Member Info for 1pencil

9.19% Oct-22
7.49% Sep-22
7.47% Aug-22
6.98% Jul-22
6.42% Jun-22
6.80% May-22
6.76% Apr-22
6.94% Mar-22
7.61% Feb-22
8.39% Jan-22

8.72% Dec-21
7.85% Nov-21
6.19% Oct-21
6.54% Sep-21
2.71% Aug-21
1.92% Jul-21

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-11377155/Myprotein-launched-Black-Friday-SALE-47-including-bestsellers.html

One of the biggest problems facing any investor is how to evaluate media reporting v what is actually happening, as posted below CNBC have printed conflicting articles within 24 hours following the recent China reshuffle - Chinese sites are similar alternating on a weekly basis, so how best to know what's actually going on?

Yes, it a bit of a cliché to say 'follow the money' but in this case I feel it has merit.

If you look at the underlying stories (not headlines) you can see it pretty much BAU, for example Lotus have just set up manufacturing, Chinese tech giants’ push into U.S and so on, too many examples to link each one

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/31/bytedance-pinduoduo-launch-overseas-e-commerce-sites-in-challenge-to-amazon.html

Its also worth reading some of the independent think tanks which break everything down into common sense non-sensationalised points, Teneo have released a highly detailed report which is definitely worth a read for any investor.

JP Morgan seem to be sticking with their bullish long term call (at least for the moment)

JPMorgan’s wealth chief Erdoes backs China markets after stock rout as best opportunity to emerge when doubters flee

https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/3197697/jpmorgans-wealth-chief-erdoes-backs-china-markets-after-stock-rout-best-opportunity-emerge-when

Little nit off topic but worth a read for some perspective, bear in mind the captive audience it enjoys along with a huge moat from foreign competition.

Very tempted on this one;

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4550112-alibaba-time-to-be-greedy

Yup, agree, its hard to know what the catalyst is, trackers selling as global indices fall high on the list though.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/28/asia-markets-stocks-bank-of-japan-interest-rates-currencies.html

Being company specific, I don't think Hutchmed is doing that bad - it was only a couple of months ago we were celebrating FRESCO-2 meeting end point attracting renewed partner interest.

Since my last post on shareholders selling, that day or next saw M & G reducing by a small percentage amount, as with other stocks there is likely to be forced sellers as redemptions come in.

Cheers

Hutchmed is really the only Chinese biotech that I have followed, this probably stemmed from Mark Slaters glowing review many (many) years ago

The Hang Seng, Loncar China BioPharma ETF and Global X MSCI China Health Care ETF (CHIH) are all at multi year lows or all time lows, has anything faired any better, Jatw you mentioned other biotech's ?

Last entry is for a bunch of share awards but the remaining holders seem fairly static?

https://sc.hkexnews.hk/gb/di.hkex.com.hk/di/NSAllFormList.aspx?sa2=an&sid=344192&corpn=HUTCHMED+(China)+Ltd.&sd=26/10/2021&ed=26/10/2022&cid=0&sa1=cl&scsd=26%2f10%2f2021&sced=26%2f10%2f2022&sc=13&src=MAIN&lang=EN&g_lang=en&

I don't see any signs of major holders selling so this could be the bears pushing it down, as mentioned in previous posts the short interest was unusually high for such a limited free float.

Alibaba has some of Americas largest 'whale' investors including Charlie Munger, worth listening to some of the vlogs on the subject of China.

> Global X MSCI China Health Care ETF (CHIH) < almost identical chart to HCM

Hutchmed however is not affected by the same cloud as say Alibaba, these stocks have been subject to government intervention which caused big drops.

A possible (if there is one) upside is further cooperation with SEC inspections which have been ongoing for several weeks now - as we know from other press releases state controlled companies have already started to de-list leaving the rump hopefully able to continue being listed.

It would be a huge blow to NASDAQ as an exchange losing $1.2 trillion of listings.

No worries, very hard to know what is going on, look at these two headlines less than a day apart

China’s leadership reshuffle puts greater weight on relations with the U.S.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/23/chinas-leadership-reshuffle-puts-greater-weight-on-relations-with-the-us-.html

U.S.-listed Chinese stocks drop 20% after Beijing’s power reshuffle makes the market ‘uninvestable’

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/24/us-listed-chinese-stocks-drop-after-beijings-power-reshuffle-makes-the-market-uninvestable.html

https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/3197041/chinas-leadership-reshuffle-stuns-investors-markets-see-risks-policy-mistakes-shocks-economy?module=lead_hero_story&pgtype=homepage

Unless the company (or their partner) mentions it directly then there is no way of knowing - for example you could have someone like Kao use all of Ingenuity services across dozens of brands but choose their own shop front, if this were the case it would slip under the radar, see earlier post on Ingenuity template.

It can work in reverse too, big brand name only using Ingenuity shop front without the fulfilment and other services.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/23/chinas-leadership-reshuffle-puts-greater-weight-on-relations-with-the-us-.html

Coldspy, interesting development, Telegraph seemed to have this before the official release ?

Brands

Disney and Honda from memory but would also consider Kao .. Iceland ?

These are links that I have book marked but unable to read fully at the time.

My own research tends to focus on the well known brands here for partnership news, Coca Cola, Iceland and so on, Kao however is a conglomerate in its own right established in 1887 with over 30,000 employees.

The Molton Brown sites all have that familiar layout so often used by Ingenuity and from Arjun's comments above fulfilment is supported too. Other sites from Kao are a bit more ad hoc, so probably not onboard.

Plenty of celebrations with new starts joining the Ingenuity team.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjamin-jones-31a7a5168/recent-activity/

THG Ingenuity signed a five deal with Kao sometime last year, here's what Anjun Murari of Molton Brown (division of Kao) had to say one year later;

"Anjun highlighted how crucial it is to pick an experienced partner that can offer guidance through some of these challenges and underscored the effectiveness of working with a partner like THG Ingenuity, that has expertise across the 52 different markets where Molton Brown distributes its products and can help to navigate them with confidence. "

https://www.kao.com/global/en/brands/

https://www.thgingenuity.com/resources/blog/cew-beauty-tech-summit-a-discussion-on-the-beauty-consumer-journey

Hight Streets in my view are unsustainable as evidenced by the increasing number of news stories, if investors can see past short term CAPEX requirements, mid next year onwards should be the halcyon years for THG together with other automated/centralised distribution hubs.

Anyone that hasn't invested in their own automation has no choice but to select a centralised fulfilment partner, a good example would be M & S - there is no option, the high street is too expensive and you cannot just stop still while you build out your own infrastructure.

You may have some half way click and collect locations but broadly speaking the only logical route is online for almost everything, efficiencies in e- bikes, drones and so on will only speed up the process.

On another note inflation, whilst each county has its own measure I find the UN index a smoother average as its global in nature and possibly and advanced indicator.

Food Price Index drops for the sixth consecutive month

https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/

https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6988137242066087936/

Perhaps another sign of China towing the line?

YMTC sends message of compliance after Washington puts China’s largest memory chip maker on watch list

https://www.scmp.com/tech/tech-war/article/3196833/tech-war-ymtc-sends-message-compliance-after-washington-puts-chinas-largest-memory-chip-maker-watch

Now if we take the Goldman position and adjust it to 4.99% their long would not have to be declared under UK rules, however the whooping short of around 4% would causing mush concern amongst investors.

Hope that makes sense, apologies for off topic -