Member Info for adoubleuk

Longwait,

"I don't know at what price you started buying, Double"

Why not be honest? 17.3p, early 2016.

Hi JiffyBag,

See the night-shift's still on ! Despite being in a totally silent country place for now with just a delightful nightingale occasionally bursting into song, I can't sleep properly. 'Lockdown' has had its effects.

"For now we are just treading water are we not? "

Yes, I think so.

Despite the numbskulls expecting lots of 'news' from the AGM, depite us having been informed that no 'business updates' would be issued at that meeting, I too feel we're a bit in limbo. The rig hasn't moved. I very strongly suspect 'force majeur' clauses have been invoked regarding the contract.

Despite some rumours surfacing here and there, we don't know current production figures.

But the thing is, we ain't the only ones. The company isn't going to go broke tomorrow. Whereas some run that risk.

'Treading water' ? That takes some effort. I prefer this, sad as it may be...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U9GhL7LagNE

draft,

"what is hur planning to spend the cash on??"

Drilling further oilwells. Thereby generating more cash.

Dummy.

Longwait,

" I don't think the fact that people regret not having sold at 30, 50 or 60p, will prevent the price from recovering the whole way"

Hmm. I'm not as confident as you seem to be.

Just before replying, and reading your post, I was about to write saying I don't 'feel regret' (to quote Edith Piaf). When I suddenly realised that that was the word I'd used in my own, earlier post ! Please delete that word 'regret', and instead insert 'giving myself a hearty self-inflicted kick up the backside', even if it's a physical impossibility, or at least a bit of gymnastics I'm not going to attempt.

Because to be honest, I couldn't really understant the heady heights of the SP at its highs, either, unless (once again) there was a 'takeover rumour'. And back then, the basis for a potential was far more concretely tenuous than it actually is now. Don't forget that Hurricane's quaintly-called 'data-room' is something more appropriately described as a 'data-warehouse', including receipts for a number of tankerloads of oil sold into market via BP.

But at the same time, during the SP-catastrophic 'slide' of the last few months, and having decided to increase one's holding through top-ups, thereby 'averaging down' and just about ocasionally breathing air, even if one's head isn't all the time above water, surely one should become more modest about one's sell-out price?

There's nothing I'd like better than to see this go up to the 50p range once more, but I suspect I'll have bailed out two thirds of the way to there, for fear of not reaching altitude. Of course, if that happens, I'll be doing all sorts of own-arse-kicking acrobatics again, but that's just the name of the game.

Fred_Bloggs,

" I would be out like a shot for 30p, be delighted with 33p. For fun, I'd sell 90% of my shares and hang on to the rump holding."

You and me too ! With 20 / 20 hindsight, I deeply regret the way I handled my last 'topslice', which was 10% at 53p. It should have been 90% ! But I'm just so interested in the 'Hurricane story' that I allowed emotion to block common sense. Or was it really so blind? I don't think anyone could have foreseen the SP coming down to the current catastrophic and inexplicable levels.

I know someone else who for personal reasons essentially 'bailed out' (maybe not completely) when the 'slide' hit the mid-30p level. And I bet they're now glad to have done so then, rather than waiting.

Longwait,

"I think your estimate is way out, FB, and that you're allowing recent share price movements to override any reasonable valuation.

I am certain that the BOD and major shareholders would turn down such an offer as derisory and that it is so obviously derisory that it wouldn't be made in the first place.3

Hey ! Cut Fred_Bloggs some slack ! I asked him what he reckoned (in his opinion) would be a 'lowball' offer, and he's replied. I was asking about 'lowball', not an actual 'valuation' !

I find his answer interesting. And definitely 'low'. Myself I was thinking more in the 30p sort of range. I think even then, the BoD and some shareholders might fight hard against it, but possibly not all of them. How about 33p, a penny above the last placement price? It's all totally hypothetical, but I could understand the thinking of having just made a little profit, so take it and leave the thing to someone else. And of course whoever's buying in right now would be absolutely over the moon.

