Member Info for adoubleuk

SotB,

"Aye but you are smoking a king Eddie Cigar"

Never in a month of Sundays. Do people actually still smoke cigars, these days? Pestilential things, and terribly bad for one's health. I'll stick to my Camel Filters.

Crikey, if I rolled up at that café (where they know me) asd pulled out a cigar, (a) they'd think I'd finally lost my marbles and (b) might not serve me.

Not a cigar sort of place.Average client age about half mine (especially in the evenings), loud music (in the evenings), etc.. Those young things wouldn't be impressed by a cigar. Unless it was made from the sort of herbal tobacco some of them seem to favour.

Thedriver, Yes, WW is lth here, and also a logtime poster. But maybe he was / is lth in udog and didn't bail out at the right time. To be honest, I don't know. His business, not mine.

MCB55, My understanding is that WD's horizontal is about 1/3rd of the way down the anticipated oil column, whereas other horizontals (such as those producin on Lancaster) are only 1/4 way down, or less. Can't check this, I'm afraid, as sitting on a café terrace, nursing a beer in 34 degree heat, and writing on my phone!

Thedriver, Maybe Wellwell has been bitten by the Udog! One thing's sure. He's never understood that the Halifax RNS was 'good', despite the failed DST.

Genghis, Although I entirely agree with the overall thrust of your post, the statement 'Hurricane just don't droll dry holes' is gilding the lilly a wee bit too much, and cannot be left uncommented-upon. Er... Wellington... But most people don't mention that much, these days. In fact a large number, maybe the majority, don't know it happened.

ronok,

"[1] This well is going deeper than the assumed depth of the reservoir" No it's being drilled outside what is called 'structural closure'. There's a glossary of such terms on the HUR website. and will also have a horizontal leg at the bottom." Yes. " This will allow assessments of the fractured granite and oil in the fractures to be made in the vertical well and the horizontal leg." Not in the vertical / deviated section. That's not drilled in fractured granite, and is of no commercial interest. Not oil-bearing.

[2]"The vertical section will be cased and oil will therefore not be able to flow from this section." Correct. The bottom horizontal leg will not be cased and the granite will form the well casing [surprised me] through which hopefully oil will flow. Yes.

[3]If oil flows from the horizontal leg the pressure of the oil reservoir will have to meet the resistance of valves, chokes etc. and the head [height] of the vertical column up to the receiving ship. If the reservoir pressure is not high enough to lift the oil or the flow is too slow then I assume pumps would be used to accelerate the flow." Yes. Although the Lancaster wells flow naturally, flow being enhanced by pumps.

[3]"The horizontal leg is having extensive and expensive tests going on at this time" Correct.

[4"]If the horizontal leg is not oil bearing or found not to be commercial then it follows that the optimistic hopes on the extra depth of the reservoir are not met and expectations revert to normal." Were that the case, yes. However there are no reasons to believe that Warwick is not analagous to Lancaster, and oil-bearing.

JayKay1,

"Go figure ;o)"

I've given up trying to do that, because it does my poor little brain in. Or might turn me into some weirdo kind of conspiracy-theorist.

I reckoned (way back when), that when all the milestones to be passed HAD been passed (as they have), this SP should be at some sort of midpoint towards the 'analysts' forecasts. 80p, maybe. But not where we're at, pre-Spirit, pre-hookup, pre-FoiL, and so on. Summat 'respectable', echoing the 'fundamentals'.

And people like Wellwell can bang on until the cows come home about 'risk', but anyone unprepared to deal with that shouldn't think about driving a car, let alone investing in AIM-listed O&G.

But there's no explaining human nature. People are prepared to pour fortunes (and lose them) into Ellon Musk, with his shoddy car and ideas about going to Mars, whereas sombody opening up new frontiers to disprove (yet again) the 'peak oil' fallacy is shrugged off like a snake-oil salesman.

It defies all logic.

yuyus,

It's just about my bedtime, just glancing through today's offerings on this BB, and noticed this, from you:

" This drill has had a few hiccups , and a few schoolboy howlers , however at the casinggate ( metonymy! Wow confidence Woodford and Bernstein) they from my understanding changed tack.

Crikey. And I thought I was one of the linguistic 'experts' on here! I raise my hat to you, Sir!

(However am not sure if 'casinggate' is metonymy. It could be construed as a synendoche, instead.)

JayKay,

"WW: You're not usually one to be taking the word of SotB at face value!"

Anyone that does so is a blithering idiot.

Though despite our various and frequent differences of opinion, I'd never call Wellwell that.

Mind you, SotB sometimes has his moments of lucidity, and this BB would (IMHO) be impoverished without his presence, even if he writes some daft things at times.

But so do I...

RedRoseTea,

Yes. Current SP is 1.35 pennies, one penny being one hundredth of a pound. Literally a 'penny share'. This can make online trading from countries other than the UK difficult, in that the computers don't always recognise things right!

Which is why when I'm doing a trade (from France) it's usually on 'spot' rather than a price fixed by myself. Then it becomes just a matter of timing. The machines generally recognise 'spot', and if the trade is out by a percent or so, that doesn't bother me, 'cos I'm not that sort of 'trader'.

Good luck!

Wellwell,

Just WHEN are you going to give up your negativity? It's becoming laughable.

"Think of a bottle of coke.
-Very fizzy when opened."

