Member Info for Aaroon

Seizetheday read it here

https://archive.md/czXKj

Thanks MajorLong, for the details. I have however heard of another major OEM whose deal with Magna fell apart at the final finish line. Hopefully with VW production ans sucessful ramup we see more mirror deals

Escovido, lets hope so. Even if we only have the VW deal for smart mirrors, i think it was worth having the mirror exclusivity with Magna, considering they put in cheap money to pull us across the line.

My concerns are the following

1. Magna has not being able to win another major OEM, Mirror might be a great solution but its no longer in hands of SEE. OEMs have to buy into the Magna mirror, which requires them to invest deeply into the Magna ecosystem. A DMS buy now becomes a smart mirror buy perhaps 20x the cost. i suspect OEMs are showing reluctance to commit with Magna, can they be forced to given the ease of integration, who knows.

2. SmartEye will keep reporting inflated numbers and keep claiming market leadership and thus cast doubt on SEE for the near term.

3. Aftermarket sales, the company doesnot have confidence, given the new segment

Excellent Clarity on how SEE reports viz SmartEye. SEE reports on minimum guaranteed volumes vs SmartEye on total lifetime valuation. I think PMG signaled that SmartEye projections are taking a extreme bull case, and SEE is the bear case. The GM contract, from SmartEye, now makes sense as SmartEye reported full lifetime projections. Martin is being is a wizard with number as always. It now also makes perfect sense why SmartEye automotive volumes are not catching up to their projections, perhaps why CFOs leave. With VW going into production, we will soon see how bear the minimum lifetime valuation really is to actual.

PMG also validated what i have been hearing, SEE is reducing their headcount aggressively. I think this includes senior HR staff, and other PM roles, for projects that have completed.

Aviation is as i expected, a year away from delivery, no surprises there.

More volumes from bluecruise should be very welcome news. The margins for SEE is also much higher for the full chip solution. My understanding is it is close to 20 dollars

@phil01 perhaos you can ask some engineers who worked with DMS about

1. Can Ford select DMS vendors for its Bluecruise or does it have to select the tier1 and the DMS vendor it brings.

2. Is DMS in hands free driving scenarios independent of the tier1 solution

3. If veoneer works with SEE can it replace that with a solution from smarteye tomorrow

4. Does smartyeye solution port to Xilinx platform and how long it takes

SmartEye can surely win Ford/GM contracts but its not easy to pry out SEE from the L2+ handsfree solutions.

Relax guys Bluecruise is SEE. It took 3 years to validate SEE DMS in ford bluecruise.

It isnt easy to plug in another DMS into a platform like bluecruise.

If SmartEye managed to get into Bluecruise it aint hapenning before 2-3 years of engineering work behind the scene.

Imagine Ford going that route, i dont think it is realistic at all.

Also its veoneer as tier1. I havent seen any collaboration between Veoneer and SmartEye

I agree with Maps, SmartEye needs to raise substantially to stay afloat for at least a couple of years or even more. its the cash position of SEE that allows me to watch and wait and let this play out over the next year. Also, SEE has multiple paths to profitability now, aviation, aftermarket and auto royalties.

Fingers crossed we hit all the cost cutting targets and the breakeven targets and more than exceed the revenue projections

The problem with standalone DMS based driver impairment detection, esp the use case of drunk driving , is lack of real time data.

SEE will never be able to get real life data for DUI, they can gather data for gaze eue closure etc in non driving conditions. As pointed out by Tim Edwards a year or so earlier- a lot of AI research into transforming this data has to be undertaken.

I am confident SEE has been working on this for over a couple of years. But they cannot claim they detect impairment. Even if successful no regulatory authority could accept this just on SEE saying so.

I think Magna needs the breath analyser just to make that claim. Even though the detection is primarily based on DMS gaze and pupil.

Personally i feel, we have been extremely harsh on SEE management. We know management can provide forward statements subject to market risks and delays. The only statement, I feel, management made that was out of place, was the imminent aviation contracts. They should not have used the imminent word, but given this is a small company and this is a one-off, I am not terribly upset.

If the management does not provide any forward statements, we would all have exited this share probably. I hope people can be bit more rational and kinder, when SEE expectations of contracts are delayed. I personally am quite happy about how the management has conducted themselves.

PMG and team will never be able to predict and control contract timelines, yet they have to signal to us something about the horizon. So let us be more forgiving

Yeah right now its Volvo and SEYE. But given the complaints about DMS that volvo has from customers i wouldn't be surprised they followed the BMW route

Volvo?

Doubtful this is super cruise or ultra cruise. These are not going to be such high volumes or high number of models as i understand. Also i dont know if SEYE has been sucessful with L3 + level cars.

But yeah it might end up in tears for all the players in the industry, if this low balling of contracts continue

The other thing is the basic math. 46 models at 150 million usd. 3.2 million per model lifetime?

doesnt it sound crazy cheap, or i am missing something here

most interesting to me is supplying dms as tier1 supplier. thats quite a radical change.

maybe someone here has some experience with automotive supply chains to p**** the implications of being a tier1 instead of supplying to a tier1

It aint gonna work without IR cameras. Maybe the genius figured out a way to create IR cameras by OTA.

Or he is plain lying

Presented at The North American Fatigue Management Program (NAFMP)

https://vimeo.com/875731049

Revenue in FY2026 expected to be not less than US$125m

Mercedes is the major contributor to auto numbers historically. Recent quarters might have changed in favour of bmw

Thats my analysis