I'm exceedingly wary and sceptical of wild rumours about takeovers. But we do live in interesting times. And let's never forget that our major shareholder Kerogen is essentially Hong Kong based, despite its London offices. And some people 'blame' the start of the last eight months' slippery-slope downhill slide in the SP on Kerogen having done an 'untimely' and unexplained sell...

A conspiracy-theorist could probably come up with a nice strategic idea about that.

Fred_Bloggs,

"Low ball bid soon."

Uh-ho. Had to happen. A new 'takeover rumour' !

But out of interest, what sort of sum per share would you call 'lowball' right now?

Mr Zarniwoop,

How's the publishing going? You don't have any 'fake universes' going spare at the moment, do you? I sometimes feel I could do with one, just for a holiday, or something like that. 'Cos the current one I find somewhat confusing.

"AK, as a LTH, I too find the sudden influx of posts from blatant rampers / derampers frustrating."

Between doing important things (cutting a three-month growth of grass at a little place I haven't been able to visit due to 'lockdown', and while the strimmer battery has been recharging), I've been looking in on this BB. And although earlier on (during breakfast) I found it annoying, or 'frustrating' as you've put it, I now find it all rather curious.

Where have all these 'newbies' suddenly appeared from? Most of whom don't seem to have a clue about the company background or history; What has suddenly put Hurricane 'on the map' ? Why all the sudden interest?

OK, call me hopelessly paranoid if you want, but there's something smelling rather rat-like to me. I remember once visiting the offices of a big company in the City. I was there to meet a particular person, who first took me to lunch, and then talked afterwards more formally in his own, private office. But to get to his cubby-hole, we traversed a big open-plan 'office-space' with maybe sixty people or so sitting side-by side staring at computer screens, and sometimes talking into their headsets. A completely alien environment for me, seeing that some people actually 'work' like that.

OK, the company wasn't a financial house. An oilfield consultancy agent's place instead, but which operates worldwide.

But what if it were a stockmarket trader's office? Maybe the boss comes in one morning, and has posted an email instruction to those people at their screens to individually log in to LSE's HUR BB, and post some quick one-liner 'ramping' the share. Using corny old phrases like 'fill yer boots' and 'wouldn't want to be out over the weekend', such as we've seen today.

I'm not saying that's what we're seeing, but I don't think it's impossible, either.

Me, I usually just trust my instincts, so just holding, having done a couple of top-ups when the thing plummeted down. Damned if I'm going to sell those top-ups now for a 15% profit (though the temptation is there), because that just puts more 'available' shares back on the market.

NeverSayNever1,

" HUR being a great long term buy particularly at today's bargain basement pricing."

True, but these days, especially in these very uncertain times, I do suspect that most people define 'long' as the middle of next week...

"its all a bit stale, gone a bit quiet, Do we think its it for the day?"

Nah. It's lunchtime.

Cocopops,

"They're better-built, now!"
Probably, but my experience is last 5 years. And not so well built. In fact, multiple, expensive failures.
Again, possibly different ESPs and possibly a much different environment.
One issue is that these pumps would have been specified and sized before the well flowing conditions were 'known'."

Ah ! Now I'm beginning to enjoy this ! Because you obviously DO know what you're on about ! But let's not mention what colour coveralls you wear, because you don't want to get into trouble.

Agree. Though it's now six years since I've been 'in the field'.

But let's go back 8 years. And not specifically ESP's. It could equally (and more pertinantly) apply to 'directional' equipment, particularly rotary-steerable. There was a massive demand. So QA went out of the window. And we poor mothers in the field were going haywire (or rather not me, as Co-Man, but instead the Blue Army) when they got defective equipment.

However, ESP's are more 'permanent' stuff.

I don't think this should be pursued too much further without proper information.

The ESP's (we must assume) were properly installed during recompletion, and if not 'function-tested' (though I thought there was a way to do that) at the time, surely 'circuit-tested' at a later point. Plus the enetire 'Y-bypass' system.

This is a nasty thought. But one which HAS to be voiced.

Are the wells only being run on 'natural flow' (or rather now one well) because there is a PROBLEM getting the ESP's online?

Right. It might hurt the SP, and my own bank-balance, but a question worth asking.

Modestus,

More. Just as an anecdote.

Your message (repeated).