Think of someone in an office and a line of coke. Gets opinionated, hammers his keyboard to bore people to death.

"-Fizzy when reopened."

Likewise. Continues.

"-Still fizzy next time"

Though people are getting bored with him repeating himself.

"-Flat as a pancake next time."

Too tired to write anything sensible when all the things he's been saying won't work, actually do.

imire,

"Only two for a quid, terrible I got over 5 for a quid"

But how much for a squid?

Sorry, noticed your low posting history, so you may not understand that in-joke.

yuyus,

" I’m saying NOBODY Knows as the DST hasn’t happened"

That's not necessarily true. Or rather, word had it recently that the DST string was being run. But getting that to 'bottom' , testing it, etc., is only part of the story. I've spent a happy few hours today googling around, going through the company's tech stuff, and so on. And there's very little about actually HOW the DST's of the past were set up, let alone how this one will be done.

But I've saneaky suspicion they'll be rigging up coil from the word go, in the same way they've gone straight for the horizontal on this well.

That's a heck of a complicated surface setup. Lots of iron.

Then running PLT's on coil down into the horizontal, getting 'em in place before even going to underbalance and starting to flow.

Plus there are things they won't want to do at night.

As the old saying goes, "you don't wan't to spoil the ship for a ha'porth of tar".

Not worried.

"The reservoir cannot be accertained without one"

Yes it can. Cf Halifax. But it's better if you can put on a spectacular firework show and give 'the market' the only thing it understands (which it doesn't, really), and that's 'flowrates'!

dan1nat1,

"This line in the RNS you referred to made me think we may get another update before the full testing results are back -

"Volume expectations will be updated following further core and log analysis." "

OK, I see your point.

But it won't happen independently of 'dynamic' (flow) testing, in my opinion.

And core / log analysis to the extent anyone's going to sign off a field volume update will still be a matter of many weeks.

"Oy ! Longwait, Leave Gomez alone !" (quoth extrader)

Seconded. Kamaz is one of the good guys.

dan1nat1,

"Any guess as to when we might get these back?"

You've already 'got them back' in the June 17th RNS.

"The West Newton A-2 well was spudded on 26 April 2019 and, on 9 June 2019, reached a total depth (TD) of 2061 metres. 28 metres of core has been successfully extracted from the primary target Kirkham Abbey formation and all planned logging operations have been successfully completed.

A net 65-metre hydrocarbon saturated interval has been encountered from within the Kirkham Abbey formation indicating a substantial hydrocarbon accumulation, including a significant liquids component."

Core result is there. And as to well logs, they're an oil company's 'crown jewels', not to be shared lightly. However the logging has established the 'payzone interval'. What more do you want? A private peek at the gamma? Where and at what pressures the MDT did its 'stops'? Could you read such logs, anyway?

Such data will be incorporated into that acquired by the EWT, to establish a coherent picture of just how big (and how commercial' what's been found actually is. So barring any interim reports, giving a hint of flowrates and so on, don't expect to get details for weeks yet.

yobbo,

" The big issue though is that the Fed might have to intervene as the amount of debt that is out there is so large that it could put the lenders at risk."

That's the point, entirely. Because who are the 'lenders' ? They're not little PI's like ourselves, they're the big financial houses and banks which keep Wall Street propped up.

And the Fed can't really bail them all out, 'cos the Fed is Broke, as well.

Dunno if you've seen this thing, but it's kind of ... interesting.

https://www.usdebtclock.org/

And the USA has a president who has been quoted as sauing he 'loves' debt...

PS Excuse typos, pls. It's been a very long day...

Genghis,

" it does seem to me that all is not as it seems with the shale boom"

Something is not all that it seems with two things which are so intertwined these days that if one collapsed, so would the other. Probably leading to some sort of Armageddon Mad Max situation in very short order. These two bedfellows are the Oil Industry and Global Banking.

I found tht article interesting, but it revolves around one particular compan, Pioneer. Which although once a 'leader' in shale, is no Exxon. And if one of the major ways they're trying to get back to something even vaguely looking like profit is major layoffs and so on, that begs the question why they didn't do that four years ago.

A paradigm shift has occured in the last 30 years or so. That's the realisation that 'peak oil' is a non-starter. It doesn't exist. But there's a problem. If oil was priced according to availability, it'd be about seven dollars a barrel. And Mad Max would already be flourishing, but not many others.

Plus now you've got the 'green' thing tossed into the mix, making it yet more complicated.

What we think of in 2019 as 'twenty-first century civilisation' (if it exists) is a terribly fragile constuct, far less robust than a hundred years ago. Or two hundred. There are far more plates for the guy on the stage to keep spinning, and they're all looking rather wobbly...

One 'must read' to get an inkling of the banking / oil relationship is 'Funny Money' by Mark Singer, pub Picador. It's now out of print, but copies can be had on ebay for a quid or two. It's about something a lot of people would rather not remember, the 'deep gas' boom in the late seventies. It's excellent (enjoyable) reading, and an eye-opener: the parralels with shale during the recent 'slump' of the last six years is startling. Except post-2008, a different 'remedy' was found because the problem was so widespread, not confined to Texas and Oklahoma.

I dunno why it's out of print.

daltry, I'm afraid I have to agree with you. The 'Hurricane story' remains as exciting as ever, but it's simply not being reflected in the SP.