Member Info for adoubleuk

Planted,

"The lack of comms smacks of collusion at a very high level"

For once I agree with you. Though not sure what you mean by 'high level'. I p**s on the manipulators of this share from a very high place. And even if they 'win' this round, the game ain't over.

Stu.

"Prolific wells like these have a big drop between shut in / start up pressure and flowing pressure."

YES.

ESPECIALLY in fractured formations.

I remember Nafoora East exploration well in Libya, and It blew us out of our seats, sort of. Started DST, and it became more and more frightening! For a minor surface-equipment reason, running 6000 bpd at half choke, had to shut in quickly. And SWP rose back ABOVE initial SSW within 20 seconds! None of us (including Wintershall's Senior Geophysicst, on site and part of the 'team') had ever seen anything like that in their lives.

Fractured reservoirs can be fun.

SG2'

"Hi Adouble; got any general thoughts on Hur' recent further decline (into RT (sic) silence)? Seems to me a lot of people (on this bb) are binning Dr Trice/Slumburgers et-al tech work on the odt/owc data of 2017 etc..........?"

Flattered that you ask my opinion, but my thoughts are just very general (as distinct from specific).

Since the new guys came to town having run Dr T out of it, we seem to have had nothing but implied bad news. Re-assessment of OWC, possible re-appraisal of reserves, etcetera. But the thing is, they have given absolutlely no solid reason for such doubts. And by solid, I mean SOLID. In other words taking stuff said and published in the past, and evidence (or theories) which might refute all that's been done so far.

For this reason, I am deeply suspicious of the current BoD's motives, and the manner in which they appear to ignore or seem oblivious to the current catastrophic SP valuation. To the detriment of all shareholders.

Also the very recent elimination of years'-worth of technical documentation from the company website increases my suspicions by orders of magnitude.

This upcoming 'Technical Review' had better be solid.

ngms27,

"They cannot have a third producer I believe due to gas flaring constraints."

Further total and ignorant horse-puckey.

A third well will provide much-needed 'redundancy'. You don't need to have all three wells producing at full whack at the same time. This is what the word 'redundancy' means. Having a backup.

ngms,

"I'd think sidetracks, would be cheaper, perhaps both for the same cost."

Oh yeah ? Please produce some figures to back up such a claim. Inclusive of inevitable loss of revenue from production, paying for the FPSO while idle, etcetera.

Plus risk-assessment of any such workovers. regarding the extent your expert mind considers that a sidetrack (even if only of well 7z) might enhance its production once eventually back online.

You might like to include just exactly at what depth such a sidetrack might be initiated, with a simple azimuth / inclination proposal.

MaryMullins,

"Laserdisc - a well respected poster on ADVFN posts that Robert Trices technical papers ( technical library) have been removed from the Hurricane web page. Does anyone know if there is a way to access deleted documentation such as this?"

Yes, Laserdisc is highly respected cross-platform, not just on ADVFN. But now rarely posts here.

And his information is correct: I've just been to the company website to check.

Deleting those papers, presentations, etc. from the site is tantamount to criminal behaviour in my view. Unless you agree with book-burning, that is.

I'm sure that you'll be able to find most of the stuff via google-searching, but of course that'll be long and fastidious, jumping from one link to another.

This is what libraries are for: getting specific material gathered together in one place.

I'm going to email IR about this tomorrow. I feel sure that TATA Jaguar Landrover probably have a complete archive of Landrover documentation going back to the 1940's, even if the current product bears no resemblance to the original Landrover prototype !

I now don't trust the 'new BoD' an inch.

JoeSoap,

"The LH graph is taken from the CMD presentation, pg21."

Thank you for pointing this out.

So today I went to look at the CMD 'slides', something I hadn't done specifically before, because when the CMD occured, I concentrated on the webcast and what was being said.

And lo and behold ! That graph is based on data acquired a long time before the CMD took place !

So why is it now being trotted out again as though it were something new ?

When this much-awaited 'technical review' is published, the 'new' guys and gals had better produce some up-to-date graphs and analysis, and if they maintain that Dr Trice's modelling and guidence was wrong, have some damned good explanations as to why, referring back to earlier thinking for comparative purposes.

I now contribute rarely here (despite having bought back in: a small amount), because there's some right rubbish being written by some obvious jokers, and also by 'armchair oilmen' who obviously nowt about the subject, but have picked up some lingo from the BBs and thus like to pretend they do know something.

But the latest from 'ngms' takes the biscuit for being a load of codswallop.

"So that's looking like:
Two sidetracks or two new wells"

Why? The two current wells are producing (at last news) 17,000 bopd. Good, for just two wells tied into a shoestring-budget EPS.

"One new injector"

Huh? For starters, there's not an 'old' injector. And what are you going to inject ? And WHERE ? In Fractured Basement ? That's an old mistake made back in the 80's in places like China and Vietnam, when FB was new news.

