Member Info for adoubleuk

Jiffybag,

"AK,

Re: 'Well 6 was obviously a 'sweet spot' thing. 7z, which was a sidetrack from 'piliot hole' 7, did NOT go horizontal, like 6. And somewhere, intersected water.'

Q. Would the intersected water section of 7z been apparent at time of drilling 7? "

No. Or not necessarily. Or (Imho) very doubtful. Because the 'pilot well' 7 didn't go anywhere near 7z does.

There's an interesting point in all this, though. Well 7 was a resounding success on DST. So are the current wells. Even if the company's decided the shut in 7z for a while. But it wsa determined that that the '7' DST was mainly producing from high in the wellbore. And now, for a while, we've been told that 6 & 7z appear to be only producing from near the the 'heel sections' of the horizontals. But it's drilling those 'horizontals' which eat up the money, and also add to the risk.

I wonder....

Maybe time for a change in strategy. How about 'Lancaster 8' being a cheap and dirty near-vertical thing? At a third the price?

C'mon, hurricane, time to get pragmatic.

feelinlucky,

Now there's a weird coincidence!

Here below is a mail I posted to a site of 'friends', just this morning, under the header 'Bloomin' Earthquakes! ' But I live in western France, not California.

"There's just been another one, about an hour ago. Enough to feel, just for a second or two. I'll have to go to the seismology website later to find out how strong it was, and the epicentre. And of course, as usual, most of the pictures on my walls are out of plumb by a couple of millimetres. So I've started to straighten them up. I'll have company on Sunday (in fact, the most people I've had in my flat since I moved here), and I can't have 'unstraight' pictures...

The thing is, when I first moved to Niort and into this building, I read my rental contract quite closely. Because it's full of fascinating stuff, including proximity to flood-prone areas (with pretty maps) and so on. Fortunately, I'm away from possible floods (though not by much), even if on rare occasions when the heavens break loose, the steeply-sloping street and the square can turn into something resembling a river. But There's nothing in the contract about earthquakes, though they're quite frequent."

DC

"If the ESP's were operational would their use compromise the ability to gather data?"

No. Weird question. Having the ESP's operational would provide much MORE data. More toys to play with. It's a 'hiccup' which hasn't been properly explained, and which upsets me. CV19 excuses notwithstanding. The VSD control-units should have been 'go' in February.

Longwait,

"I suppose terribility is relative, Double (with apologies to the Grammar Police)."

I hope the Grammar Police will just let you off with a verbal warning not to use the word 'terribility' again.

However, as to the rest of your post, text copied with a link to its source.

I no longer trust (nor look at, except on rare occasions) ANY of these things. Because thay're all written by charlatans who 'think they know better than us' . F*** them and the horses they rode in on.

I know of what I speak, having been heavily involved in journalism myself (as well as the oilfield). And I got paid for stuff which was sometimes utter rubbish. But it was never 'advice' stuff, trying to bend peoples' minds to a certain way of thinking.

That person on 'proactive' is writing nonsensical gobblygook, paraphrasing the RNS, but making himself a nice 100 pounds or so fo filling up column-space. Same as that chap on 'chairprofits'. Gets paid to spout nonsense, 'cos the site makes lots of money out of advertising revenues from those stupid enough to click their links.

If you want to know about what Hurricane's about (or any company) visit their website. Maybe look at some 'chat'. But avoid 'stock advisors' like the plague.

Haggis_trap,

"Are the ESPs likely to help here ?"

OK, one thing at a time. I wish to underline that I'm working from no more data than anyone else here.

My 'feeling' is that with the ESP's operational, there would be a far greater 'play around factor' available. That might sound trite, but insert 'experimental'. 'testing' or whatever more scientific word you want.

" Or is the basic problem that 7z well intersects problematic zone of water ? "

There is no 'basic problem'. Even with 7z temporarily shut in, the field is producing 10,000 bopd, with a slow ramp-up forseen. Compare (if comparisons are required) with PMO's nearby Solan monster.

"The one hope is that 6-well continues to perform. Before 7-z was enabled it seemed to be performing very well."

