Member Info for adoubleuk

Keepwell,

"The ESPs were commissioned before the RNS, I think the 14th day is today so RNS Monday perhaps?"

Or quite possibly not.

In fact, having thought about it, I believe the RNS to have been a bit of a whitewash job. Because I can see no proper technical reasoning behind running both wells on ESP for now. Or at least, not as a method of improving production and decreasing 'interference', to optimize flowrates.

However, I can see the specified two-week period as being something agreed with Schlumberger contractually as part of the 'commissioning', and a check that the kit is functioning OK. Remember, each well is filled with TWO ESP's, and no doubt Hurricane will want to be sure that both of them (in both wells) are running OK. FOR WHEN THEY'RE NEEDED. Which is not now. Well 6 quite self-evidently does not require ESP assistance right now.

It mustn't be forgotten that Dr Trice and Schlumberger had a very close relationship, especially regarding some unique and ground-breaking computer modelling of the reservoir. The Blue Army has also provided a lot of the hardware. But those are two different departments. If the new management is trying to ride roughshod over them, though (not that I'm suggesting they are), it wouldn't be good.

I don't take that '15 days' testing' as being a forecast for an immediately-following RNS at all. Whatever data acquired will have to be chewed over before any resultant conclusions can be reached.

DC,

"adoubleuk ....restraint please or you will have the madwoman out of his cage."

Noted. :-))

What's you'r f**ckin' problem ? Maybe your email wasn't worth replying to. Or maybe you never sent it anyway.

littlened,

I no longer think that FOMO syndrome applies here. Ang really significant rise and trading goes on 'hold' for some minutes' and then if the same continues, the same happens. Heck, the sp has to rise by more than 100% before it's even back at the price it was when I first bought in, more than 4 years ago! So I can wait.

Of course there's FOMO of a takeover. But buying shares in a company in hope of a t/o sounds like a mug"s game to me.

littlened,

Haha! That genuinely made me laugh.
Buy one more share to 'average down' !
Seriously though, as mentioned before, I keep just one share so I get 'instant access' via my online broker if and when I buy again. But (also as mentioned before) I'm waiting on solid news before I'll consider that. Some jokers here like chanting 'breakout' , 'set to skyrocket', and similar mantras daily, yet the sp is set around 6p for weeks now. I don't care if I wake up late and miss a 10% rise, 'cos 10% of not very much equals not very much in cash terms. I'll buy into a rise when there's some reason to believe the rise will continue and is based on some real reasons, not just some spurious 'chart'.

rshah,

"How long can they run the wells on ESP? Is there a time limit?"

As such, no there is no 'time limit'. Many many wells N.Sea and elsewhere are run exclusively on ESP, especially in marginal semi-depleted old fields where bottomhole pressure is no longer enough to sustain 'natural flow' and water-cut may be 85% or more. Neither of which is the case on Lancaster.

The company has set themselves a self-imposed 'limit' of 15 days running both wells on ESP (why ?) before coming to some sort of foreward-looking'decision' which hopefully they will make public via an RNS in short order. Reading between the lines, this means that they'll be 'playing with things' right now, running the ESP's at different speeds, altering choke sizes, and so on, trying to find some sort of 'sweet spot' on which they can base a nice positive RNS, to hopefully generate shareholder interest.

Personally I feel such a timeframe is pushing things a bit, and something of a rush job, but that just my opinion, for what it's worth, of maybe isn't. And although Dr Trice has been retained in an advisory capacity, there's no guarantee that his advice will necessarily be heeded if it goes against the new BoD's obvious desire to increase production while cutting costs.

ESP's can run 'til the cows come home, and there's no actual reason why on or two of them may not remain in use beyond the stated 15 day 'trial'. But if there's one (or two) things those bits of kit really don't like, that's being run outside of their optimum performance envelope (which is dependent on numerous things), and being turned on and off.

Judging by today's once again staggeringly good 'this is going to pop' share performance (where do the chartists go at the end of the day?), I'm personally just waiting for some technical news before even considering buying back in.

JiffyBag,

"Excitement? Pray tell us all."

Quite agree. The BB seems to have been full of youngsters just jerking-off having discovered Hurricane, getting all 'excited' with it, drawing up all sorts of 'charts' which have been proved wrong, and so on...

mjga786,

'Why are you so offensive"

' Cos sometimes I like to be...

Ammu123, MaverickD, Sufessex,

Interesting thread-header. 'Breakout'.

Is it referring by any chance to a bunch of lunatics having escaped from the asylum and since infesting this BB with their madness?

'Boom' ! '60p next week !' etc..

Go tell it to the marines. It won't happen.

Chew on your losses over the weekend.

I'm surprised that with all the BoD changes recently, including the sad demise of Neil Platt who was a down-to earth and solid, non-controversal oilman, nobody on this usually voluable BB has made any remark on the replacement of one of the 'rotating' non-executive directors representing Kerogen, with another.

Why is this?, I can't help but wonder.

OK, Jeremy Clarkson got himself into lots of trouble by making 'maybe unintentional' puns. But I can't help wondering if Hurricane's new BoD might not have a few chinks in its armour.

