my opinion) who simply DO NOT WANT Hurricane to succeed, because it'll mean egg on their own faces, and a strict diet of crow pie for a while. These peoples' presence should not be ignored, even if the drivel they promulgate is rubbish. For this reason, I'm not going to filter 'Happyinvestor100', 'cos there's nothing funnier than watching someone shoot themselves in the foot. Especially as they usually forget to pick up the spent cartridge. And a look at the serial number will show if it might not have been bought at the same gunsmith's as where some other shady characters shop...

Sgurr,

Yours is a good post, and I'm glad to see some people have hit the 'recommend button' for it. It's good to see I'm not alone (says he, immodestly), are still keeping an eye on the actual nuts an' bolts of the thing. Unlike those twirps trying to compare it with SXX and other nonsense like that, while sadly looking at their shattered piggy-banks.

Some comments, if I may. I'd welcome replies from you.

"it’s likely a ‘back pressure’ issue (hate to use that term as its ultimately frictional energy losses). Essentially the wells are likely too close to each other, with production not mutually exclusive. As flow increases in one well, this exerts influence on the flow regime of the other, ‘pulling‘ on its local resource if you like, net result is there is a flow rate sweet spot to be achieved, ultimately governed by the local permeability (as they have discovered)"

Yes - ish ! The close proximity of the wells has maybe not turned out to be a great thing. But 'no blame'. Thinking on it, the decision was probably made as much from subsea infrastructure logistical reasons, as from further downhole reservoir / geological ones. Two widely - distanced wells might have had a lot more difficulty meeting approval for the EPS, instead of the 'neat package' that it is. Would have cost more, also. What do you reckon?

" this is O&G exploration and such things happen. This is absolutely not a disaster3

100% agree.

"the only way to regain the markets confidence - data from a new producer."

Hmmm. Maybe only partially agree. Let's see what happens with 6 'going solo' and being ramped-up, and even more importantly when the VSD control-systems for the ESP's are commissioned, and 7z brought back online. Plenty of playing around still to be done, although a further well would make the 'trainset' prettier.

"Plenty of rigs available, a new generation of LWD resistivity tools to work with, giving far greater depth of investigation into the reservoir. "

Yup. And probably now, dirt cheap.

"if he [Dr Trice] really believes in the reservoir model, take the risk with available capital while services are as cheap as they will ever be."

Yes, again. But there's a slight snag. There are some people out there who will do their utmost to try to say that Dr Trice and Hurricane is wrong. Just like Hoover stated if they'd managed to lambast Dyson into selling his patents. They'd have put his machine onto the shelf and never brought it to market. Because their business makes money out of selling dust bags, not vacuum cleaners. In much the same way that BP makes most money selling inedible food in motorway service-areas, not petrol.

AquaeSulis,

"ADUK , "Nevertheless, on Tuesday, no matter how the card game goes, if the SP opens 'red' I'll be charging right in for yet another top-up." I doubt you would be that reckless on the poker table with such average hole cards."

You're probably right. But it depends what sort of mood I'm in ! And just sometimes I throw the maths to the wind and follow my instinct.

I far, far prefer to find myself holding a pair of tens than a pair of jacks. Makes decision-making a whole sight easier, come the 'flop'.

Hmm. I post, and a 'green box' suddenly appears. Suspect the usual idiot, so turn off the filter to check. Goodness me, not he !

So check some more.

Hello, 'ItsallRigged' !

Yeah, but by whom? People who've already had trouble with the FCA?

Don't bother replying, 'cos I've already turned the filter back on. But I reckon I know who you are. Just time to join some more dots.

whyalla,

"Thanks for the slugging info. Does the ingress of perched water cause the slugging ?"

This is what I believe. I don't have any 'inside info' that anyone else here doesn't have access to, so can't say I'm 100% certain. But it's a logical interpretation of everything the company's told us so far.

It would take too long to explain in detail. But 'slugging' is a common problem with any well with a water-cut, be it 'conventional' (usually due to aquifer 'coning') or 'unconventional' like 7z, and this pesky 'perched water zone'. Oil and water don't like to mix. So you get a sort of build-up of water, then the oil (and solution gas) decide they want to come out as well, so you get an intermittant sort of 'belching' effect. 'Intermittant flow', in other words. And this rattles the pipework somewhat, and can play merry hell with the wellhead itself and the rest of the downstream production train. Also, such fluctuations put stresses on the downhole 'completion string', and if that gets damaged. repairing it with a 'workover' would be very costly indeed.

So the company has made a wise move in shutting 7z in for a while, instead of going hell-for-leather 'production, production, production' just to make the financials look good. In my opinion. And it fits with the sort of 'honest approach' which is what attracted me to invest in Hurricane to start with. Sure, it's a gamble. But so is any O & G project. Nothing's guaranteed. But in this company's case, I've seen no evidence of management trying to pull the wool over shareholders' eyes.

(Except possibly last year, with the final part of the Aoka Mizu Odyssey, and the 'rope issue'. We never got an explanation of that, and watching the AIS 'live' was a bit frightening. But that's past history, nicely forgotten (except by dinosaurs like myself), and out of Hurricane's control, anyway. It was a Bluewater problem.)

