Member Info for adoubleuk

Mk111,

I see the SHARE as being in a binary situation, not the technical aspects. I have no 'control' over either, other than the decision to put money on the table or not, and given the pig ignorance of 'the market' regarding the technicals (as evidenced by many new posters here), that coin-flip could go either way, depenging on whether the next RNS produces a happy oink or a disgruntled one.

I can wait and see. If there's a 'happy oink' and the Sp suddenly jumps 25%, it's still peanuts in monetary terms, so one can be patient and see if it's a trend based on fundamentals or not.

E_AL,

I also believe that the company's contract with Vigo Communications is annual, not pro rata.

But either way, why is tuan6 worried about £1500, for goodness' sake? This is oilfield. A grand and a half is about 1-1/2 hours' opex, or 1 hour's production selling price.

oh, excuse typos pls. writing on phone.0

daltry,

Yes I'm here. And yes, I remember that, but honestly, didn't believe you. 'Cos I coumd see no reson for such a slump.

Luckily I did som heftu topups at 6.2p then sold at 8.7 and those topups saved my skin.

The temptation to buy in again at sub-6p is great, but I'm leaving it 'til the next RNS. To my mind this has now turned binary, and I don't bet on coin flips.

daltry,

"I was reliably told six months ago that Trice wanted out of Hurricane. He had proved his point that there was oil in the F B. He was just tired with HUR after an 15 year period in the same job. There was no vicious inner politics. Some people are like that. He wasn’t driven by SPs , and fortune. He was just a devoted geologist proving a point. Continual spitting by unhappy shareholders, algorithmic hedge fund shorters, the PoO, and C Virus, all didn’t help. "

In a now somewhat distant past, when this BB was actually worth reading, you explained to us your somewhat tenuous 'connections' with people who were in Hurricane from the start, and your knowledge of the background. Though not suggesting you've been privvy to 'inside information' as the story has progressed.

But what you've written sounds completely true to me, and so thanks for that. Already with that sloppy CMD webcast, I saw that Dr T seemed somewhat tired and 'going through the motions' rather than his previous enthusiastic self, so maybe just having 'made his point' regarding Fractured Basement (which is what it's been about from the start), just ducking out seems like a good move. The guy's only human, after all, he's also made some money and is likely to continue doing so on a consultancy basis both for Hurricane and probably other companies (now he's 'free'), so why not rid himself of the hassles?

Best explanation I've heard so far.

fandg2.

"I'm all for conspiracy theory's ADUK and having seen what Shell's bean counters (and other's) can do first hand I would'nt put it past them. But, would she want it on her CV as "the Girl who killed Hurricane Energy"?"

In fact, I'm not a great fan of conspiracy-theorists, and fear I may have gone a bit over the top in suggesting quite possibly erroneous ideas when I started this thread.

However, I do like to dig around things a bit, kicking at stones and seeing what might be underneath.

So instead, back to the top, and let's look at straight facts.

The new interim CEO's CV is almost entirely based on her career with BG Group. I didn't know what that was, so had to search. Of course, it's based on the oldtime British Gas. That then rung bells, because of Centrica, which partly owns Spirit. During such searches, I discovered that BG Group had been largely taken over by Shell.

Also, when Beverly Smith was taken onto the BoD, there never seemed to be a good reason given. Just to bolster the female population? Hmm.

Around the same time, OGA starts playing hardball. And from the DCAA 'permits' website, it's patently obvious that the OCA is in the pockets of the majors. I have no fear saying that. People like BP can get a permit approved in days, whereas for others it can take months. Fact. And if OGA want to try suing me for innuendo, bring it on ! Because it's not libel.

Not long after Ms Smith's appearance, the CFO quits while the share price is plummeting for no apparent reason, and then the CEO 'departs'. SP hits rock-bottom.

No, draw whatever conclusions you wish. But there's something rotten in the State of Denmark, in my opinion.