Capt Swag,

"i suspect they wanted to see if the introduction of ESPs meant the two wells could run without the previous interference. it worked and they did. "

No, I disagree with you. This is tech stuff. Getting the ESP's 'into play' is not some magic wand. The 'interference' between the two wells because they're both producing mainly from their heel sections is just part of the story. And that 'interference' won't suddenly go away. However, with the ESP's running, the 'interference factor' may be possible to 'damp out' (no horrible pun intended !), through running the pumps at different speeds, varying choke-sizes, and so on. But to get meaningful results, any changes won't be made in a matter of days. You've got a very large reservoir of fluids down there. So to get any sort of meaninful result you can count on, you have to change one 'setting' (be it ESP 'draw', choke size, or whatever), and then wait to see how the reservoir reacts. Or more importantly, what given reaction it stabilizes at.

This will take time. In fact I personally feel that a 'conclusive' technical review being published by mid-September will be pushing things, time-wise.

But in the meanwhile, while the 'new gang' continue to play with the wells, I anticipate tankers coming and going, continuing to offload oil at a rate which puts many other AIM-listed oil companies to shame, and at a rate which makes them look idiotic.

Which I find very strange. Peoples' minds seem to be fixated on water-cut, instead of actual barrels of oil being produced per day.

Slift,

"What do you think?"

I think we were writing at the same time ! See my (slightly later) post.

Maverick,

"The update was really good today, better than anyone here expected and with production back to 15,000 and the ESPs working we should see some daylight."

I don't think the RNS was 'really good', but instead 'wait and see' cautious.

On the tech side, it's good that the ESP's are online. That's a positive. And earlier today I expressed myself 'uncertain' as to why they are now being run on BOTH wells (as the RNS leads us to believe). It's a thing that's been going through my mind while sitting on cafe terraces in the sunshine, admiring the young girls passing by in their colourful summer clothes. I'm perverse like that. Not theadmiring the young ladies bit (who wouldn't, they dress like that to be admired !), but thinking about oilwells when such other distractions are around.

And I reckon I've now figured out in my mind why BOTH wells are on ESP. Or at least, the thinking behind it.

But as a qualifier, don't expect some sudden news about increased production and possibly reduced water-cut in the immediate. There's more 'experimentation' to be done to 'optimize' things. But much more possibilities.

It's pure game-theory. Discovered by Von Neumann, eminent physicist and mathematician, also involved in the development of the atom bomb.

Before, flowrates of the two wells have been determined by choke-size. Not (I suspect) infinitely variable, but in increments. Dunno how many. But ignoring the number of increments, just two chokes to play with. Now, with two chokes and two ESP's, even if they were just 'on / off', with no increments, you've got twelve possible combinations. But in reality, the chokes have incremental possibilities, and the ESP's are 'variable - speed'.

So lots more 'playing around' to be done before a sweet spot is found.

Haggis_trap,

The EPS just needs to generate enough data to prove Lancaster / fractured basement works then someone with deeper pockets can drill more holes.

There's no longer any question about whether Lancaster / FB 'works'. It does. Qed. 'Optimizing' output from the current two producers, establishing a corporate strategy balancing revenue against further drilling costs, bond repayment, etcetera, may take a bit more time than pre-CV19 economic meltdown, however. Imho.

"

SageOfOmagh.

" These things are always easy to point out with the benefit of hindsight but it was a schoolboy error for a supposedly eminent geologist."

Agree with the first bit, but entirely don't with the second.

Hold on. It's the Pelham RNS that's been 'flagged'. But where is this morning's operational update? That was an RNS, as well.

I wonder if it's a coincidence that the SP has only really started moving (downwards, unfortunately) today at about the same time that Wall St opened, and also that that was also the time that LSE woke up to the fact that an RNS had been released?

Mk111,

"AD2K I'm curious to know if you've dipped a toe on again this morning especially after your enigmatic statement yesterday.
Seems to me that there's not enough technical flesh on the bone detail wise as yet but as I say I'm curious. "

To satisfy your curiousity, no I haven't bought back in, for the very reason you mention and which is a view I share. Not enough detail.

But I don't think anything's being 'hidden' in the RNS. Instead it strikes me as being a 'watch this space' update, but not much more. It mentions that the results of the 'technical review' and also forward-looking plans will be published at around the same time as the interim financials in September, so I feel it's going to remain a waiting game for another couple of months. And as a corollorary, I suspect the day-traders and algos will just continue playing silly b**gers with the shares, clawing at their fractions of a penny profits, until then.

It's positive news that the ESP's are now brought into play, though I'm not sure I understand why that on 6 is being run at the same time as the 7z pump. No doubt there are good reasons. But it does mean that the 'experimentation' is continuing, hence use of the word 'optimization'.

PlantedBHA,

First of all, love your pseudonym ! At last, someone else somewhat 'in the know' posting here !

"Chaffe got confirmed in his position not long after the debacle re production level.
First rule of accounting is to be conservative and realistic "

Yes. But the role of CFO is not 'accounting'. That stuff is passed down the line to lower (usually hired) levels. The CFO makes financial DECISIONS. Up to the accountants to sort out the mess or otherwise when the year-end financials are approaching and report on them.

daltry,

Msg received. Referring back to earlier in this vein, did you get PM details to 'Haggis_Trap' ? I learned some interseting things from him but which I won't repeat here.