Member Info for adoubleuk

Wellwell,

"AK “Many of these constraints are now removed, and it's evident that these wells 'want to flow'. (You've got to have worked in the field to properly understand that phrase!)”.

Is that like unrestricted flow which in context means unconstrained although the latter sounds like a blow out!!! Not that any one is splitting hairs! "

Despite the many differences we've had on this BB, I still read your posts, and obviously you still read mine.

Your latest brought a big grin to my face, genuinely and honestly. But also followed by a frown of serious thought and pondering.

We're talking oilfield technical semantics, here. And Rona Ridge isn't an ultradeep overpressured thing like Macondo. But 'lose control' of it? What a horrific idea.

But that's why this little 'garden shed' company has gone state-of-the-art all along.

A lot of people don't understand that. The techniques, equipment, and methodology used so far have been exactly the same as those employed by the 'big boys', if not better and even more cautious.

Thedriver,

"How many years is the Lancaster field expected to produce oil ??"

How long is a piece of string?

Until the cows come home. Until someone invents workable cold fusion. Until the volcano blows.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cbzIVR1OaAY

Jacdaniels,

"Is it believed now that HUR could ramp up to 30,000 bod, without the need for the gas pipeline, even though HUR have consistently advised 20,000 bpd max for the EPS."

I don't think there's anyone posting here who could properly answer that question for you. Certainly not myself.But as per my earlier post, Hurricane (fortunately) tends to be conservative in its forecasts. Plus also, the 20,000 bbl estimate is an average, which means that at times the wells will be producing more than that... It's not a 'max'.

JoeBass,

"Amount of oil sold is an RNS event, period."

No it isn't.

We'll probably have to wait for the half-yearly interim Financial Report for that, and even then (for we grockles) it probably won't be broken down into a 'per tanker' format.

And all of a sudden, sitting on a café terrace, sipping a beer (nothing to do with a certain poster here!), I've had a 'flash': a realisation of why production rates may be different from those prognosed and published, and indeed higher. As we seem to be seeing. Ignoring possible equipment 'problems' which could lead to low average rates following initial startup, and also the company's characteristic (and laudable) conservatism when 'prognosing', the initial rates are just a 'model' built on prior DST data. And a DST is necessarily 'constrained', not simply in equipment terms, both surface and downhole, but also the relatively short period of time over which the tests are conducted. Many of these constraints are now removed, and it's evident that these wells 'want to flow'. (You've got to have worked in the field to properly understand that phrase!) The SP might be sluggard, but I can sleep quite easy in the knowledge that the thing I initially invested in, when the EPS was just a thing on paper and I'd never even heard of the Aoka Mizu, is working so well.

Jiffy,

"Took my little Lotus Elise for an MOT today, passed no problem as always. Duly happy, I said to them 'how much to change the rubber flexible brake hoses with stainless braided ones and (of course) the fluid'. The hoses are 20 years old, he thought it a good idea. In my mind £150 inc parts. Answer..... £500. Kin 'ell, it is apparently a very time consuming job.'

Lotus. Lots of Trouble, Usually Serious.

But yeah, if you've been advised to change your 20-year old brake hoses by sompeone cogniscent in the matter, do so. And why not upgrade to stainless-braided at the same time?

I'm in such a situation right now.

A year ago, on a 500-mile trip south of Perpignan, my coolant level was indicating low. As I was obliged to get there for a truckrace, I did, topping-up with 6 litres of coolant on the way.

In the paddcck, took various 'shouds' and things of the engine, identified the leaking hose, but (with more important things to do), I drove home with fingers crossed, using a further 12 litres of liquid. It was nerve-wracking, but I made it.

Having got to my local friendly garage, I got a call a day later²², saying I ought to come and look at things, which I did. And was horrified. End result, not just one hose-change, but the whole dam lot, 'cos they were all of the same age. Plus the A/C drivebelt and pulley.

Do it now. My problem then was just the cooling-system. Of course, had it completely gone, it could have wrecked the engine.

But if the brakes go on your lively little sportscar at speed, it could be worse than that.

Safety first.

AK

Wellwell,

"There’s no evidence they did flow the wells ‘un-restricted’ but if they did then I’m sure it’s worth doing as part of the overall data gathering process."

I don't think anyone here has suggested the wells have been flowed 'un-restricted'.

In my book, 'unrestricted flow' is called a 'blowout'.

Nothing like that has happened in the N.Sea nor WoS for decades....

Wellwell,

"The risk of over-production here is water coning but we’re guided that the water contact is very deep. If in the worst case scenario water is drawn up then it’s possible with proper management it can return to ‘normal’ by controlling the flow. "

Yes, maybe, but now you're clutching at straws to continue your 'negativity' for whoever is pulling your lead. You're talking absolute bollocks, and should give up, because you're beginning to make a fool of yourself, negating whatever credibility you might have had as an 'oil-knowledgable' person on this site.

Bartlebottom,

" Nixon, aka tricky dicky, is seen as one of the most deceitful US presidents that ever lived"

Maybe. But he essentially based all his further career on having been a demon poker-player during his time in the navy. Check it out.

I doubt that the present POTUS could even spell the word 'deceitful' on his twitter-feeds, let alone give a rough definitition of what the word means.

Yrs, slighly tipsy after an evening in a 'rough' café, but where we're all 'honest thieves', and my car in a garage 90 miles away awaiting repairs but everything covered by insurance,

adoubleuk

SIPP,

"Haha Biffadog we were writing around the same time and agreed!"

