Member Info for 99icecream

If its signed in China then the honour will probably go to the Minister of Mines cousin Denis Sassou-Nguesso. IMHO to sign in China would be their strong preference.

Maybe be just profit taking. Anyone who bought back in April 2024 when these were 0.5p, might be tempted to sell a few!

If the price gets to 10 x my average cost I would sell 10% or more, and keep the remainder.

There it is. The price dropped yesterday lunchtime from 2.10p/2.40p to 2.00p/2.10p. - Clearly something happened - it turns out someone sold 5+ million shares at 2.00p at 12:40 yesterday .

I have no idea where this will trade, but a couple of numbers that you might find to be a useful reference can be found in the KP2 RNS of 27/6/2022 "Kola Project Optimisation Study Outcomes".

NPV(10) (based on $ 300/t Potash) = $ 899

Which implies a NPV/Share today of 15.7p (Unrisked)

I would suggest this is an absolute minimum value as the project price guarantee reduces risk substantially, so NPV(8) or even NPV(6) might be justified.

EBITDA (based on $ 300/t Potash) = $ 419

Which implies a EBITDA/Share of 7.3p

Once the construction is complete (in about 4 years time) and the Potash is sold, a valuation of EBITDA x 8 = 58.4p / share might be justified.

Note that the 15.7p (NPV value) and the 58.4p (EBIDTA value) would not include an improvements in the project from the current PowerChina/SEPCO review.

The two trades with a total of 128,000 shares (14:07:55) were buy trades in Johannesburg at ZAR 0.45 (equiv GBX 1.92222)

Extrader - You might recall that the original harbour project at Pointe-Indienne (located approximately 8 km to the north of exist port at Pointe-Noire), was to be built by China Road and Bridge Corporation (which merged with China Harbour Engineering in 2005).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Road_and_Bridge_Corporation

A brief description is here: http://www.halcrowsea.com/Projects/152928980272.html

The next step is not just the signing of the EPC contract, but also the reveal of the changes and improvements made by PowerChina. In addition we will get new Broker estimates of the value KP2 based upon the new information. IMHO the changes made by PowerChina will positively impact the valuation and the extra $10 million of costs and 1 year plus delay will be worthwhile.

Don't forget that (unlike SEPCO, KP2 and Summit) PowerChina has long and current experience of Potash mining in Laos.

https://en.powerchina.cn/2022-10/10/c_818331.htm

The Risked NAV usually corresponds to a brokers Target Price (i.e. they are considered to be cheap below the target).

The Unrisked NAV corresponds to the value if everything works out OK.

Here the Risked NAV / Unrisked NAV = about 25%, which means they think one chance in four (is a very cautious estimate) of the probability of everything working out OK

The 3 trades at 9:05 am - in total 1.1 Million are probably buys (the price was 2.00 / 2.20 at 9:00am).

The 2 trades near 10:00 am - In total 1.2 Million are probably sells (the price was 2.20 / 2.30 at 10:01am).

The price is moving up in Johannesburg.

The GM is about voting to issue the conditional shares in the fund raise. It has no bearing on any deals being signed.

A late reported trade from Tuesday.

3 million shares, the dog wakes !

In practice it is not possible for a UK listed to enforce the rules on disclosure anyway as holders can hide their identity in nominee accounts.

14.4 million block sale of shares mystery - ZIOC have about 650 m shares. If you have 3% or more (about 19m shares) you should notify ZIOC. Most investors are reluctant to exceed the 3% limit as they prefer to remain private. In practice it is not possible for a UK listed to enforce the rules on disclosure anyway.

(2) 23 November 2022 increased to $ 1.8m, maturity extended to Dec 2023 !

I suggest that the loan was a fundamental part of the reorganisation that was announced 23 Nov 2022. Essentially the key thing here was a need to get the project plan and project economics reconfirmed, at a time when ZIOC had limited cash to fund the work. This subsequently led to the partnership (Chinese EPC partnership) announced 3 July 2023.

Yep, a binary bet !

Price moving up in Johannesburg (recently 1. 86 Bid / 1.90 Offer) + 10%.

The Proactive website states that it's from 2 weeks and 3 days ago. Implies 1st July.

Catbert - Over 4,000 km by truck ! (from Zanaga to the Simandou Railhead).