(Of course you could build a pipeline from Downing Street to WoS and inject hot air, but I doubt it'd help anything. Plus the thing would meet HSE problems for the toxicity of what was being pumped along the line.)

"What if the Aquifers regional? i.e. a very very large body of water?"

It IS a 'very very large body of water', extending over hundreds of square kilometers. Thankfully. It'd be pretty hard for the reservoir to have a good sustainable pressure-drive if that wasn't the case.

I've just taken a hard look at those graphs. Especially the left-hand one. And I consider it to be rubbish. Because the 'lines' don't match the data-points. Or rather, the 'lines' are no more meaningful than Zac Mir's ever-changing 'SP trend lines' which he can change with a slide of the mouse.

And also, I distincly don't like the constanty changing use of the terms 'bottomhole pressure' and 'bottomhole flowing pressure'. The two are completely different animals, so have to be referred to as such, very specifically.

Plus I'd really like to know how (and from where, and with what instrumentation) BHFP is being measured. Because I'd expect it to change, with different production rates. Equally, if ideed we have 'perched water' 'static' BHP may be expected to reduce somewhat, as well.

I don't know why, but I still get the odd impression that with their RNS's and the release of such wishy-washy data, the BoD is in the process of trying to trash their own company. Figuring out a motive for doing that would be pure speculation, of course.

And on a slightly different topic, I agree with others that now we've had an 'interim CEO' for a few months, it's time she actually commented on something, using her own byline, or that the BoD appointed someone permanent who will be prepared to do so. A Chief EXECUTIVE Officer has to be seen to EXECUTE things, inform decisions, and explain such decisions to shareholders. So far shareholders have seen absolutly nothing done by this 'interim' person.

Thenorseman,

"Ms Smith is currently the President of the Petroleum Exploration Society of Great Britain. "

So what ? She probably thinks a 'chain tong' is a sort of Chinese meal, despite her elevatated status.

Problem is, Dr T might not know what a chain tong is, either. Nor how to use one. But come to think of it, he probably does. Because how otherwise does one break down a core-barrel?

accrossthesea,

"Everything has changed because the EPS was expected to find dry oil, there has been an ever increasing water cut that was not in the plan. This throws the whole FB west of Shetland into doubt."

Utter baloney and horse-pucky, me ol' jumping bean ! The EPS was installed to inaugurate 'early production' (and thus initiate cashflow) and through data-acquisition from the two wells establish greater understanding of the reservoir and its potential for further development. And has so far achieved both goals with huge success, and seemingly continues to do so.

Two wells producing 17,000 bopd does NOT 'throw FB WoS into doubt'. Quite the opposite.

Planted,

"As you say, the data presented by hurricane re Lancaster has been scrutinised by a plethora of qualified personnel.
The OGA among them."

I suggest you take a quick look at this.

https://www.ogauthority.co.uk/about-us/leadership-governance/board-of-directors/

I'd submit that nobody on the OGA's BoD is in any way qualified to analyse any data provided to them by Hurricane, other than in 'business terms'. Of course, they'll outsource to subcontractors for technical advice.

The OGA is a paper tiger created by government, because government itself knows it has no teeth, so sets up a puppet show for the sake of appearances.

Genghis,

"MCB
"Both wells are producing from the heel and not from along the full 2km horizontal or the toe."

We don't know that for sure. That was Dr T's interpretation, which must now be considered less than certain."

OK. First it's doubts about OWC vs 'perched water', now it's doubts creeping in regarding where along the wellbore most of the production is coming from.

And of course now that Dr T has stepped aside from his position as CEO, everything is 'his fault'. As though he were some mad scientist still working from a garden shed, in glorious isolation.

I utterly dispair of this BB with its plethora of armchair oilmen, which is why I now rarely contribute. I haven't figured out how Dr T interpreted where, exactly, along the wellbores, most prolific production is occuring. But of one thing I'm sure. It wasn't some idea drawn up on the back of a fag-packet, and not just by himself, neither. It's the result of countless hours of data-acquisition. And yet more countless thousands of man-hours by a whole load of expert people analysing and number-crunching such date, and coming to various conclusions. I personally don't know how such conclusions have been reached, firstly because I'm not a reservoir engineer, secondly because I don't have access to the numbers, and a whole slew of other reasons as well.

However, one or two numbers I do trust, because the data (such as tanker-loads of oil sold into market) is public domain, if you know where to look.

When Dr T went searching for oil in Fractured Basement WoS, it was a very long shot, and took a lot of faith to believe in. And through sependity the man found backers for his enterprise. Which so far has been a resounding success. His theory has been proved correct. Oil can be produced in commercial quantity from FB WoS. And there's lots more down there.

