Member Info for 99icecream

There are periodic auctions during the day (currently 4 for most aim stocks). Often these are ignored by the market, but when stocks are illiquid they may be used (as was the case yesterday on KP2).

08:50 – 09:00 (First Intra-Day Auction)

10:50 – 11:00 (Second Intra-Day Auction)

13:50 – 14:00 (Third Intra-Day Auction)

16:30 – 16:35 (Closing Auction)

T hats more like it - a £46 k buy trade !

Just out of interest, do you have any idea what price these shorts positions were taken out - or are you just assuming that money was lost on them ?

In theory the NPV per share is what the share is worth. This assumes that you have used valid assumptions in the first place. In practice the market price might be a bit lower depending on how much "the market" trusts the number.

There is reason to believe that the NPV they come up with might be better than the 15.7p. Particularly if KP2 intends to move the listing to the main market (to enable the cornerstone investors to cash in on a part of their investment). For example they can include assumptions about what comes after this project. I would expect this to be an increase to the project size (e.g. after say 5 years of production).

The $899 and $419 are in millions of US$.

Rekash - a repeat of my post from the end of August.

I have no idea where this will trade, but a couple of numbers that you might find to be a useful reference can be found in the KP2 RNS of 27/6/2022 "Kola Project Optimisation Study Outcomes".

NPV(10) (based on $ 300/t Potash) = $ 899

Which implies a NPV/Share today of 15.7p (Unrisked)

I would suggest this is an absolute minimum value as the project price guarantee reduces risk substantially, so NPV(8) or even NPV(6) might be justified.

EBITDA (based on $ 300/t Potash) = $ 419

Which implies a EBITDA/Share of 7.3p

Once the construction is complete (in about 4 years time) and the Potash is sold, a valuation of EBITDA x 8 = 58.4p / share might be justified.

Note that the 15.7p (NPV value) and the 58.4p (EBIDTA value) would not include an improvements in the project from the current PowerChina/SEPCO review.

Potentially very good news for Iron Ore and ZIOC. Iron Ore Futures for October 2024 and after up 5 dollars approx today.

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-unveils-broad-stimulus-measures-revive-economy-2024-09-24/

Johannesburg SE shut today (Heritage Day)

JSE continues to drift upwards and upwards

Average volume (2.4m shares) recently 2.75p bid / 2.88p offer in SA (0.64 / 0.67 ZAR)

A single (buy) trade of 1.36 million (at ZAR62) midday, seems to be what has caused the rise.

JSE continues to drift upwards

Tiny volume (900k shares) but, 2.54p bid / 2.58p offer in SA (0.59 / 0.60 ZAR)

Correction: - Tiny volume but, 2.46p bid / 2.50p offer in SA (0.57 / 0.58 ZAR)

Tiny volume but, 1.46p bid / 1.50p offer in SA (0.57 / 0.58 ZAR)

My point is the whole EML EIA proposal depends on having a supply of DAP. Why would the locals issue the EIA before EML can prove it will have the DAP required ? Are we waiting for a deal between OCP and EML ?

OCP would also need an EIA, and would need to show where and how much water they would need.

IMHO !

KMP requires DAP (Diammonium Phosphate).

OCP is the only producer of DAP in Morocco.

OCP will also need KMP in Khemmisset.

A deal between OCP and EML is inevitable (if KMP works).

OCP are also mining Potash in Khemisset, and will also need (Grey) water. So this pipeline might have little relevance to Emmerson ?

President of the Republic of the Congo Denis Sassou Nguesso arrived in Beijing

https://english.news.cn/20240903/a4049d7e291740669bfe29bd93a879b7/c.html

The "forum" is 3 days (September 4 to 6). Some leaders met Xi on Monday and Tuesday.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/09/03/china-africa-forum-belt-road/

No doubt - photos with Xi also !

I would suggest that there is more prestige with the deal being signed in China. Whoever signs on the Chinese side will be far more senior. The narrative in the Congo press will be about how the deal has been won by Congo, how the presence of Nguesso / Oba has made the difference in winning the deal etc., how many jobs will be created in Congo etc.