What with the 'troll / ignoramus' bombardment here lately (some now filtered) I can't help wondering about a few posts here regarding Beverly Smith, the new Interim CEO.

And am utterly amazed that nobody's made a few connections.

Her brilliant CV mentions her 30-year career with the BG Group, oddly, because thirty years ago, it wasn't called by that name, but instead 'British Gas'. Which then 'divested' some of its interests to an outfit called Centrica, which is now a part-owner of Spirit Energy, a partner with Hurricane on the GWA licences, but which itself is now for sale. With (it maybe added) no obvious takers, right now.

Except that the 'BG Group', (what remains of it) is largely owned by Shell.

Put two and two together.... It won't need a 'takeover'. Just starve Hurricane out of existance first, then quietly park Rona Ridge on the shelf for re-emergence when the time comes....

Ran out of space.

* Don't bother replying, I've filtered both you and that 'Manager' in the motor-trade. With his villa in Spain. I live in France, but have visited Spain numerous times. Google 'Malaga Drilling School' A great place to renew one's obligatory IWCF Pressure Control certificate (every two years) and a lot cheaper than Aberdeen ! Oh and I like playing poker in Spain, as well, but in either Catalonia or the Basque regions. Not the places where Arfer Daly's buy 'villas'.

BiBi

Haribo,

"if you know that much to why you lost huge sum of money?"

You really are are rather witless and sad person, aren't you?

I don't know you (and don't believe I'd want to) and you don't know me, and you certainly wouldn't want to ! More to the point, you don't know anything about my finances nor stuff like that. Very few people do, other than myself.

But I'll tell you just a little bit, regarding this share.Because it's the sort of thing which was sometimes guardedly discusssed a few years back, when this BB was generally full of intelligent and civilised discussion between people really trying to get to grips with the 'Hurricane story'.

I bought in a bit over four years ago, early 2016. And very rapidly accumulated a major five-figure sum holding. And started teaching myself about trading, equally rapidly, through advice from others and a lot of reading. And especially towards the back end of that year, when the surpise was sprung on us that the drilling campaign would be extended to Lincoln and Halifax, I traded the bejeezus out of this share, to the extent that when Halifax was spudded, I was essentially on a free ride, for an nice five-figure amount.

I then essentially held, though it was a roller-coaster.

But I did a good top-slice just after the historic high, selling some at 60p. (my initial buying price was 12). Then later on, more recently, top-sliced again at 54p. Then the inexplicable slide started, so I just held on tight. Fast-forward. When this thing hit rock bottom around three weeks ago, I made some very sizeable top-ups, because at the stupid 6p price I felt obliged to. And there was no bad news. And I am very glad to have done so, because in some respects that saved my bacon. BECAUSE THEN cqme the news about the departure of Dr Trice and the rest of that worrying RNS. So I instantly sold the lot (except for just one share, to maintain instant internet ordering I I do so again) at 8.8p.

OK, it was at a five-figure loss, but I wanted out, and only did the longterm sums later. And it turns out that over the four and a bit years, what with top-slicing and also buying a lot real cheap, I've come out roughly even-stevens. Which although it's annoying, 'cos I was hoping for a hefty profit, is OK as well, because it's been an interesting ride.

Might even get back onboard again sometime, but only when the BoD show some sort of evidence of not being full of hot air. Happy now?

Oh, other things some longtimers here already know about me, but which you might like to know. I have a 40-year career in the 'sharp end' of the oil industry (drilling and all that's associated), I drive a 16-year-old rangerover that I wouldn't swap for a new one, playing poker seriously pays my rent (or did until 'lockdown'), I'm a caver / potholer (speleologist), am seriously involved in the sport of offroad truck-racing , smoke Camel filters and drink more than governments advise.

Don't bother replying, I've filtered both

littlened,

I've delayed repliying to you until now, because maybe soon it'll be beddy-byes for our two new resident clowns, Harisbo and Missmanager, or at least their bath-time.

