Member Info for 99icecream

Whereisallmemoney - Indeed so, apologies. I was wanting to check if this was the guy (Mohcine Jazouli) was the Chairman of the CRUI investment board.

Whereisallthemoney. Do you mean the replacement of Mohcine Jazouli by Karim Zidane

at the Ministry of Investment, Convergence, and the Evaluation of Public Policies (MICEPP) ?

A Chinese deal is a very interesting possibility. They desperately want the Gold (apparently) and they won't be deterred by risk (or sanctions).

https://moneyweek.com/investments/commodities/gold/603131/how-much-gold-does-china-own

IMHO - Given the likely cost of setting the compensation case (Circa $2.2 Billion, NPV8 - RNS 01 02 2024), I doubt Morocco will want to go that route, and will work with the Khemisset authorities to resolve the situation.

For the sake of accuracy. The legal route would not cost EML anything. Burford (et al.) work for a percentage of the settlement. Burford (et al.) will only take on cases where they are confident of the result.

It seems obvious that (absent a last minute deal), this will end up at the ICSID where EML would have a very strong case (i.e. if OCP are granted rights to mine then this should be the same for EML). The case would be against the Kingdom of Morocco, so ultimately EML will need to talk to central government to see what they want to do, before appointing Burford Capital (or equivalent) to act for them (on a no fee basis).

https://menas.co.uk/blog/moroccos-partial-victory-in-the-samir-refinery-case

If you look at Calibre's figures, it will give you a good idea of what is possible. Over the last 10 quarters (1/1/2022 to 30/6/2024) they earn a 43.7% of revenues after direct costs, and 30.4% of revenues after direct costs and depreciation in Nicaragua. The comparative figures for their US operations are 6.8% and 4.8%.

Seingred - I certainly would not be disappointed if Condor sell for double the current price later this year - I know about the time value of money. However if you buy this share you need to be prepared for a longer, but ultimately more rewarding wait (IMHO).

My point is that +100% from here will not get JM sufficiently excited, even +400% is probably not enough. The good news is that with Gold prices this high, there are several Gold miners making huge profits and they will look to reinvest. However, given the cap ex requirements etc. the best deal might be had by keeping an equity stake. This could be swapping Condor shares for New Miner shares, or a taking a smaller cash payment now plus a royalty on production.

FWIW - I have bought here recently and consider these shares to be stunning value. Having said that they are controlled by one individual who does not need to sell and who is bullish on the gold price. IMHO you need to regard this as a long term bet (on the gold price) - we could easily still be here in a couple of years. Further, the probability is that to get the best price we might receive shares (in a gold miner) rather than cash.

FYI - the rule is "An AIM company must issue notification without delay of any new developments which are not public knowledge which, if made public, would be likely to lead to a significant movement in the price of is AIM securities."

There are several reasons why a further RNS might not be required at this time:-

1/ They don't yet have clarification of adverse findings, i.e. in written form.

2/ A further RNS is not required if would not be expected to move the share price substantially (i.e. the first price reaction is thought to be sufficient). Note that "substantially" is not defined and we are talking about expectations.

3/ A further RNS is not required at this point if the outcome is uncertain because it is the subject of negotiation.

Its what they call an Agency Cross

"a trade by which a member firm acting as an agent matches the buy and sell orders of two or more non-members at the same price and on the same terms"

There will be a few of these currently as individuals sell positions in dealing accounts and buy them back in SIPP or ISA accounts in order to realise a capital gain (or loss) prior to the budget.

Engine drivers and oily rags !

For my benefit, could you be clear which company you mean ?

"I have communicated with the company...... "

The Navitas presentation of July does have FID in 2024. Which is probably why Zeus in 12 July 2024 stated

"FID could be in 2024, with first oil in 2026."

By 26 September 2024 they had changed their view to:

"Progress towards Sea Lion FID continues ............ FID could be in 2025, with first oil in 2026."

I guess I'm missing something, but isn't it the case that Navitas will not commit to the development of Sea Lion until their Shenandoah oil field is completed. As Shenandoah has been delayed until Q2 2025, the knock effect on Sea lion is obvious and should already be anticipated by investors.

China really want the Potash. But if they wanted to buy Kore surely they would have done so a long time ago ?

https://academic.oup.com/book/56144?login=false

Personally I doubt your theory. Lots of things could cause the delay, e.g:

They may be sorting the management deal and/or the financing before the big sign-off.

The Congo Govt is broke at the moment. They are not paying for rubbish collection (which is left on the streets) and has other measures to save money. They may be looking for a loan from China before signing. (see Extrader on the ZIOC page).

Obviously near the coast you would have access to sea water, which would be ideal for KMP (without the need for desalination).

If you were to consider trucking. Isn't the better option to truck the Sylvinite and Carnallite to the docks near Jorf Lasfer where Phosphate and Ammonia (from OCP) and water will be available, and do the KMP there ?