Member Info for PaddyGall

He was the guy who first Tweeted the pictures of the core of HAD005 over 12 months ago.

Could do aandi - but then they would have the issue of dealing with the waste materials at Havieron.
I suppose all those options will be what they will be looking at when it comes to stage 4 for the feasibility study.

ATB - Paddy

Yes corradus - I agree (and he did state TBF) that these values were conservative.
There is both open pit & underground mining as you state but I don't think there is a separate AISC for both disciplines. I think the ore from both is blended together before it is processed so you are correct that the figure is for the overall operation.
I know Telfer's head grade at the moment is 0.7 g/t so even if we only had 1.55 g/t as he allowed it's still over double the head grade. OK we need to allow a factor for the transport from Havieron but he only allowed for a 10% reduction in AISC so even with 1.55 g/t I think it likely it would be a greater reduction than this.

Gold price @ $1240 - that's fair enough I guess as you can only base you calculations on averages over time and not what it may be in the future. I know when Sandeep was asked at one of the presentations last year about the parameters they used when deciding on their takeover of Red Chris confirmed that NCM used $1200 gold as their benchmark.
That may have been revised up as gold was around $1400 then but using $1240 makes sense to me.

Also if the deposit is significantly bigger then they can either mine more per year over the 20 year period or stretch the term of the NPV return out.

I'm guessing they will use a selective method to get at the high grade zones initially so they will be able to blend it with the lower grade ore from Telfer which gives them the throughput for the mill. At the same time they will probably be looking to develop the block cave infrastructure and then they can change to bulk mining at Havieron when needed to maintain the mill throughput when all the economic ore at Telfer has been completely exhausted.

That's my guess anyway.

Remember, Newcrest can extract an ounce of gold from 1.2 g/t ore at Cadia for an AISC of less than $150. That's over 25 tons of material they have to process to extract an ounce and they can do that for less than $150.
I don't think the AISC at Telfer will get to that level but even if they halve it from the current $1200 to $600 by putting the higher grade from Havieron through it then it is going to become a cash cow again for Newcrest, Sandeep will be the white knight and everybody will be happy. This should be a win-win for all parties.

zoros,
Tier 1 - is not about purely grade - here's a link to a presentation by Newcrest. If you look at page 57 you can see the criteria that Newcrest use to define a Tier 1 asset.

https://www.newcrest.com/sites/default/files/2020-02/200224_BMO%20Conference%20-%20Briefing%20Book.pdf

Scale - Potential for > 300 kozpa Au
Mine Life - Potential for > 15 year mine life preferred
Cost position (AISC/oz) - <$800
Value Upside - Significant resource or exploration upside likely

So there are a lot of factors involved in determining a Tier 1 deposit but grade (even though it's desirable) isn't one of them.

ATB - Paddy

Totally mate but I can't see GH playing ball with that unless of course Newcrest are prepared to pay a massive premium.

We are just guessing at the scope and size of Havieron on here, NCM & GGP are probably 12 weeks ahead of where we are now and will still be 6 weeks ahead of us when we get the report. GH will be pulling out all the stops to get the best possible deal for all shareholders IMO.

ATB - Paddy

Yes you are right Joe, but if GGP know that NCM are going to complete their farm-in commitments completely then it would make no sense to deal now as the deposit will surely only grow between now and the end of stage 4.#

Bigger deposit - means bigger 5% @ fair market value.

Hi Droverman,
Sorry - I was at work yesterday and didn't feel like reading through all the posts last night so I missed a big chunk of yesterdays.

I did notice that on the image from 5 days ago and commented on it then and it's even more pronounced on yesterdays image. My initial thoughts were they could be clearing more areas for more drilling in the future at those locations. I can't think of any other reason for them to flatten out areas there.

ATB - Paddy

Kevin - they are planning at the moment to put the exploration decline in, this will in all probability become the main decline once they start mining IMO.
This will be a mine, it's not just me saying that, I'm speaking to Aussie geos & brokers and they are of the same opinion. It's just a question of the size of the deposit and how they propose to mine it initially to get the ore to Telfer asap.