Don't like that 'one hope' phrase. But personally, from a technical point of view, if all the data issued by the company is true (and I have no reason to believe it isn't), I see 6 happily producing 10,000 bopd or more until everything else comes back onstream.

7z has obviously proved to be problematic. In fact, I don't like it. And it's something which does in fact make me scratch my head a little bit. Well 6 was obviously a 'sweet spot' thing. 7z, which was a sidetrack from 'piliot hole' 7, did NOT go horizontal, like 6. And somewhere, intersected water.

No names, no packdrill. But Dr Trice is a Geologist, not a Driller.

Let's face it, for anyone who's been here for any length of time, we know there have been multiple screw-ups. How about the 'rope-saga' early last year? Had us tearing our hair out.

But water under the bridge.

The price of oil, the POTUS taking malaria tablets to make sure he doesn't get CV19, young people sitting closer than one metre on the beach? Heck, why should I care?

Hurricane Energy shares going for sixpence ? Yes, of course I topped-up ! Utterly stupid not to. Keeping one's money in the bank doesn't earn anyone money, anyway.

Longwait,

"Why did Double and some others here buy more today, in spite of the terrible RNS?"

1 Because on later reflection, I didn't consider the RNS 'terrible' at all. OK, annual predicted oil production maynot be the previously-predicted figue, but it ain'nothing, neither.

2 But secondly, because I also use my poker-playing instincts ! What do you do when you seem to feel 'short-stacked' ? Some people cut their losses and leave the table. Nothing wrong with that, done it myself many times. But there are others who may start playing wildly with marginal stuff. Usually doesn't work. But there are others, still feeling it's a good game, who'll 'rebuy'. So they're still there, with the possibility of a 'big win'. Or just getting 'into the pay' will be OK.

Topping up almost instantaneously at around 6p was a no-brainer thing not to miss. OK, 7z's been shut in for a while. Big deal. And the Aoka Mizu's going nowhere.

SotB,

"ADUK :They could sidetrack the 7z well.......is that the 10% you on rep in the game"

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

WHERE FROM, big boy? Where's 'kickoff point' ?

Or are you talking about abandoning the whole thing back to 13-3/*" and starting all over?

That wouldn't make sense. And try a 'whipstock sidetrack' from somewhere up in the 9-5/8" before the '60 degrees' to get a newer, 'more distant' heel section?

Good luck if you try. Hope your Directional Drillers have good 'failure insurance' which doesn't exist, of course),

Nevertheless, SotB, nice to see you're still on the case !

johnpwh,

"HI. Would you mind expanding on your last para? Are the lack of ESPs the cause of this problem and/or are the solution once commissioning is complete?"

I (adoubleuk) suspect your question is aimed for me.

My post (with many typos) was written on my phone, sitting by the river, watching the duck having a fight and the many fish, drinking a can of beer, and admiring the sight of many young ladies in their summer frocks crossing the bridge twenty yards away, with their young men in tow. All in the sunshine. But with my thought-patterns nevertheless soumwhat revolving around a nasty hostile rocky place sone 6000 feet below the seabed, some 80 miles offshore, West of Shetland...

No. The lack of the ESP's not yet having been commissioned is definitely and in NO WAY a 'cause' of anything currently happening.

However, (as usual the rider 'my opinion only'), had they been commissioned by February, which by personal (maybe mistaken) understanding they should have been, use of one (particularly on 7z) MIGHT have prevented the current situation, and the decision to shut that well in.

Remember, I have no more data than the rest of you, going by intuition and gut-feeling only, and what little I know.

BUT. (Yes, there's a 'but').

I have a horrible feeling that Dr T is losing overall 'control' of his own company. Just look at that hotch-potch CMD thing. A 'Production Operations Director' who looks and sounds like Count Dracula, and a stand-in temporary CFO made out of plasticine. Not good. Where was Platt ? And Stobie had flown the coop, and despite some dubious decisions once or twice, I think of him as a Good Man, who acted as a firm 'backstop' to the CEO>

And hey! these are words being written by someone frequently accused of being a 'ramper' ! In fact, there's something I completely DON'T understand, and that being why the VSD control-systems for the ESP's were not fully commissioned by February. Though again, I have suspicions. Those being, that focus was being turned towards 'production'., rather than getting the whole system properly operative.

