Member Info for AB124

Chippyjo
I think the issue with the CLNs is more about the repayment of the loan which has been delayed for three years.
If theremaining notes were all excercised by RM they would be obliged to bid for the the company. Since they probably don't want to do that the conversion would have been highly unlikely.
That point aside, what do you think would happen to the Share Price if the Notes were converted?

Chelsea7
Why do you say discussing the delayed maturity for the CLNs is negative spin?
What is the positive that is being spun away from?
I'm intrigued to hear why you say that.

Ruck Rover
Absolutely!

Crumbs,
Thanks for your comments.
To me that's the way to discuss a point, and yes we do agree on the overall attraction of Scancell longer term!
ATB

Ratcliffewriter
I try to choose my words as I wish to use them.
So from googling Deviance I find
"Deviance refers to rule-breaking behaviour of some kind which fails to conform to the norms and expectations of a particular society or social group." I think thats quite apt in the context of my response! :-)
Being at deviance suggests a divergence as set out above.
No, I am happy with my choice of words, but thanks for your concern!

Crumbs,
I set my thoughts out for you, and I can generally communicate successfully.
We obviously don't agree entirely but you are doing exactly what I was talking about.
You stated,
"Also the Diggle wiggles had a lot to do with keeping sp above 20p as well as keeping it below 30p too... market does what it does it is most sentiment driven till told otherwise ie suddenly Merck move in on Covidity".
That's fair comment but you are at deviance with some here who are unable to understand the nuances of the market. The sentiment was amended by Diggle. In the quote you have two different reasons for market movements neither of which are "buyers mopping" as one source has explained the reason for the tight range we saw. One of your examples in particular is far from a Perfect market! :-)
So on balance we differ, but I am happy to watch and see what happens rather than look for the Merk intervention ATM. As I see it the CLN deferral says we shouldn't expect A Merk moment any time soon.
Our differing views are exactly what makes a market!
AIMO

Crumbs
I won't labour the point but my main thrust relates to the mechanism that kept the SP in the six month range.
How many RNS in that time were seen as good but the SP closed down on the day?
Think about it.
If that was the Perfect Market at play why didn't the SP go North and stay there?
If the market wasn't quite perfect then we can begin to try and understand why the SP didn't react in the way it did on so many occasions.
If that thought is taken and extended it might explain why the SP has fallen yesterday and today.
If I was approached for funds and I believed in Scancell I would want as many shares as I could get for my money.
That presupposes that any funding doesn't come from Data. If we were expecting commercially attractive Data in the near future why extend the CLNs?
AIMO

WTP
Absolutely!
People want to believe and when the wonderful news doesn't appear they react illogically.
It's reasonable to believe that many would have trickled out some or all of their holding before the EOYs but eventually held in the expectation of wonderful news.
Now some are severely p*ss*d off.
'Twas ever thus (at least since 2012). LOL
AIMO

Crumbs
Well, yesterday afternoon and this morning's SP movement rather gives lie to the frequently posted view on this BB that Scancell has been a perfect market with the ebb and flow of trades keeping the VERY tight range in place over the last six months or so.
Depending on where we close today that range might be broken.
If it is (on a day when the "Perfect Market" didn't work), and with an indicated (entirely reasonable) delay in the progression of Scancell's commercialisation there's the possibility of a lower trading range being formed.
Quite understandable particularly as all the Prophesies of wonderful news being pushed out with the EOY figures today maybe some of the more impatient PIs who've got used to the Range we've seen might just feel that enough is enough for the time being.
If only people were conditioned to HOPE for Good News Not be told every time that there's going to be great news then things might be a little different for the SP.
As it is the damage has been done - yet again. NO wonderful news, so weakness.
Think back to the RNS where there was good news... SP held back.
Now it looks likely that DATA will be the requirement, the horizon's been pushed further away again.
Hope that helps.
Why oh Why can't people simply sit back and wait instead of building silly expectations?
I wonder how long this post will survive? Like Kashdog i really don't care if it gets taken down. Life's too short . :-)

AIMO

Might be tempting for any source of funds in the future to see the SP a little less buoyant maybe?
AIMO

Darkprince,
So who said it was going to be full of brilliant news?

