Member Info for Aaroon

I see a lot of discussion on the 321 usd of booked revenues. These i think are important considerations when you model out

Till now SEE has indicated that OEM royalties were

FY22 - 5.5 mill AUD

FY21 - 2.28 mill AUD

That is close to 5 million USD

So we are left with 316 million usd.

SEE financial reports and clear most of this will be recognised over next 5 years. Let that sink in. Thats 63 million usd per year on average till 2028. Thats the floor analysis.

You must consider that this is royalty revenue, essentially cash. SEE with its royalty revenues is a cash machine, thats what safestocks has been trying to communicate and thats why it should be priced over 5 billion.

Also these are minimum volumes, wouldn’t be surprised if this is 450-500 million usd instead

There is no doubt its a SEE dms. When PMG decided to get into bed with magna and valeo he wanted to make sure these tier1 would not be bidding for contracts with any other DMS supplier

RedEye analysis of DMS/ OMS in mirror viz SEE and Magna is blatantly wrong. We know VW is going to roll out the mirror products across its platform. That by itself makes the mirror strategy a great success. Totally confused with this analysis TBH

SEE has already flagged high cash burn for FY2023, and has already commited to a sequential decrease in cashburn going forward. Remember SEE has not yet drawn down on the whole of Magna funds. There is no need to panic on this regard.

Going forward there should be a reduction in R&D expenses, the Gen3 product design has in fact being one of the main drivers for increased cost, other being the ramp up of automotive programs. Although i expect H2 2023 costs to be high, we might see reduced costs from H12024 onwards, this is what PMG has indicated already.

If i had to guess what an embedded product like gen3 would cost to design and validate i think it should be north of 10 million AUD. I estimate at least 2 FPGA engineers, 2 firmware and 2 test engineers with one program manager one software architect and one hardware engineer add to that field testing, factory runs small batches and validation. These are not costs that are covered by NRE payments. Every time there is a new generation of guardian we will see substantial cost overruns. I hope they dont have to redesign the guardian product again in coming few years.

SEE has open periods for employees to buy stocks and these span a couple of months usually. Given that the Colins RNS was recently declared and PMG bought shares few days back, i would think the open period might stretch few more weeks to a month atleast. There are exceptions to this, but i am not expecting any RNS to drop in June.

What we know for certain is BMW numbers going to ramp up this year followed by VW next year. Its safe to assume we will have more than a million new cars added every quarter once VW kicks in. i see 10 million AUD from auto in a couple of quarters. The wait is almost over

Terry, simulators are much more expensive, i wouldnt be surprised if it is 5 to 10 times.

the simulator product is very different than aircraft product. One is meant for training feedback and much more human factor research has gone into it

US$700 million in the next 20 years = 35 million per year

Airbus + Boeing deliveries 2022 = 2000 approx

so 10k per unit is 20 million per year, assuming all of them has SEE sw or similar

simulators might be more expensive

looks to me 700 million 20 years is a realistic number

What PMG promised in the italian job

1. Aviation license deal close to be prosecuted should deliver more than 15 million aud upfront

2. First RFQ in process 330 aircraft and 18 pilot training simulators, Aircraft SW per unit is 10,000 approx.

3. We have been able to run trails and win business with largest airlines. Model we want to prosecute is recurring revenue with upfront

Check on 1 and 3 , i am not sure if 10000 aud per aircraft or simulator only. If it is 10k aud per aircraft that would be immense !!

SEE presentation at NTSB

From 1 hour 50 mins

https://www.windrosemedia.com/livewebcast/version9/WebcastPortal/webcast.php?webcast_id=297&rpath=/clients/ntsb/public

yeah true, just keep this in mind that SEE has ramped up teams for aviation. I am not here to pump this stock, just share information. Lot of things can still go wrong, till the deal is inked and RNS.

i am informed that its close to 600 not 400. I presume its with contract teams in vietnam/ india
Seems like aviation project is in full swing, expect RNS soon hopefully

with news of the silicon valley bank in distress just a day after the silvergate, I am expecting a carnage in the markets. I am happy SEE does not need to raise cash in this environment. Expecting things might get real ugly real fast. This is the only company i am confident in adding

Oh wow must be very popular to have a wait list

Found the video just as i was about to log into office. almost gave it a pass, seeing that it was 2 months old. But have Sydney mardi gras to thank for forcing me to take another look. The office celebration of Mardi Gras meant i was left with very little work for the day. After listening 15 mins, i thought someone was pulling a joke. Maybe its a deep fake :), and it became more unbelievable. 330 aircraft really!! and you are belting out unit figures and contract times.
And then you tell me how you really feel about smarteye, how toyota will source dms, you are speaking to my soul.
But thankfully I have seen PMG in the flesh and as he relaxed his shoulders, the only tell sign this man has, for the first time in years i could feel this is the end of the investment thesis.
i listened to it twice, first time i wasnt sure i would share this video, maybe send a mail to SEE. But the balance of harm did not make sense. While watching the second time a sudden wild excitement caught hold and there you go guys.
Thank the italian boys or whoever posted this, thank you mardi gras

The board was clearly unhappy with ken post dilution. Good to know the back story.
I have great respect for ken and paul both. See needed someone technical as ken in the helm in the initial years and someone like paul to execute the vision.
I am also impressed that PMG refused to give guidance very unlike other CEOs.

Yeah i never understood CFPs game
I doubt he is an ex employee.

I hope colin sees this video.

You all owe me a party for digging this up

Lol time to get some shares i think