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Yeah Seeing2030, i agree there is a high probability - "it will be new models they are releasing this year, they won’t be going beyond the regs." VW sticks to steering control as long as they can for legacy models. , unfortunately very much a possibility, we should consider for this year projections
Thanks Maplinman for pointing out the numbers for Western Europe close to 700k. For my 1 million units per month, for VW i have taken both Western Europe and North America. My assumption is ID7 in NorthAmerica shares the same driver assistance tech as in Europe. I have no idea what the rampup of production looks like for VW, but Martin gave us two crucial hints to figure out the probable volumes and earnings for VW
1. He said most of the volumes are now to 2028
2. 6.5 million to 7.5 million as the forecasted volume for 2026
If we assume VW contract of 82 million USD, 85 percent falls within 2028, that 70 million over 4 years, roughly 17.5 USD per annum.
But large volumes like VW, we lose on per unit.
@glandore Why should we correlate EVs and DMS ? Is there a link between them?
Martin made prediction on 2026 automotive volumes in
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2SwNqrdZZ4o&t=746s
Automotive 62 USD million
Awarded business 6.5 - 7.5 million units based on minimum lifetime volumes for projects already won
My rough calculations
Above 1 million per quarter for VW
Above 250k per quarter for BMW
Subaru SOP 2025 - 50-100k
Renault SOP SOP late 2024 - 50-100k
Existing volumes for other legacy viz Merc Bluecruise and SuperCruise - 240k
My calculations get me close to 1.7 million in automotive volumes , 6.8 million per year , very much in the mid range of 5.5 to 7.5 million Martin quoted.
Note the following
First this are minimum volume projections
Secondly 2026 sees two new programmes one European 30 miill USD and another US 15 million USD. I am not taking this at all into consideration.
In order to achieve these numbers, we need to see VW and BMW numbers in the next two KPIs.
Seizetheday read it here
https://archive.md/czXKj
My concerns are the following
1. Magna has not being able to win another major OEM, Mirror might be a great solution but its no longer in hands of SEE. OEMs have to buy into the Magna mirror, which requires them to invest deeply into the Magna ecosystem. A DMS buy now becomes a smart mirror buy perhaps 20x the cost. i suspect OEMs are showing reluctance to commit with Magna, can they be forced to given the ease of integration, who knows.
2. SmartEye will keep reporting inflated numbers and keep claiming market leadership and thus cast doubt on SEE for the near term.
3. Aftermarket sales, the company doesnot have confidence, given the new segment
Excellent Clarity on how SEE reports viz SmartEye. SEE reports on minimum guaranteed volumes vs SmartEye on total lifetime valuation. I think PMG signaled that SmartEye projections are taking a extreme bull case, and SEE is the bear case. The GM contract, from SmartEye, now makes sense as SmartEye reported full lifetime projections. Martin is being is a wizard with number as always. It now also makes perfect sense why SmartEye automotive volumes are not catching up to their projections, perhaps why CFOs leave. With VW going into production, we will soon see how bear the minimum lifetime valuation really is to actual.
PMG also validated what i have been hearing, SEE is reducing their headcount aggressively. I think this includes senior HR staff, and other PM roles, for projects that have completed.
Aviation is as i expected, a year away from delivery, no surprises there.
@phil01 perhaos you can ask some engineers who worked with DMS about
1. Can Ford select DMS vendors for its Bluecruise or does it have to select the tier1 and the DMS vendor it brings.
2. Is DMS in hands free driving scenarios independent of the tier1 solution
3. If veoneer works with SEE can it replace that with a solution from smarteye tomorrow
4. Does smartyeye solution port to Xilinx platform and how long it takes
SmartEye can surely win Ford/GM contracts but its not easy to pry out SEE from the L2+ handsfree solutions.
Relax guys Bluecruise is SEE. It took 3 years to validate SEE DMS in ford bluecruise.
It isnt easy to plug in another DMS into a platform like bluecruise.
If SmartEye managed to get into Bluecruise it aint hapenning before 2-3 years of engineering work behind the scene.
Imagine Ford going that route, i dont think it is realistic at all.
Also its veoneer as tier1. I havent seen any collaboration between Veoneer and SmartEye
I agree with Maps, SmartEye needs to raise substantially to stay afloat for at least a couple of years or even more. its the cash position of SEE that allows me to watch and wait and let this play out over the next year. Also, SEE has multiple paths to profitability now, aviation, aftermarket and auto royalties.
Fingers crossed we hit all the cost cutting targets and the breakeven targets and more than exceed the revenue projections
The problem with standalone DMS based driver impairment detection, esp the use case of drunk driving , is lack of real time data.
SEE will never be able to get real life data for DUI, they can gather data for gaze eue closure etc in non driving conditions. As pointed out by Tim Edwards a year or so earlier- a lot of AI research into transforming this data has to be undertaken.
I am confident SEE has been working on this for over a couple of years. But they cannot claim they detect impairment. Even if successful no regulatory authority could accept this just on SEE saying so.
I think Magna needs the breath analyser just to make that claim. Even though the detection is primarily based on DMS gaze and pupil.
Personally i feel, we have been extremely harsh on SEE management. We know management can provide forward statements subject to market risks and delays. The only statement, I feel, management made that was out of place, was the imminent aviation contracts. They should not have used the imminent word, but given this is a small company and this is a one-off, I am not terribly upset.
If the management does not provide any forward statements, we would all have exited this share probably. I hope people can be bit more rational and kinder, when SEE expectations of contracts are delayed. I personally am quite happy about how the management has conducted themselves.
PMG and team will never be able to predict and control contract timelines, yet they have to signal to us something about the horizon. So let us be more forgiving
Doubtful this is super cruise or ultra cruise. These are not going to be such high volumes or high number of models as i understand. Also i dont know if SEYE has been sucessful with L3 + level cars.
But yeah it might end up in tears for all the players in the industry, if this low balling of contracts continue
most interesting to me is supplying dms as tier1 supplier. thats quite a radical change.
maybe someone here has some experience with automotive supply chains to p**** the implications of being a tier1 instead of supplying to a tier1