Chester,
No worries, it's just that I wonder whether the "Scancell Slippage" has as much to do with the extension as anything else.
Having said that it's pretty well irrelevant what the reason is apart from the fact that Scancell seemingly has more time.
Problem there is that as some have justified the cash we have as being sufficient up to 2022 the next question (which hopefully will already have been considered by BOD) is whence will come the future funding to keep us going until 2025. I imagine that's what gave the SP a jittery ride this afternoon.
I'm sure that Scancell will allay all those fears tomorrow morning! :-)
AIMO

Chester,
As a matter of fact neither of the tranches of CLNs were agreed pre pandemic.
They were agreed in August and November 2020 well after the Pandemic struck.

Violin,
Please don't draw me to thinking about a cash raiser.... Otherwise why as you say wouldn't they leave the CLN amendment until the morning?
So we have a longer time to CLN maturity, a likely substantially increased cash burn, an horizon which has shifted from 2022 to 2025 and the last possible day to announce the Y/E results.
Put like that it looks terrible. I really want to be wrong. I do hope LD has a CEO aligned mentor given her relatively recent elevation to the top Financial Job.
I'm sure everything will really be OK long term, it's the short, short term that is the concern.
AIMO

WTP
Certainly looks that the Redemption Date is the only difference.
I'd be very annoyed if there were any other differences in the terms.
Actually, there had better damned well be no other changes!
If there are Heads should roll.
:-)
AIMO

What an excellent RNS.
Now Scancell have the demonstrated support of RM, the, "got to get the required Data by 2022 no longer applies and RM seem to have taken nothing intrinsically more than they had before.
It does suggest to me that the wait might now be a little longer than some expect, but any seasoned Scancell investor knows about waiting! :-)
So we can sit back and see what sort of worries might have been had this information not have been made available in front of the EOY results tomorrow.
Interestingly this takes away "Control" of the CLNs from Vulpes and demonstably puts RM in the driving seat.
I suspect maybe a greater cash burn than anyone has anticipated.
At least RM seem to be happy to wait.
AIMO

Monkster
Quite!
Well put.

C7
As I said it's a question of Nuance.
Disagreeing isn't a bad thing. It shows a grown up approach, hence my anticipation that you would undersatnd (but possibly not acknowledge and discuss) my different and long held slant on the situation.
So maybe there's been a small inching forward here.
Other views are available! and can be equally (if not more) plausable!
Thanks for accepting that (I think). :-)
AIMO

Ratcliffewriter
No problem.
I know because I believe what they tell us and have posted here over the years.
So no detective work required.
Does this mean you don't believe them?
AIMO

C7
I am not really agreeing with you as I don't believe that , "the sales are being bought up".
The implication in your comment in your posts are different from mine. You are suggesting that the market is perfect, ie there are buyers for sellers loose stock.
I'm not convinced. i have been saying this for months rather than weeks and the comment about Data has been my mantra for the best part of a year. That is what RM and Vulpes bought for us. Time to produce data.
To test my comments try and get some deep pocketed investors (well known LTHs from this BB maybe) to set up a sustained buying campagn and see how much they have to buy to get a solid and permament move up to (say) 30p.
i would be very surprised if such an attempt didn't attract all the stock they could buy, and (without News - Data particularly) that the result after say a week of sated buying the SP wasn't back to the levels before the "Concerted Buying" started. It would be an interesting exercise because there are many on this BB who have sufficient disposable funds not to worry about the interim opportunity cost of such a move and so would allow us to establish whether there are greater things at play than simply a market where sellers match buyers and vice versa.
That's why I think anyone who really believes that something will shift us significantly North that isn't substantial and irrefutable evidence that any one of the platforms is showing success in both Safety and Efficacy) will be disappointed.
I should say that personally I would be very happy to see a near 50% increase in the SP.... but I believe we have to wait.Honestly!
Finally i don't understand your bit about, "No problem AB I said that in the post they twisted!!!!!!!" but don't worry about it, I just wanted to point out the difference in nuance between what you are saying and what I believe. I think it is an important difference in terms of the likely price movements going forward.
AIMO