I wasn't typing here, but read Biffa's post and just gave it a thumbs-up. Particularly liked his last line. The price of crude oil can now be affected by a two-liner bit of nonsense coming over 'twitter' from an obviously deranged POTUS.

We live in a completely different world, these days. Not like the 70's at all. At least Nixon was an honest criminal.

boblondon,

"we are hitting the headlines everywhere amazing stuff
yet to see union jack in the headlines yet
you know what that means herd are going to come in rbd"

Won't argue with you on that. And let's hope 'the herd' gets wind of things, because it could be good, even if it may result in possibly unwelcome volatility.

I couldn't help noticing that early yesterday, UJO and RBD led the 'share risers' 1st and 2nd positions in that order, but later on, those positions were reversed. People taking profits from one and putting some of those profits into the other, maybe? I suspect this may continue for a while.

The media coverage prioretising RBD over UJO comes as no surprise to me personally, because the two companies' 'positions' regarding WN and Rathlin are wildly different. And financial journalists aren't ALWAYS stupid!

Plus S&S 'present' themselves a lot better.

Badger99,

I've been in RBD for quite a long while now, and due to the assorted timings of the other projects considered Parta to be 'a long way in the future', so didn't research it closely, not knowing if I'd still be 'in' when the time came.

But of course now, it's 'imminent future'.

For people intersted in the tech side (and able to understand it), that link you sent is gold-dust, and remarkably detailed. I hadn't seen it before.

Thanks.

"I don’t think the market is quite as anal as many on here are quite honestly and not every event is considered that significant at first. "

In this I feel I must agree with Wellwell. Though I disagree with his use of the word 'anal'. Shipwatchers aren't trainspotters, you know. Keeping an eye of operations can serve a purpose for some people, it's not just stamp-collecting.

I very much doubt if the employees of companies holding and trading HUR (and many other) shares as a business were even aware that there was a tanker out there until yesterday mid-morning, started their Monday work, found out about it, and asked their boss if it was 'significant' enough to reprogram the trading-machine.

Biffa,

"Obviously the DST results need to deliver for WD to be defined as a success. Nobody is suggesting otherwise."

But playing devil's advocate, I'd like to do so, though only in a very limited and niggling way.

The DST on Halifax was a washout. But nevertheless the well can be counted as a successful discovery. Albeit lacking the extra data a good DST might have provided.

I'm expecting a good DST on Warwick, though.

Quotes from Wellwell:

"This week or next will be the WD DST. Let’s hope it’s not a duster ;-)" (15:21)

"How do we know there’s a DST? Has this been confirmed officially?" (16:46)

Quote from George Berkley, an 18thC Anglical Bishop, though sometimes wrongly attributed to Bertrand Russell:

"If a tree falls in a forest and nobody hears it, does it make a sound?"

chablard,

"I think everybody and their maiden aunts knows by now that oil flow (pressure) was, and I heard the word, "phenomenal " at FOIL."

A tech point. Flow is not the same as pressure!

However, as to the rest, yes, a couple of whispers I've gained from the 'grapevine' indicate that the wells came in better than expected...

shutts,

" would you like me to post you some salt and pepper to season your cowboy hat?"

That's kind of you, but as Dr BB has said, it's already well seasoned! However you'll note that I haven't advanced any particular offload volume, myself. And I'm damned if I'm going to donate my hat for Cebo's dinner if he turns out to be wrong.

shutts,

" Dr T & the BoD made it clear it would be c.9K per day. If Dr T says 9K per day then it will be 9K per day"

We have been informed c.9K per day average over the first couple of months. There is no reason why production may not have been significantly higher than that over these initial couple of weeks (see posts passim).

Nobody without inside information (and those with such information shouldn't be posting here) knows what the production rate has been so far, so deduction of the volume being offloaded today is pure guesswork.

Snowcameron,

Nevertheless, lest's not be TOO hasty!

I've been thinking about this a wee bit more. And there's a lot more data-gathering still to be done over an extended period of time.

Now I'm not a reservoir engineer. But what we're seeing with this first tanker-load makes instinctive 'scientific' sense. Produce like stink initially, then maybe shut in one well and see what the pressure-response is, and also with the other well running at the same rate. Then repeat, but with the other well flowing. A bigger initial drawdown will give more easily interpreted ('bigger') shutin data. Etc..

Plus there will inevitably be pig-runs to be done, and so on.

So although this 'early' tanker arrival is great, and smiley-face stuff, maybe not too much should be read into it regarding further offload frequencies in the next few months. Ie, frequency may diminish a bit, but such a 'slowdown' shouldn't be taken as 'bad news'.

Hmm, this thing's becoming interesting, again! And there I was, mainly now thinking about Warwick...

Snowcameron,

"Estimating production over the long term based on HUR guidance (typically conservative) is sensible but is is subject to numerous assumptions."

Yes. And if there's one thing I've been (privately) sceptical about, suspecting it to be very conservative, it's the six-month 'ramp-up schedule' to full optimised production rate.I think there's a heck of a lot of 'contingency' built-in. Sure, there's all sorts of data-gathering and 'experimentation' to be done, but even so...

As always, I may be wrong in this. But with the tanker coming in already, there's no way they've been producing at a mere 9000 bbl / day since the flare was first seen on the AM.