There are some people who are saying Newcrest are our only option and they may string us out and wait for the SP to get depressed before looking at a take-over, what those people seem to forget is that Newcrest don't have that luxury. They can't sit on this for 3/4 years - they NEED this. Not only for Telfer, but they are suffering issues at most of their other locations also.
IMO - they will be shouting about Havieron from the rooftops again this week - why would they change course now?

ATB - Paddy

Some of you will have seen this before - but here it is again for those that haven't.

Newcrest have been bullish on Havieron ever since they started the drilling almost a year ago but those of us who have been following the story all noticed that the language seemed to change in the quarterly report at the end of January and again in the last interims in March.
I don't think it's any coincidence that this happened around the time they would have been seeing the first cores from the drilling in the SW corner. I have done a history of the drilling with a timeline of the drill rigs up to the 21st March. We could see results from all these holes (or a good percentage of them) in this quarterly report.

https://mega.nz/file/VhoGEIrD#-Jy3NqgzYc1bxmSWHuSchdOg_QeXyzp5FHf-SxtnvRs

We could have a good indication of why they changed their language at that point from the only result we have from that area to date.

HAD042: 124m @ 3.9g/t Au, 0.21% Cu from 734m, including
• 17.3m @ 19g/t Au, 0.62% Cu from 790.7m
but these results were from the high grade breccia and not the sulphide zone where we had seen the high grade up to now.

If HAD043 and all the other drilling that has been concentrated in that area proves the continuity of this high grade into the breccia then it would make sense why Sandeep & Co have been getting so animated in their words.

See this Twitter for a podcast with Mike Nossal from Newcrest on the morning that the HAD042 results were released - he seems a little more reserved than Sandeep but you can tell he's excited about what they have found. Don't forget NCM released only the top of HAD042 but they will have already known at that point the results from multiple other holes in that area (from the onsite scanning tech) so they wouldn't make a song & dance about it if the others were rubbish.

https://twitter.com/paddygall1/status/1238808630717276160?s=20

So keep an eye out for the bottom of HAD042, multiple results from HAD043 and whatever other holes are reported from that sector. I have a feeling we won't be disappointed.

ATB - Paddy

Kevin the 30th is the date for the quarterly and I agree that won't change but the exploration report is a separate report and I've 'heard' that NCM have in the past released the exploration report earlier than the quarterly.

ATB Paddy

Jaysus - just got in from work and thought I'd catch up with the usual 20-30 posts on a Saturday - I'm gonna be reading for a long time. Great to see the interest back in the board.

Shame about the satellite image this morning. ATB - Paddy

Well guys - mother nature is not playing ball today.

Big fluffy clouds right over the top of Havieron. At least it might give the workers a bit of respite from the sun.

https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?lat=-21.72119&lng=122.64228&zoom=13&time=2020-04-25&preset=2_FALSE_COLOR&datasource=Sentinel-2%20L1C

ATB Paddy

Well campers - that was a fun week.
New Satellite image out in the morning and maximum of 3 trading days until results.
Enjoy the weather - ATB Paddy

Agreed Jerry - we're not relying on 'pure' chance here. While I agree it's still a degree of speculation hopefully we will be moving to the next level where GGP will be seen as an invest-able asset.
Cheers - Paddy

l-a, they can't understate the results, the assays come from an independent lab in Perth.
GGP & NCM have a joint technical committee during the farm-in so one would assume they have visibility of all the drilling and core results as the come in in real time also.
ATB - Paddy

Sentinel 2 satellite update to look forward to in the morning also,
Hopefully we can see what the grafters have been up to in the sun while we've all been staring at screens watching the SP trajectory.
GLA - Paddy

Not a chance of that happening IMO mate. Up to now Sandeep has been cheering Havieron from the rooftops - if the results are as good as the market send to think then I'd expect more of the same.
Newcrest need this as much as we do

No worries UR - I've got mine and the date is entered in the calendar.
GLA - Paddy

Found this post by scalper on Hotcopper this morning - could be an interesting listen.

This could be interesting for the Technically minded

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