And that approach (probably against the CEO's will) has turned around and bitten the company (and we shareholders) in the arse.

Haggis_trap,

"Terrible RNS. All bets now on the 6z-well."

I disagree on both points. But yes, not a GOOD rns. And when the CEO of a company, be it O & G of frozen pizza, uses the word 'disappointing', people tend to run for the hills.

However, you've quoted Malcy in your post, and I quit watching that fat man's site a long time ago.

And he's just poured petrol on the fire by paraphrasing the RNS, and getting it utterly wrong.

An excerpt:

"I would think that some sort of re-intervention in the 7z well is necessary as it appears that it is flowing from a part of the reservoir that is not ideal, especially as the two wells are effectively on top of each other and acting as a single well. That re-intervention could be used to shut off the perched water or to help access a more permeable part of the reservoir further down the well bore. The company needs to assess the timing of this activity...."

Thank you, big man. I'm sure that the reservoir engineers in Hurricane are eager to pay for your advice about what 'you think'. Providing you can provide something on your CV regarding oilfield experience other than being given freebie rides around the world when you might be considered a 'marketing tool'.

Any word of re-entering 7z instead of drilling a new 'Lancaster 8', and I'll be 90% out of here. Despite my trust in Dr Trice. Such a decision would (to my mind, opinion only) be a foolish one, and indicative that he's losing control of the company he founded.

Workover of 7z is risk-fraught (for both wells) and liable to cost more than drilling a new one will be.

Uracca,

Writing on my phone, so can't copy / paste the pertinent part of your message.

Yes, the ESP's are downhole as an interal part of the completion strings. But they can't be 'switced on'. Because for some reason the surface control systems on the FPSO hadn't been fully commissioned by February, as expected, and then due to this CV19 madness, it's not considered 'critical work', so the technicans can't go out to finish the work.

It's only my opinion, but I do think that if the ESP's had been operable, we might not have had to read news like today's.

Just in case anyone's forgotten, 'Navion Oceana' is currently on her way to Rotterdam with the latest offload from the Lancaster field. And she's an oil-tanker, not a water-transporter.

SG2,

"to be fair, Hur have been hinting at an issue that needed 'further understanding' re the instability/pressure cross-talk 'issue'; the discussion re re-entering 7z and moving the productive zone away from its heel was clue to that."

That was something in the CMD which alarmed me a bit.

" I'll guess this is what they'll do, as it involves less capex. "

Absolutely not sure about that. Capex, yes, maybe. But opex? Plus lost revenue during inevitable shutdown time? I (personally, opinion only) don't like the idea of a 7z re-entry at all. Because thinking through the thing, the 'risk factor' for BOTH the wells (and thus the EPS and company finance) is significant.

I have huge respect for Dr Trice, and still believe him to be the best person to be the company's CEO for now. But I never forget the fact that he's a geologist, and NOT a 'drilling person'. To the extent that if the comany announces it's going to re-enter 7z for 'remedial work' instead of just drilling a new 'well 8', I might personally sell up and walk away, because I believe it would be the wrong decision.

"The small but increasing water-cut of 6 has been intriguing me, also, and i wonder if there's a relationship here. imo you analogy of instability caused by the perched water drawdown is likely to be spot-on"

Thank you,

" - a roof-perch or combo basin-roof system would certainly have a dramatic effect in this way."

Yes. If it quacks like a duck...

"For sure Hur now has it's work schedule defined"

If so, I hope they'll outline it soon. CV19 uncertainties notwithstanding.

"either 7z or (8) need sorting while poo is in the sh*t, so the timing may even be slightly fortuitous "

Yes.

"except for the sp, obs."

My hasty top-up this morning is already in profit, even if my overall holding isn't.