"Hello adoubleuk, i do hope you are willing to share your views with the company itself too. It would be a shame you only take time and effort to write your well founded views on a BB too full of punters when perhaps you could find an open ear at HUR. Sorry if this sounds naive. Thank you once more for your time and efforts!3

I'm writing from my little 'bolt-hole' in the country. A tiny place more or less in the middle of nowhere, in a hamlet comprising maybe twenty houses. Absolutely nothing flash. Woodburner stove (though unlit right now), had to fight my way through shoulder-high grass to get to the door, but snug as a bug in a rug now.

The oilfield was my life.

Sure, had other pastimes; Journalism. Truckracing. Speleology. Poker.

But the heck with the past tense, they're still with me now.

But 'oilfield' isn't a 'job', even if it's what paid the rent. It's (if one's properly into it) a 'way of life'.

The rug got pulled out from under me back when 2014 the crude price plummeted. And despite a few aborted attempts, and despite some offers at ridiculously low pay or abominal conditions, gave up on the idea of actively 'getting back in'. Have resigned myself to being one of the 'been there, done it' mob instead. Despite trying to keep as up-to-date as possible as to latest technology and what's going on.

But all that past knowledge and experience? No, I don't mind passing it on, for free. And also continue using it, to analyse what's still going on...

For me? Hey ! I want to see Hurricane succeed! Firstly because I want to make a bit of money (obviously), but I believe in the 'Hurricane Energy' story and Dr Trice's ideas. I've yet to meet him, but I'm sure we'd get on fine, as one oilman to another. (Except I don't like cigars.)

This BB is full of all sorts of rubbish of late. Some people might consider this post to be rubbish, as well. But that's their problem. If there's a tiger in the room, I want to be the one to comb its whiskers.

Modestus,

"Hello adoubleuk, i do hope you are willing to share your views with the company itself too. It would be a shame you only take time and effort to write your well founded views on a BB too full of punters when perhaps you could find an open ear at HUR. Sorry if this sounds naive. "

Thank you. Though it is just maybe a little bit naive.

As regards my 'suggestions', at the moment, and regarding the ESP subject, I see no reason I should contact the company about it, because I'm damned sure they're probably thinking upon exactly the same lines, maybe as an option, maybe already implemented. They don't need my help, because they've got a lot of people just as brainy as myself already on their payroll !

For me, though, it's a sort of game. I have no more information than anyone else here, but like to figure out from it what's actually happening, and what will come next. Or what's ACTUALLY happened!

OK, I've made some disastrous calls, especially regarding Warwick Deep. But equally, that was strange, because I was also at the same time receiving some very odd information, unasked-for, from some people I'd never even met.

However, yes, I do sometimes contact 'Hurricane Towers' but only if I have very good reason to. And just once or twice, with a suggestion. And even if my suggestion may have been passed on, I never receive acknowledgement for it. I was pleased as punch to see 'pre-laying' of rig anchors for the last drilling campaign. But maybe it was just coincidence.

Cocopops,

"Ok, granted I maybe don't know much about these particular ESPs. I've only been dipping in and out of the technical detail so I had not appreciated the use of these ESPs to balance production as opposed to simply boosting it.
I must admit that one of my early concerns with these wells was the potential need for ESPs as I've seen sub-surface ESPs craap out in no time at all on a few occasions. As you are no doubt well aware, that is one very expensive workover and I for one have been very happy that they have not been required. Maybe these are more robust though."

OK, in that case, forgiven, but just this once !

But with a proviso. A warning, almost. Lots of people come onto this BB with some somewhat half-baked semi-technical 'knowledge' based on maybe even past experience of some of the stuff involved. Yeah, you're right. ESP can be (or especially used to be) she-dogs ! Many were the N.Sea winter nights I spent as part of a rig-crew in the early '80's tripping an ESP completion out of the ground in the pouring rain and wind, covered in oil-base, just 36 hours after we'd run it in! Because the mother just ran for an hour and burned out on underload or something like that. 'Happy days? ?' Yeah, well, sort of.

They're better-built, now!

But the potential to use one on Lancaster to 'stabilize' things? Or 'balance production' as you put it? Not impossible. A topic which cropped up a couple of weeks ago, I twisted off in my usual way about it, but seems like Hammam are thinking the same thing.

