Member Info for Aaroon

Ah sorry, it was there an option with guardian gen2 too, ignore please

Found this Guardian Dashcam on the SEE website.. Click on the next button and clearly shows a forward facing camera too in the hardware for guardian gen3

Surprised that the Mitac partnership is already on its way. So i suppose we have an additional product SEE Dashcam

https://seeingmachines.com/products/fleet/

@Maps , in addition what was intriguing was that quarter of the RFQs was for the mirror location.

Not counting out Toyota, but I think Its Nissan and Mitsubishi that are going to be the most likely new customers.

That would bring all the OEMS in the Nissan-Mitsubishi-Renault Alliance.

Just me playing the guessing game here ....

@Maps i would think we have more chance of a Nissan contract, and not Toyota. What do you think

@Seeing-2020 Tim and Sebastian are still associated with the company.

Last i checked few years back Sebastien Rougeaux was the chief scientific officer, but not sure if he is still an active researcher there

https://seeingmachines.com/staff/sebastien-rougeaux/

Tim is still working in an consulting role, my guess, but has a immense role in guiding the company tech roadmap.

Its actually a wonder why these ppl have managed to stay in australia, and not jump in the AI bandwagon and transition to some lucrative position in US, given the AI bubble.

****logation process is currently underway with four more commercial vehicle oems

do you really think someone will spend effort for ****logation without having a contract. @usersteve you dont go to ****logation without a volume guarantee.

@UserSteve its been known for some time now, the price range avg is thereabouts, depends on volume.

PMG did also let it slip in a investor presentation, Seeing machines also charges for installation, but in this case as it is factory fit might not have added cost in upselling or installation.

Dirty secret which has been acknowledged by SEE after Gen3 is that Gen2 gave a close to 10 percent margin. High 30s on low volume is my understanding and for facrory fit which has no overhead for upselling and installation higher

4000 units per year does not sound like much. really!! @UserSteve

thats 4 million usd in recurring revenue atleast, 2 million plus in profit. Not counting the monitoring if they get some percentage of that.

Was quietly watching from the sidelines as Seeing Baxter and friends took the stage last couple of months. If you cannot figure out that PMG and Martin would like to finish off the year end report, before announcing further contracts, well ...

Multiple contracts dont materialize the day after results, its been thought out carefully :)

@MrBB, quite right. Imagine the frustration of a market analyst when companies dont allow you to look into the tech and the numbers. I feel his lean towards SEE as the market leader is based on the access he was granted into the SEE tech, roadmap and the numbers KPIs. The obfuscation that SmartEye has mastered over last decade will not endear them to any market analyst like CB.

The alcohol based impairment detection plays so well into the SmartEye strategy. There is no way to validate this product, you really need drunk drivers and that is illegal everywhere. So SmartEye will soon be the king of driver impairment detection.

When SmartEye declared they have can detect alcohol based impairment, it was quite astonishing, no white paper, no data. No conferences where anyone could look into the claims. At least SEE put out some stats, did some presentation, but i still expect a white paper from them.

The game is DMS for GSR July 2026. Post that we can talk about the interior sensing market. As Martin K from Smarteye noted in the presentation, interior sensing is way behind in rollout, obviously because it is not mandatory and OEMs want to save every penny and delay as much as possible. Child / Pet detection can be done by cheap radar.

Sure luxury and differentiated models will carry interior sensing, VW carries interior sensing too in the Magna mirror placement, which SEE has never publicized, other than to mention we have 50 plus features with VW.

Integrating interior sensing is not the same as integrating DMS in a chip vendor like Qualcomm. Interior sensing does not have the same processing and bandwidth issues.

There are two separate contracts with BWM

1. DMS which covers all models targeted for GSR - this is what SEE has won. the high volume mandatory DMS possibly in the instrument cluster

2. Interior Sensing, which might be a smaller subset within the BMW, using Tobii SCDO platform

I dont know how many models will carry the SCDO interior sensing, but all models will carry the DMS from SEE.

Impossible again to figure out what is the aftermarket AIS portion and what is the auto royalties.

going by Gen3 experience of SEE, SmartEye could be bleeding cash on AIS production / installation and failure rates

Thanks a lot @Brockwl, for trying to explain this. Its not very clear to me either.

As far as the average unit price of $7.70 a unit, i must point out that program to program this varies a lot. When the program uses the whole chip solution as in Xilinx chip in Ford bluecruise the Unit price is close to 20 dollars. In case of feature low programs only for DMS GSR this will be in the low end. The VW program is interesting as it is a DMS + interior monitoring with a rich set of features.

BMW is not feature light either but not as heavy as VW.

As we go into the production rampup, i expect the per unit ASP to hold steady, the discount as volumes increases might get balanced with feature rich programs like VW.

My guess is all the Stellantis programs carry a minimum guarantee and have the lowest set of features.

@bonzoful iseems to me a strong possibility that Magna will exercise the option to get equity at 11 pence. Oct 2026 when the note matures, the share price may be north of 11 pence if the GSR rampup is successfull

Yeah I have been buying too last few months.

The simple reason is there are four major DMS/ OMS suppliers accounting for 85-90 % market.

1. Tobii - 75k last quarter, one OEM and confirmed in the webcast does not have more programs going to production

2. Gentex - confirmed in their presentations this quarter will not see any substantial contribution till 2027 end

That leaves SEE and SmartEye. it simple maths, hedge your bets if you must but SEE and SmartEye will account for more than 80 percent of light vehicle DMS

Magna in their recent quarter results pegs the European light vehicle production to be 16 million this year. This is not a figure arrived lightly, in fact Magna guides to the market based on its expected light vehicle forecast. check out the table for light vehicle production

https://www.magna.com/docs/default-source/financial-disclosures/2025/q2/q2-2025-report.pdf?sfvrsn=da565ef5_11

So SEE + SmartEye will account for 14 million units at least in Europe. With VW, BMW Merc, Audi(possibly dual sourcing), Renault, Citronen etc i cant see how we make less than 50 percent of that.

my base case is 8 million units for SEE for DMS, 1-3 million for OMS per year

Bull case is 11 million units for SEE

SEE + SmartEye could cross 20 million units worldwide. Note out of the 360k ish few quarters back, 100k was outside Europe for SEE

i have been circumspect with guardian, its lumpy and depends on one of contracts, very hard supply chain logistics. Hopefully they can leverage Mitsubishi for a better management of the system.

Irrespective i see this as a unique investing opportunity

Tobii reported 75k units for the quarter, with no further customers . So coming two years does not look they will be able to have a higher growth here. The current program is supposed to ramp-up but with just one OEM and for interior sensing they are essentially missing the volumes that will come from 2026 GSR.

Gentex ER call they were very silent on DMS, when asked said it will be 2027 when any significant contribution comes from driver monitoring.

So the inital GSR requirements will be clearly a race between SmartEye and Seeing Machines

I am not concerned either, when a company says unveiling DMS, thats a long way off to production, ask Gentex.

The game to me now is the profitability and cash generation till 2026 July to end of 2028

Keep an eye out for the next Occula NPU.

Going by the interest of Seeing machines in analog in memory compute, i am speculating Occula NPU os going to license encharge AI IMC tech for the next leap in processing bandwidth and power.

https://www.enchargeai.com/technology

Should be one theses

Mitsu does have lot of avenues to market Gen3

https://www.mitsubishicorp.com/us/en/mca/about/affiliates.html