Firering Strategic Minerals: From explorer to producer. Watch the video here.
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I understand that an explorer has risks and I’m happy with that.
What I’m not sure about and don’t understand is that the probability of a successful sale of BR appears close to zero according to the SP, assuming the revenue generation over the next few years supports the current SP.
Typically with various corp actions or pending events an asset price will have 10%, 25%, etc probability of the event taking place.
Why is the ‘assumed’ probability so low?
1. XTR is micro micro cap, so off radar for many investors?
2. Perhaps with expected revenues the supported SP is only 1p for example and not 3.25p
3. I’m missing something significant?
With many reasonable assumptions here on the potential value of Bushranger in recent weeks / months, and having drilled over 30k metres for validation.
I can’t work it out.
4. The market doesnt believe CB's statements re Bushranger due to a number of failed timelines and events in the past - over the last few years on many different projects here.
(I'm not saying the market should or shouldn't believe CB's forward guidance re Bushranger - just giving my theory why sp hasnt moved)
Thats almost what I mean. A zero probability from the market just seems low….too low.
Let’s see.
Yet the market believes the RNS of of another company he's at the driving wheel with. So much so that it jumps over 36% within the hour. How do you justify that.
I think where BR is concerned, there is still only the current JORC and an exploration phase to base toward value. I think it’s quite clear that there is a distinct lack of understanding of porphyry deposits too, from PI’s generally, particularly within uk markets. As most Xtract investors are mainly PI’s then this market still sees it as too speculative at present until the updated and maiden resource statements are released, along with a positive mining study which will be the deal breaker toward a positive rerate.
99% of potential investors have not heard of XTR. Only a small proportion of those with knowledge of XTR will have done the necessary research and some of those will have become bored and wandering away to the next shiny object.
You are also assuming that the current share price is related to the actual trading. If you monitor the individual trades and MM movements on level 2, you can see that the volume is minimal most days and its not unusual for the MMs take it down even on days with more buying than selling. XTR is in a holding pattern waiting for news with those in the know already taken their positions. The share price will move up once there is volume and that volume will only appear on significant news and a new buzz around the company.
“The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.” Warren Buffett
"Yet the market believes the RNS of of another company he's at the driving wheel with. So much so that it jumps over 36% within the hour. How do you justify that".
Well the RNS from the other company (AFP) detailed an update provided by a credible partner. CB also then went on with Sunday Roast and suggested this £4m market cap company could potentially be worth hundreds of millions and in a relatively short time frame. So a 36% movement at £4m not actually that big. I do of course take everything CB says with a pinch of salt, but the update from First Quantum looks very promising indeed, though still very early days.
I must admit I had a little deja vu with the first few minutes of that Midweek takeaway.
I wonder why.
'update from First Quantum looks very promising indeed, though still very early days.' have you got a link for that update?
Wrong chat kidda
Well, its related to Colin Bird, so probably African Pioneer is the best place to go. You are logged in to ADFN so probably best to use the Search facility.
Bird says today on Traders Cafe that the announcement for AFP is perhaps the most significant of his entire career. Similar SP as XTR yet could realistically hit 50p-100p+ if it was to come in and that could happen inside of 12 months.
It seems the next significant too good to miss once in a lifetime opportunity is commonplace in Colin World lol
It was not long ago he said XTR was bargain of the century when the share price was much higher. Also in an interview when the Russian Ukrainian conflict started he stated it would be over in two weeks which I distinctly remember. So I am now concluding he is all hot air which does not help as I have a large holding at a much higher price and really thought he was the real deal
With Colins stocks you need to get in early and get out early. Probably the best way to manage to make a profit
Yep must admit Oliver I thought that was a bold statement for CB to make at the time, but I’m sure it was more wishful thinking than an educated view.
There is a certain irony about being bargain of the century back then, how much more of a bargain does it make it now the share price has drifted down, with odds on that most ‘investors’ are already positioned without decent funds available now, coming up to the silly season to grab the opportunity to average down.
Grrrr..
astute or lucky punters need not reply :-(
Oliversydney, what do you expect CB to say when the company is deep in the modelling, working hard to confirm the size of the resources, possibly having off-the-record discussions with majors but unable to give any hints due to market rules? He has to stay quiet. Anyone who thinks this is because CB has lost faith in his own company or because it’s not worth shouting about is misunderstanding the situation. Or being mischievous.
Look at Caravel Minerals again, which we’ve often used as a benchmark here. Mcap AUS$92m, or about £50m. 5p in XTR terms, fully diluted. That’s for what - 1.4Mt Cu and $1.0bn NPV? So perhaps XTR would move to 5p plus 1-3p for African assets if similar figures were declared? Less any discount for a “CB factor”. As others have said, we just need a formal resource statement and value placed on it to get the next leg up.
Also Caravel are going to seek financing to build a mine, rather than sell, so their share price is significantly discounted on the basis it will be a long time to see value.
Just had a quick look at their annual report:
"The Company raised around $4.7M in a ($3.0M) placement and ($1.7M) rights issue to fund drilling, technical studies and project development activities. The Company continued to enjoy strong support from new and existing shareholders demonstrating confidence in the Company’s copper assets and a clear focus on progressing the project towards development"
"A major milestone was the delivery of a Pre-feasibility Study (PFS) and a maiden Ore Reserve Estimate for the
project in July 2022. The Ore Reserve (JORC 2012) is 583.4Mt at 0.24% copper for 1.42Mt contained copper (at 0.10% cut-off)"
It's you that should be reported Kwakers.
You'll be telling us next the labs are in on the game with falsification of the resource results?
The assets are proven.
There are gold revenues already, which are improving, so self financing soon. There will be significant copper revenues or a sale based on the asset value and improving copper demand.
Horses aren't my thing but good luck to CB if that's what he chooses to do with his hard earned.
What do you spend your Short money on? It's pretty clear you want the stock down, or are bitter for some other reason. Chill out.
kwadoku has gone by many names before but always betrays who he is with his cut-and-paste postings.
He holds a grudge against Colin (just in case that wasn't obvious!) and just wants to bring him and his companies down. He does not care about investors, just getting revenge for whatever he blames Colin for.
kwadoku - You need to get some help... this is not healthy.
This is hilarious, I just looked through Kwackers' previous posts and every single one is defamatory against CB. This guy really has a personal grudge.
Personal Grudge or not, just ignore, however I dont like being at this 3p level, its slightly daunting TBH.
Back to five with a move to 10p would inspire a lot more confidence
Yes Fosters, a trebling of the share price would be lovely. What could help, or hinder this? ...
Q3 results from Manica showing ramp up of revenues, followed by confirmation of operation running at full production. Downside is disappointing Q3 figures and delays to implementing full production. It is a common opinion that the current SP is entirely accounted for by this at the moment with no consideration being given to Bushranger.
As for Bushranger, what might move the price? Will we get publication of MREs/conceptual pit study for Racecourse or Ascot before or after we hear if Anglo American is going to pass on their option or make an offer. If they pass on the buyback deal, thereby allowing XTR to take it to the open market (possibly the preferred outcome) will this be because the MRE outcome is disappointing, and will we be told phase 3 drilling will be on the cards to make it all a bit more attractive? Might XTR downplay the MRE and conceptual pit economics in order to get AA out of the loop?
There are so many uncertainties (current gold income, near future of Copper prices, etc) and strategy directions that could be being considered no wonder we (holders) are where we are.
I'm impatient for further news and at the same time nervous of news, in equal measure.
All very interesting, not sure they would be down playing results to get the AA offer off the table?
My personal view is sell it to AA ASAP take all the uncertainty out of the discussion, for the right "market" price of course