All I'd like to know is why they're not fully commissioned and able to enter the game now. And CV19 is a lame excuse.

DC,

"Although addressed to you the questions are really ones that I would like to have answers from the Company.3

Yes, and me too !

I have no 'inside knowledge', and the way things seem to be going, I'm not flavour of the month with quite a few people, so what few 'whispers' I get here or there are drying up. Probably because I'm pretty dam good at figuring out what's actually happening though very incomplete knowledge.

You're asking pertinent questions, ones which I'd like answers about, as well. The trouble, is, the sort of ********s who get the airtime on things like the CMD aren't asking those questions.

For me, quite frankly, there are now three (dual) questions, which come back to more than six months ago. (1) Is produced water-separation part of the train fully functional? If not, why not? (2) Is the FPSO now being fueled by produced gas? If not, why not? Are the ESP VSD control-systems now functional? If not, why not?

As an LTH and now quite a longtime follower of this story, I can't say I'm exactly over the moon with the current state of things. I don't understand the enlargement of the BoD when surely they ought to be drawing their horns in, I was upset by the unexplained departure of Stobie, (and wouldn't trust his temporary standin further than I could throw him), I consider the 'Production Director to be ... well, just another..... 'production hand', and have a horrible feeling that the CEO is getting pushed to the side and to a slight extent losing the firm 'direction' of the company he formed.

These things bother me, I'll admit.

Maybe, if there's a further 'meeting' for shareholders, some of these questions might be addressed.

Cocopops,

"I'm not sure what all the panic is about the ESPs. "

I don't wish to seem insulting, but I do fear you're out of your depth here, and like many recent pozsters just picking up on some technical jargon without much of a clue what you're talking about. No, there is no 'panic' about the ESP's. You're correct in that; In the same way there's no 'panic' about anything operationally, except some 'panic-merchants' like to think that shutting-in 7z for the moment spells doom and gloom and the end of Hurricane, Lancaster, Fractured Basement plays, and so on.

¨"The wells (both of them for a wee while) are flowing happily without them so let them flow."

No, they are not. 7z is turning out to be something of a ginger-haired stepson, causing some trouble, and has been shut in for now.

"ESPs will often have a relatively short lifespan compared to the well. Also, they don't like being switched on and off and played about with. So...wait until later when everything is stable and they will give most benefit to the production."

In terms of overall well lifespan, let's say maybe 15 years or so, yes, ESP's may not last that long, and require a workover. But we're a long way away from that distant point up the road. And yes, they don't like 'on-off'. But what is it about VSD (Variable-Speed-Drive ) you don't understand, as you seem to be an expert about such things?

The point RIGHT NOW is that having the ESP's into the game is NOT to act as 'production enhancement' (as is usually the case), but instead to maybe (OK, just maybe), a way to 'stabilize' things, giving the 'right mix'.

I don't understand why the VSD's (and thus the ESP's) haven't been commissioned. Also, we now have all these new people on the BoD. Like a 'Production Director who appears brain-dead to me. There's a lot going on.

Cap'tSwag,

"my interpretation of that RNS was that both wells can't run well together"

That's a fair interpretation. But with a proviso. They RAN OK together, but after five months, 'instabilities' seemed to occur with 7Z, which due to the immediate 'pressure communication' (ak interference) with 6, could have magnified the problem.

There are a lot of people here who are mixing up the 'instability' of 7z with the 'interference'. The 'interference' is in fact a GOOD thing! Even if it might be causing a few headaches right now, leading to the current 7z shutin.

I dunno; Let's try to find an analogy. How about a pair of identical twins, both of whom are brilliant. But one little sister likes ZZ Top while the other one prefers Mozart. It's a bit like that.

Not mutually exclusive, but Ms ZZ Top has been confined to her bedroom for a while because of all the noise. But get 'em both listening to the Grateful Dead and an amazing synergy might ensue...

DC,

A long post, but good to see someone else is still looking at what's actually happening.

A few comments in reply, just for discussion's sake, because it seems we're norw in a minority discussing such things. Or even having some knowledge of them.