Your comment:

"Hasiba seems to think that ADUK is implying that the current problem with the 'interference' is due to this 'perched water'.
Is this what you are saying ADUK or has Hasiba misunderstood ?"

First let me refer you an exerpt from the May 22nd RNS:

"Hurricane has been carrying out ongoing testing of the two Lancaster EPS wells in order to determine the sustainability of combined production rates up to gross 20,000 bopd. Achieving this target rate at a sustainable level has not been possible as the impact of increasing production rates resulted in instability in the flow regime on the 205/21a-7Z well as a result of interference between the wells. "

Remarkably enough, Hasiba is correct if he's interpreted my earlier comments as this being directly related to the 7z 'perched' water-cut. Because it is. But one has to understand the meaning of the word 'interference' in this context. It refers directly to the almost instant pressure communication between the two wells, noticed almost immediately post-FoiL last year.

Think of it rather in the same terms as 'interference' between two radio stations transmitting on near-identical of overlapping frequencies. The output of one can 'interfere' with the other, maybe just occasionally hiding the other's signal, or causing a mish-mash of both, making the two of them unintelligible. And of course the station with the stronger signal may completely drown out the other, but still sounds 'mushy'. 7z's production contains more water than that of 6, so the density of the fluid mixtures rising up their respective production tubing 'strings' is different. So there's a pressure imbalance between the two, and thus due to the clear pressure-communication from one to another, the flow regime of one well is affecting that of the other. The company states that it's 6's flow which is affecting 7z's, but it may be the other way round. But it makes no difference bacause the end result is the same.

Well 7z is (or was) almost certainly 'slugging', or as I explained and was echoed by another poster a while back, think of fluid coming out of a bottle in a glug-glug way, rather than a steady stream. This is undesirable for many reasons.

7z is the logical candidate for being temporarily shut in, as 6 is producing less water. In fact 6 is altogether the best well drilled so far, and I suspect more care was taken during that campaign.

Until the ESP's have been brought into play, the amount of 'experimental' wriggle-room is somewhat limited. But forget any 'sidetracks' or 'interventions' before that's occured. It won't happen.

"And most importantly adoubleuk and Genghis are not involved in the management ,operations and technical advisory committee of HUR!!"

And nor is 'hasiba', because if he were, he wouldn't be allowed to post here !

hasiba,

"Please put the link of the RNS confirming it is a perched water problem as I cannot find this statement of confirmation by you!?

Try this (RNS Dec 13 2019)

"The Company is confident that the water cut observed is related to perched/stranded water, based on temperature data, lack of rate-dependency, and water production behaviour after shut-in periods."

Plusa other references in quarterly updates, CMD, other RNS's and so on, easily found on the company website. But first you have to find the company website, and I don't think you've even bothered to do that yet.

hasiba,

"Who confirmed it was a perched water .....!? Only you saying so !"

No, not I. But instead just about every RNS and presentation given over the last year has had the company proposing that the water zone is 'perched', and confirmed as such through various tests.

"There is a technical committee now looking into the issue ."

From the RNS:

"A Technical Committee of the Board has been established, formalising an existing arrangement where certain members of the Board have provided oversight of critical technical matters and Reserves and Resources disclosures. "

Note the phrase 'existing arrangement'.

And now you say

"Genghis and adoubleuk and perhaps some others speculate that the problem is a perched water in the fractured reservoirs which is a complete speculations and should never be posted as a definitive statement here to scare the investors..."

(a) See above.

(b) If the 7z water-cut turns out NOT to be a 'perched zone', at that point it becomes very scary indeed. But for now, it isn't.

You really should do some reading on the subject of what Hurricane's doing before committing yourself to print and making yourself look foolishly ill-informed.

hasiba,

None of your links has any relevance whatsoever to Hurricane's situation. Ie a perched water zone in a horizontal producer in fractured basement.

hasiba,

" you sold all your holdings due the fear that the company is going to duster"

No I didn't. I sold because the CEO has been 'replaced', and I see no reason to trust the new BoD until they come up with a forward-looking plan which makes sense. And palliatives like 'inreasing production while reducing costs' is meaningless whitewash to my mind. Sounds great, but HOW?