Nope, to my mind, this is just a hiccup. (Another nice analogy for a 'slugging' well.)

And an absurd SP which to my mind is an open door to making some profit through trading.

An 'Early Production System' still doing 10,000 bopd approx from ONE WELL? It's daft. Utterly nuts. And on a shoestring. PMO's full-field Solan development at a huge cost doesn't manage 40% of that, and will NEVER pay itself off ! Sorry, 'PMO people', not trying to start a battle. But I know who I prefer to be invested with. And anyway, Hurricane's a lot more fun. Never a dull day.

Digby04,

"Good luck with your poker this evening. Hope you win big, so that you have enough dough to move HUR's sp north come Tuesday...!"

Thank you. Poker's tomorrow afternoon. It's only a small game between friends, so there won't be more than a couple of grand max on the table. And I'm not immodest enough to think I could grab the lot ! :-))

So not enough to move the SP ! And anyway, my bank / broker has a minimum buy size of 1500 euros.

Nevertheless, on Tuesday, no matter how the card game goes, if the SP opens 'red' I'll be charging right in for yet another top-up.

Oh bother, I hit 'send' too quickly.

Wrt 'Intermittant' or 'unstable' flow, otherwise known as 'slugging'.

I'm convinced (almost certain) that this is related to a topic discussed here about a week ago, when someone asked 'as perched water drains, what comes in to take its place' ? Which is a very good question.

A 'slugging' well can be thought of rather like liquid being poured out of a container (like a bottle) and it starts going 'glug glug' instead of coming out in a steady stream. Now think about why that is.

In the case of an oilwell, 'slugging' flow is undesirable for many reasons. For starters, on Lancaster, with the two wells being in fast 'communication', unstable flow on 7z will transmit pressure-transients across to well 6, possibly leading to instability there, also. But also, 'slugging' can put unwanted wear-and-tear on some of the equipment. In the same way than an inexperienced learner-driver can damage a car's transmission if allowed to let it 'kangaroo-hop'.

Temporarily shutting in 7z is NOT the end of the world, folks. We've known all along that AT LEAST six months' stable flow through the EPS was required before firm conclusions could be published about the field. More recently, the length of time and number of tanker offloads since First Oil notwithstanding, we've learned that the company doesn't consider the EPS to have reached 'steady state' yet. And that simply can't happen until the ESP's are commissioned, even if they're not switched on.

Think about testing a new racing-car. Do you expect it to go out and be an immediate winner?

This is just a pit-stop.

Apachewind,

"I wonder if 7z going down would encourage Oga to allow an LC link up to AM now."

WHERE in the RNS is there any mention of 7z having GONE DOWN ? There is none, and it's not even implied. The RNS is (unusually for Hurricane) very plain and straightforward. 7z's flow regime has become unstable. So the decision has been made to shut it in. And personally, I am convinced (although the RNS doesn't mention this) that this will be a temporary situation. At some point, after observation of the well and shutin pressures, the company will certainly open it up again, to see what its behaviour is like then.

For 'unstable', try a synonym: 'irregular flow'. This is technically known as 'slugging', and it's an undesireable situation for many reasons.

The RNS was NOT released to tell us that 7z has been shut in for now (temporarily) for the sake of giving us some technical knowledge. It was released to inform us that the company can no longer necessarily keep to its earlier forward-looking production target for the year. In advance of the AGM, because it would be a terrible move to announce it at that meeting, as an unpleasant surprise.

Shutting in 7z (for the moment) does NOT mean that Lancasster oil production is going to be cut by 50%. The sky is not falling.

To my mind anyone who has got scared and sold at a loss on account of the RNS has made a very bad move indeed. It's possible (I'm not an SP 'predictor') that the price will go lower next week. Because Poo has to play out, as well. But even if it goes lower than the price I paid for a scrambled top-up yesterday, it won't be for long. Time to make some easy money.

daltry,

Thanks for that link. I'll certanly onpass it.

I haven't listened to it in entirity, yet, partially because the speaker is (fo me) preaching to the choir. The thrust of his argument becomes clear early on, and it's one I agree with. It starts becoming really interesting (to my mind) at about 9 minutes in, when some startling facts (generally unbroadcast) start to be revealed.

Worzel,

"Paint whatever picture you will but todays rns is an absolute fxxxxxg disaster for existing shareholders"

No, you're wrong.

The RNS was some interesting technical news.

The market reaction and drop in SP may have been a f********************** disaster for some, but personally I reckon to make some profit out of it.

"Probably the beginning of the end for HUR."

Some of we longterm people probably see it as the end of the beginning...

sudnal,

"Guys, don’t waste your time and enjoy the weekend with your family."

Appreciate the sentiment, but some of us don't have 'family' with whom to enjoy the weekend.

However, don't expext many posts from me on sunday. Eight people rolling up to play poker chez moi. Sort of 'family' Having fun, probably getting into arguments, and so on. Same thing.