"You know as well as I that RT's primary concern is the acquisition of data. "

Yup. Even though it mustn't be forgotten that such data-acquisition involves producing and selling some oil!

I was rather surprised when, in the recent announcement they said they only had 5months data from nearly 12 months production. "Why?" would have been a good question to ask at the AGM."

I think it's a nuance. It refers (to my mind) to six months' EPS 'stable' with the two wells, but after just 5 months, certain 'instabilities' were observed.

"6 production will be ramped up but I suspect only when RT is happy with his data."

The ramp-up will provide new data regarding 6, but not the EPS as a whole system, also involving 7z. Not quite 'back to the drawing board', but different parameters. Again, don't forget, the 'data-acquisitin process may seem longwinded, but it involves producing and selling product.

" Other good questions would be why were the ESP not commissioned and when do they expect to revisit 7z if only for a test."

Yes; Quite agree. I do not understand why the ESP's have not been commissioned, CV19 madness notwithstanding. It should be a priority now, and would only involve two, maybe three specialists going out to the installation. At the same time, it would be nice to get an update on whether the fuel-gas system is up and running, etc.. "

"This has led to a decision to shut-in the 205/21a-7Z well for the time being and return to a period of testing maximum sustainable rates from just the 205/21a-6 well. "
How long is FOR THE TIME BEING?"

I don't know, and we're not being told. OK, cut 'em some slack, I don't think the company knows exactly, neither. There appear to be a lot of unknown variables at work right now, CV&ç stupidity not being the least. But equally, like any good 'experiment', you can't go changing or modifying things willy-nilly in the hope 'something will work'. 'Cos that just leads to confusion.

Given that everything seems to be going OK so far (or at least we haven't heard the opposite), it's probably not a good time to make any 'sudden moves'.

How long is a piece of string?

(Answer: it's the measured depth between rotary-table elevation and your drillbit.)

MaryMullins,

"Hurricane talk of reaching a “plateau” level of production from 6. I believe it has previously been tested in isolation for 50 days. Would my thinking that plateau production will take longer than 50 days be correct or not. Any help appreciated."

I'm assuming yours is a genuine question, it's one which intrigues me a bit, so I'd like to 'answer', with the caveat that I may be wrong !

I think it would be incorrect to place a specific 'timeframe' on what constitutes 'plateau production' from any particular well. Because neither the well nor the reservoir possesses a clock, nor know how to read such a human-construct sort of thing. All WE can do is watch the well's behaviour, easily readable through output curves and applying differing operational parameters, and try to recognise a 'sweet spot', or some sort of 'plateau' where it looks as though the well is 'happy' and will continue to produce in a stable manner at that rate. Sure, at that point, one may apply a period over which to continue observation to make ourselves 'happy' with the result, but really, it's totally arbitrary.

The same stuff is seen on a daily basis in normal oilfield operations; For instance pressure-tests, be it of pipework, specific equipment, a reservoir formation, whatever. 'The book' might say something like 'test for ten minutes, and if pressure has only fallen by 'x' psi, then it's ok'. But why not nine minutes? Or eleven? It's an arbitrary measure. The thing you're testing 'has no clock'.

But there's a thing. Well known to people who know their job and what they're dealing with. Usually, during some sort of 'ten-minute pressure test', you can tell if it's 'good' or not. If there's a leak, there's a leak, and there's no point continuing to 'bump up' the pressure to try and fudge the thing.

A 50-day 'plateau' of stable production on Lanc 6 ? That might be two tanker-loads full! I don't give a dam whether it's sixty days or 35. It's still money in the bank.

eurofil,

"BP has begun evacuating workers from three platforms in the Gulf of Mexico, shuttering production as tropical storm Cristobal approaches the area before it makes landfall in Louisiana during the weekend. Reuters reports the platforms that are being evacuated are Thunder Horse, Atlantis, and Na Kika. "

Thank you for what's really the only post which interests me today.

'Evacuating' those three? If the sh** hit the fan and those massive producers suffer damage, it could change things a lot. Not that I wish 'em any misfortune, but of course BP (America) being what it is, it couldn't happen to nicer people.