Unfortunately, the Share Price of his company has gone down the pan, which makes utterly no sense, given that it's revenue-positive, 'debt (in the form of bonds) notwithstanding.

The 'new BoD' has yet to produce any reasoning (particularly geophysical) behind all the doubts and fears they have spread via RNS, and personally I find this suspicious. Meanwhile garnering their salaries from the 17,000 bopd the field is producing from just two wells. Something very wrong with that equation.

Even if Dr T has been 'retained in an advisory capacity'. I suspect he'll charge ten grand before he picks up the phone, these days. I would.

Stu255,

The EPS is already planned to 'run' for a minimum 6 years, with possible extension to 10.

Mary M,

"From a non oilie holder so please be kind! As a LTH I hope that there is still hope for HUR as a fractured basement explorer/producer but is there any research that has been done on the licence areas as conventional plays?"

Yeah, despite being a roughy-toughy old oilman, being a gentleman is part of that description (the good ones, at least), so of course I'll be kind ! :-))

The entire area was initially explored by Shell, BP, and Arco. On Lancaster, Lincoln and Halifax., back in the 1970's. Which was quite an undertaking, given the WoS conditions and the kit available at the times. But of course, back then, they were looking for 'conventional', because FB hadn't even raised its head a s a commercial play back then, and the drilling techniques to exploit it didn't exist.

Yes, on the licences, 'conventional' exists. Notably the 'Victory Sandstone' overlying Lancaster. It was only by looking at 'bottomhole cores' from these drilled, but plugged-and-abandoned wells that Dr Trice realised that the real prize lay below that, in the 'basement'.

'Conventional' is there, but strictly non-commercial.

Slift,

"Strange, wouldn't it optimise the process if the the storage facility of the FPSO can be used for storage of both upstream untreated crude and downstream treated crude? The upstream storage being an intermediate storage before it is pumped through the process facility"

Noooooooooo

Slift,

"Can i assume that the AM has a storage facility upstream of fluid processing? I.e. a tank to store the crude prior to being processed by the AM processing facility?"

No, not the case.

" Or is it safe to assume that both wells have been shut in?"

Yes.

DC,

"If you are alluding to the interim CEO just bear in mind that she was a BG employee which Company was taken over by Shell and she left shortly thereafter. I should not need to remind you that RT was an employee of Enterprise which was taken over by Shell and he fairly soon parted company."

Precisely.

I too have worked on a consultancy basis for Shell, for atwo or three years. But we parted company. However in that instance, it was simply because the ongoing drilling campaign was ending, the rig was being retired, and for future work it would be cheaper to hire three 'local' trainees (who I'd trained-up) than to keep one expat adoubleuk on the books. But I know how such things work.

AS to RT and Enterprise? Anyone with Enterprise on their CV is OK in my books. Even if some of them turned maverick. Shell took Enterprise over because that little outfit represented a huge threat to them, technically speaking.

Sound familiar?

MCB55.

"So on that basis, surely best to plug off the first fracture (not sure how, but Dr T seems to know!?) and produce from further along the 2 kms of the horizontal? I know Aduk not keen on this"

Any squeak of an idea about this, and I'll sell out again, without even leaving one share in my account for fast re-buying purposes ! Sure, a tie-in (however done) of a new well on Lancaster would be expensive regarding subsea flowlines, etc. But there's all that kit already bought for Lincoln that could be used. For eventual tie-in to the existant Lancaster manifold. And the idea of a postulated L8 5km away is imho absurd, as well. Maybe just 1km, so a rig could come in and lay anchors without having to have to shut down existent production for safety reasons...

Big Boys Toys stuff, but fairly simple.

Except that some people (especially ex-Shell) love to make things complicated.

Cap't Swag,

"awk - i disagree. the news that hur had stopped production had been leaked at least the day before - therefore i think they had to RNS. I certainly was expecting that in an RNS that morning."

Oh well. I guess it's nice to be 'in the know', I suppose. I'm not so close to things as to have inside such knowledge.

But to my way of thinking, a production shutdown for a few days because of some technical hitch is not an RNS-worthy event, given that 'downtime' to date has been far less than already costed-in, and it's seemingly short term. In other words, it's not a 'price-sensitive' event as regards the overall game-plan.

But that part of the RNS came second, with the first bit sending more doom-and-gloom, without any reasons nor explanations why they think 16 years of exploration and research and analysis is suddenly wrong. And without explaining how 17,000 bopd oil-production with a guaranteed buyer is such a bad deal.

Hurricane Energy now is obviously no longer the Hurricane Energy it once was. And the people now at the helm seem determined (for reasons unknown) to be steering the ship towards the rocks.

Feels like old pirate-days to me. Head the bounty towards the rocks, and then demand a ransom to give a tow, to save them from disaster. But at a crippling price.