Member Info for 99icecream

Indeed so, Jimmy has organised a deal that he likes (otherwise why sign the undertaking). However, the Non-Exec Directors have a responsibility in this situation to make sure this is the best deal available, hence the offer period giving the possibility of other bidders coming forward.

Indeed - corresponds to about 1/3 chance the deal fails and CNR price goes back to 18p.

I suspect your bankers won't let you make an offer to buy a company on the basis of money you don't have (even if you hope to have it in time for the payment date).

Most of the "unknowns" today are yesterdays trades.

The real value in CNR is for mining soon. Therefore Calibre or Mako might only bid a fraction of true value (as they have plenty to mine currently). Metals Exploration only need to pay a bit more than Mako or Calibre. JM knowing that Metals Exploration will get a great deal will take shares in Metals Exploration.

I can recommend the filters on here. You can easily see a posters history and if they are primarily interested in handbagging other posters, filter them out.

The brokers have this valued over £2 (NAV based unrisked value) with a target price over 50p (TP risked value). So, the price should slowly climb until mid-2025.

On the wrong stock MrJinx ?

The 3 month period for financing ends in late February 2025. If they are still intending to move the listing to the Main market of the LSE, then the financing will be in 2025 with the signature of the operating contract. Then the listing (and an offer of shares from the key shareholders) can follow on from funding (without an Xmas delay).

Although KP2 continue to mention that part of the money will be a royalty deal, I suspect they mean this in the widest sense and that it will be an off-take deal. I know that SQM and Oman fund had rights to off-take going back to 2016 (see below), and this might also be the preference for the Chinese.

2/9/2016

"Preliminary conditional off-take rights have been granted to Sociedad Quimica and the Oman fund for a minimum of 40% of annual production from the project (20% each)."

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/165652/elemental-minerals-ltd-pulls-in-us50m-for-potash-project-in-congo-70816.html

On the London Stock Exchange Site the Daily Volumes (number of shares) traded are shown as follows:-

15 Nov 9.41 Million

16 Nov 10.82 Million

19 Nov 10.03 Million

20 Nov 27.41 Million

21 Nov 24.76 Million

Look at the KP2 Trades here. Note each trade was reported (late) at the end of the following day.

The severity of the fall in KP2's price was very strange. It looks as if one person / fund was the cause. 11,267,785 shares sold on 20 November (15:34 pm) for 2.85p and another 11,267,785 sold on 21 November (12:01 pm) for 2.25p.

New the end of the day the bid/ask was 62/66 so a fair closing price would have been 64, but someone put in a late sale of £50 worth and the closing price was based on that. Similar things happens on the LSE.

Means nothing that's a trade worth £50 !

I'm not sure that's accurate, there has been more traded on JSE than LSE so far today. And several buys of 500k+ shares.

The price change does not reflect the trades done today that we know about. Expect we might see one of those late reported trades (from just before 4pm today) reported tomorrow ?

OK that number relates a the DX project, not Kola and from memory it does not include everything (e.g. shipping). The number from the RNS 27 June 2022 for Kola was 105.90 CFR Brazil. I'd love to know what the current number is.

The latest World Bank price (for 31 October 2024) is $287.13 CFR Brazil.

Would be good to know where you get the $114 from (not the RNS as far as I can see).

A few comments. We have one piece of the puzzle (the construction cost), asap we want to know the new estimates of operating costs and the plan for what comes next (which I guess will be an expansion in size of this project at a later date).

Perhaps the new operating costs estimate will follow the decision on PowerChina's offer to be the operator.

Compared to 27 June 2022.

Construction time has lengthened slightly to 43 months (from) 40 months.

Construction costs have increased from US$ 1.83 billion to US$ 1.929 billion (up about 5.5%). However during this period US inflation has been about 8.8%, so in real terms this is actually about 3.5% cheaper.

Its impossible to see where the cost changes have taken place as the breakdown is presented in a different way.

I'm waiting for the brokers comments on this RNS, in particular what discount rate they will choose to use in the financial models (due to the de risking of the construction cost element).

I'm not too surprised by the departure of some of the shorter term investors. I suspect that those who like this project will wait until the price settles, before buying, as there should be a lot more news to come out (operating contract, financing, and possible move to main market) prior to the long wait during construction.

The ones marked UT are the result of an auction not buying / selling from the market makers. There various auctions available during the trading day (and at the start and end). These enable the big buyers / sellers to get better prices (dealing with each other nearer mid-market. They are not classified as a buy or sell because they are both (there are two sides to the deal) . The market makers can participate in these auctions if they wish.

Other deals are reported late, which is allowed for large deals. When they are reported late its had to know if they are buys or sells as the (bid / ask) prices in the market may have changed. So they are not classified as buys or sells. If you look back at what was trading at the time of the deal its usually obvious if its a buy or a sell.