Member Info for 99icecream

"The dispute news against the Morocco government spread fast."

The attachment is not evidence of that. investgate.co.uk carry all of the RNS announcements.

So far I have seen nothing in the Moroccan press regarding the dispute.

The 2.2Billion is the NPV8 estimate from the RNS 1st February 2024. It is the obvious number to use. I speculated that this would be the number on here on 31/10/24 @ 12:40.

AJ27 - I think you have this backwards. Currently water for the coastal towns, comes from inland. The plan is to have the the coastal towns supplied by desalination plants, thus leaving the inland water for the inland areas. This will result in two areas for investment. The desalination plants in the coastal areas and some additional bore holes inland and short pipelines to move water inland to cover any remaining shortage.

https://www.eib.org/en/stories/morocco-water-scarcity

RLL93 - This is currently just a notice of intention to take this to the ICSID. IMHO - The highest probability is that the Moroccan government will intervene with the CRI and the ESIA will be issued. There is a new Minister, Karim Zidane and sorting this will probably be in his bailiwick.

Testpack3 - OCP are of course a large and profitable producer of fertiliser in Morocco. They will also become the major force in desalination, as they have the capital to do so. They will be paid for water they supply and this will become a major (and profitable part) of their business. There are also synergies with their existing business.

Testpack3 - You should check out the reason for the OCP pipeline. The pipeline goes from the coast to Khouribga where they have their largest Phosphate mine (70% of OCP's output). Currently OCP use massive amounts of the local water to transport their Phosphate to the coast via a Slurry pipeline. They use the water to produce a suspension of the Phosphate which travels under gravity via a pipeline. This is obviously a very wasteful way to use water from the Khouribga area and is unsustainable. Hence the massive investment required to replace the lost water with pumped desalinated water.

The comparison with how EML will use water in Khemessit (and the amount required per tonne of product) could not be more stark.

Countries sign up to the ICSID to attract foreign investment and to assure foreign companies that they will be treated fairly. Domestic companies cannot use the ICSID system. The state can impose restrictions on environmental grounds, but these must be reasonable. So they would need to be the same for OCP and EML. In the case of Rockhopper, they were granted a licence to explore for hydrocarbons off Italy. When it came to production Italy decided not to award a licence and Rockhopper appealed to the ICSID and won compensation.

You might have a point if they were to turn down OCP on environmental grounds. Furthermore, that would not stop them having to pay compensation (see for example Rockhopper's case against Italy).

SloppyG -

The NPV was recently estimated at $2.2 Billion which implies about 38p. If EML end up going down the ICSID route then they will get every penny (less Burford's considerable fees) - no doubt OCP (Govt owned) would foot the bill from their considerable resources. However, I very much doubt that will be the outcome as said previously.

The market - at least this corner of the AIM market does not work in the logical way you might imply. Many of the few who own this share (at higher prices) would not buy more under any circumstances. The few that might buy generally don't have sufficient information to give them confidence. Others will buy, but only on good news. Present values and probabilities don't come into it.

SloppyG - There may be skulduggery even corruption, but this can only delay the project. The Government knows this and will need to sort this situation out before it gets expensive for them.

Morocco is a member of the International Center for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID) and signed its convention in June 1967. Morocco is a party to the New York Convention of 1958 on the Recognition and Enforcement of Foreign Arbitral Awards. Law No. 08-05 provides for enforcement of awards made under these conventions.

If they still intend to move KP2 to a main market listing, they would want this to happen soon after the financing is done. (IMHO)

I suspect the financing effort won't begin in earnest until the new year.

That might be simply that 6 weeks would be Xmas / New Year.

Assuming all goes to plan with a signing on 19th November, the key date for your diary is the 20th November. This will be when we get the details of the EPC and various brokers will publish their opinions on valuation. Until then trading will be thin as most have little idea how good this could be.

Because it is listed on ASX which requires quarterly reports within one month of quarter end.

Mr Jinx. - How did you buy at 0.29p? When the s.p was 0.28, the spread to buy was in the 30s.

You could ask how did someone buy 1m @ 0.40 today when the spread was 0.35 - 0.45 ?

Answer, you leave an order to buy 1m @ 0.40 earlier (when the buying price was higher) and the dealers match your order with sells at 0.366p.

Mr Jinx - Really? I bought 500k at 0.3p and 500k at 0.297p - I have no problem believing that other did a bit better !

Thanks for your full answer.

So it could look as though the ESIA decision was made after Jazouli was told he would be replaced ?

Looks like Dofmeister has answered my question many thanks for this.