Interesting you mention Shell a couple of times, so did I.

As for your other (generalised) questions. Hurricane was the first to deliberately target Fractured Basement in the UKCS others are now into the act, such as Siccar Point, and BP have a couple of FB wells on Clair, but which haven't performed as well as Lancaster. Also the Norwegians are doing the same in their sector now. But Rona Ridge remains fairly unique, with its own particular characteristics, with the nearest 'similar' formations being in the Far East.

When I started this thread yesterday evening, I wrote the phrase

"The Edison report actually goes into detail to the extent of mentioning slotted liner and 'swell packers', which (to those familiar with such iron) would be the obvious way to do such a workover."

Please (having thought about it a bit more) forget I wrote that. It's not an 'obvious way' at all. In fact I don't really see how use of such kit might help isolate a perched water zone at all. Nice try, but using the jargon won't do the job. Might conceivably work in a conventional sedimentary formation, but not fractured basement ! If the company so much as whispers about re-entering 7z to perform some zonal isolation, the immediate question to ask will be HOW ?

hasiba,

“Almost 85% of the oil wells is producing with water cut more than 97%. Increasing water cut or even watered out phenomenon was frequently happen during production stage”
Technical committee has been formed already and almost all have remedies by chemical or mechanical methods..."

What you say is true, but it applies to worked-out old N.Sea 'conventional' fields, where continuing production with high water-cuts, even at a loss, is cheaper than shutting down and decomissioning.

This is something else, and I think you should do some further technical research into the 'Hurricane story' before making sweeping statements...

I think everybody, LTH and whoever, including Dr Trice, have found the water-cut on 7z something of a turn-up for the books. A right spanner in the works, to an extent. Especially as it's of an amount which wasn't anticipated, though still well within the FPSO's separation capacity. The thing being, though, that it's not the FPSO's capacity in question. It's what's happening downhole.

Personally, and from all the information made public, I still remain 'in line' with the ex-CEO's interpretation of 'perched water'. But some others don't seem to be, and there's been a concentrated effort to make mountains out of molehills, thereby driving (as a corollory) the SP to historic lows.

7z has just been shut-in. A question of operating a remote valve or two. It doesn't mean the well wasn't producing goodly amounts of oil before that. But for an unknown readon, the entire system (ie including the ESP's) has not been comissioned, so proper and futher 'experimentation' isn't ongoing. Instead you have a commercially-orientated BoD now in place, promising sunshine when we don't yet have a proper understanding of how to drive the clouds away.

Stobie leaving was a bad sign. Possibly (very probably) because he couldn't stand the sight of the plasticine-faced whippersnapper who'd been appointed as his sidekick and is now sitting on his boardroom chair.

During that shambles of a web-based CMD, Robert Trice looked fed up and tired, as well.

The EPS has not been allowed to run its course as a method of finding out how best to work the reservoir. Because that's its purpose. Finding out how to 'make friends with the lion', not showing it off in public while wielding a whip.

I'll wait until the newcomers set out their new planning before even thinking of buying in again. Because until that happens I don't reckon the SP is going to change much.

And if it involves a sidetrack of 7z, I'll put my money into a few cases of beer and a trip to Vegas instead.

El_Al,

PLEASE do not hijack this theread, as I asked when I started it. Tech stuff, not 'market'.

haggis_trap,

I think it's your number (2) principally, whith bits of the rest mixed in, maybe.

IANAA,

"My final thought for this message is that I feel Trice wanted to slowly increase flows to further learn about the characteristics of the wells. "

Yes. Leading to in-fighting within the BoD / outside interests, about which I know nothing. But leading to the recent schism. Which to me at least represents a 'fundamental change', oil in the ground notwithstanding.