Ahh; just read your 12:04 follow-up: - agree entirely, esp comment re relativel small rates of water from 7z's perch possibly reaching 6.

Glad you (seemingly) agree. Let others run around like chickens with their heads cut off. Hurricane is despite being O & G a 'tech stock' of the highest order. If you don't understand the tech, don't enter the lab.

Enjoy life while we can.

Funny ol'thing this AIM O & G stockmarket stuff, isn't it ?

As I mentioned earlier, once I'd picked myself up off the floor after reading the RNS, I made an instant snap decision to top-up. And 'instant snap decisions' like that are not my usual modus operandum at all.

It meant getting online with my bank, (which also acts as my broker), tranferring some cash, putting in my order, and so on. So I had all the figures in front of me.

And now, I'm beginning to giggle a bit.

OK. My HUR is definitely right now 'in the red'. But I've been 'in here' for a bit over four years now. And within the first year, teaching myself about 'trading' (with some help from others, to whom thanks !) recouped my initial investment, despite some people said it couldn't be done.

Since then, made some mistakes, but also (through top-slicing) pulled off some little 'coups', and made some money.

Looking at the red numbers on my bank website earlier, a sudden realisation dawned. My HUR holding is 'in the red' near eneough exactly to the amount I'd made in profit before ! So sort of 'even-stevens' really. Except for two things. Firstly, my earlier profits were cash which has run through my fingers like water (as it does ! ) with fast living, sex (I wish) an' drugs an' rock an' roll. And secondly, my 'holding' is now back at the same number of shares as it was when I started !

All of which gives me a nice feeling...

Sh*t. A chip and a chair... Can still come out winning. Or at least a few years older, even if not wiser.

(Continued)

Just a few days ago in another post, I wrote about my suspicion that although the company has been saying that 'production' from the two wells is in the main from just 40 metres or so of their horizontal, the 'heel section', my belief is that 7z's 'water zone' lies beyond that. I still believe that to be the case. It's in fact the only logical reason for water having been seen (and incoming) from 7z, but not 6.

Pressure-transmission between the two wells has been described as 'instantaneous'. OK, fine. However transmission of pressure doesn't mean that fluids are actually flowing between the two wells over those 350 metres. In the same way that when someone claps their hands a hundred yards away, although you hear the sound, it doesn't mean the air molecules between their palms have actually travelled to you. Think of it like a wave in a pond.

Anyway. Back to the RNS. What does shutting-in 7z mean, especially looking forward?

Now, I start scratching my head a bit, because as Johnpwh said, Dr T is the 'expert', certainly not Adoubleuk. Plus Adoubleuk has no access to hard data, just the same stuff as the rest of you, through company publications, RNS, and so on.

Shutting-in 7z will allow things to 'stabilize' a bit. I've a nasty suspicion that the decision was taken because a slight increase in water-cut was beginning to be seen from 6, as well. In other words, actual 'fluid transfer' across the 350 metres between the two wells. However, will such a 'transfer' (if it's happening) continue with 7z shut in? My suspicion is no, or at least not at the same rate, for simple friction-loss reasons.

Or at least, I certainly hope not, otherwise we may be in real trouble.

So instead, they're going to 'ramp up' 6. Which will be interesting, and fun !

But there's the bogeyman. This dam CV19 thing which has caused the commissioning of the ESP's to be delayed due to 'minimum manning' requirements. Had the pumps been deployable, it might be a whole different story. Contrary to what Johnpwh said, it's not just a question of 'choke sizes'. or at least, that's a point of disagreement between us. But until the ESP's can be brought online, the EPS is to my mind a bit like playing Monopoly without any Hotels being available in the box.

Goddam CV19. Spoilt all our fun. Without that I'd be heading down the road to Royan this evening to play poker, which used to pay my rent. But I can't.

Nevertheless, with things 'easing', there are seven people coming to play poker at my place on Sunday! And although we know each other and are of 'friendly' terms, I still aim to take some money off 'em. Not enough for rent, but maybe enough for my electricity bill.

Which is why I've topped-up pretty much instantaneously today. Choppy seas, but the voyage continues.

PS People comparing this to SXX are just stupid.

Mr Zarniwoop,

You asked for 'expert' clarification. 'Johnpwh' replied thus (excerpts):

"Mr Z there are no real experts on this, and even Dr T seems to be struggling and he is the expert! My take is that the network is so connected (itself a good thing, lets put a positive spin on this appalling situation), the wells are close together and turbulence from the one well is f*cking up the flow of the other (and vice versa). That will only reduce if you choke back both wells, but then you don't get the desired combined flow. Cant see a remedy how ever much you fiddle with relative rates. The wells are simply too close to each other."

I in a very limited and partial way agree with bits of what he says, but definitely with that qualifier. Because he's portraying the current state of things as being some kind of 'irredeemable situation', and that's certainly not how I read things. Which is why (after picking myself up off the floor having read the RNS) made a big top-up at spot price. For the simple reason that at around 6p, when this struggles its way back to around 10p (as it will) and I sell that slice, it will net me a nice 25% or so.

The RNS puzzles me in a way, but equally, it doesn't. The puzzlement came from its simple incongruity, in respect to past 'reporting' by the company, which is normally rather obscure and tardy. Whereas this is to-the-point and seemingly fast. Unusual. But then I thought it through, and the reason seems obvious. It's soon the AGM. Which for CV19 reasons is going to be a 'closed door' affair. But this is news which HAS to be released prior to the AGM.

There is a key phrase in the the RNS. 'Flow rate instability'. Particularly the word 'instability'. It's something I've been waiting to hear about for a while, now. Remember a few days ago a correspondent asking here about what the water in the 7z 'perched water zone' would be 'replaced with' as it depletes? The thing is related.

'Instability' in 7z's flow doesn't mean it's stopped flowing. Instead, it almost certainly means it's doing what's technically known as 'slugging'. In other words, flowing in an 'unstable' way. Think of a car 'kangeroo-hopping' with a learner driver at the wheel. Or more pertinently, a liquid being poured out of a container in a 'glug-glug' way, because air isn't getting back into the container fast enough to allow the liquid to flow out in a steady stream.

OK, I'm already running out of wordspace, so will start a new page.

DC,

"This was mentioned in the Q&A and I am surprised it hasn't been commented on previously."

Was it? Guess I missed that bit of detail. The thing being, I felt (as explained before) the CMD presentation (other than the pre-prepared slides) was in my opinion a hotch-potch mess, and a lot of stuff may have gone unnoticed or unheeded.

It's a further reason I recommend the Edison Report as being a good precis of the situation as it is, rather than the CMD, which would be good if one suffers from insomnia.

Diver69,

" People are asking for a takeover price of 30p. "

WHO, exactly?

Personally I feel that any 'takeover rumours' are quite misplaced right now. Personally I wn't even 'slice' at 30p. But 50? Yeah, at that point I'd do so, maybe even 45. But not a timid little 15% 'slice' like my last one with the SP at 54, around 50p anyone can have 90% of my holding.

But in current times, I don't see such an SP happening soon. Everyone but everyone is running scared. Be it Big Oil or Frozen Pizza.

I hold.

Maybe because I'm an oilfield nutter, and frankly don't care if CV19 kills me tomorrow.

A VERY interesting point in yesterday's Edison report was the detail that despite FoiL having been about a year ago, 'stable state testing' has only been for about five months. And at least six are needed before any solid conclusions can be drawn. So I stay watching, and holding. And topping-up at stupidly low prices when I can.

daltry,

"Sorry A2Uk - Don't know anything about HH GG.. Nice try....."

Double bluff?

daltry,

"Mr. Z (sounds like a rapper)...."

Doh. You're obviously not an afficionado of the Hitchiker's Guide to the Galaxy, are you ? But at your age, you should be.

extrader,

"I've asked Godalming Towers whether the current PI is materially different ie why the qualifier ?"

Well spotted, and a good (though very technical) question. I suspect I know the reason, but am not prepared to stick my neck out and state it for now. Should you get a reply, will you post it here, please (with HUR's permission) ?