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Looks and sounds like the infamous “Pops” from BZT board to me
“ valuations at 20p or 30p using the "discounted cornford model" are all very well and good, but life isn't like that - there needs to be at least one company actively interested in purchasing xtr for that to come into play”
Agreed Cyber. But that’s like saying an asset is only worth something if a buyer wants it. That’s correct, but I can’t see any reason why we wont have, at least, one major wanting to buy Bushranger so we will have an offer, maybe offers.
As for the possibility of a cheap buy-out -- majors don’t want to buy potential, they want certainty with no risk, so they will wait for a JORC and will be happy to pay a premium for a clearly defined asset.
As others have said, the AA buy-out option just gives them first refusal. A low ball offer can and will be rejected and CB will then be able to open negotiations with others. Its in AAs interest to make a sensible and realistic offer. If they don’t they’ve lost first refusal advantage. And lost the deal.
I’m confident we will get fair market value – which I believe will be an absolute minimum of 20p.
Of course AIMO.
Asitis AKA Spaceman/Dragon Slayer/Queensland winner use to post on this BB years ago and was ultra positive on Xtract and CB. CB could do no wrong in his eyes.
He traded the share but admitted (when posting as Queensland Winner) that he had sold out in the 2p range during the last spike. He got caught out as he expected it to retrace below his sell price, like it had done many times before. He now appears very bitter so spends his time making non sequitur posts with irrelevant or misleading points.
A typical example of this is his comment that we have spent all this money, done all this drilling, but the JORC value has not increased at all. Of course it hasn’t - we havnt had a revised JORC ! Or when he said the buy-out agreement states we have to have 0.45% grades. In the buy-out agreement it stated 0.45% as an example - when referencing 2mt. He clearly knew that but was deliberately being misleading.
Best to ignore his transparent attempts at bashing the company and CB. That said, I have some sympathy for the guy, he must be very stressed knowing he sold out at exactly the wrong time.
As he would say. Oh dear.
Can someone tell ass-itis on the other board that actually the percentage sold of the NPV value is between 5 to 20% from my research, not 1% of that.
Tell him to do his own research and not manipulate others research. Based on the figures I gave 5% would be 95 million and 20% would be 380 million based on an inferred resource.
Obviously I'm no expert and all workings out could be complete tosh.
It's hard to get across without explaining the working out but basically an ounce in an inferred resource is worth 10% of the ounce spot price.
Cyber, I was only using that to get the correct percentage compared to the article.
The valuations in the article were for gold and the value was 37% of the April 2010 gold price for a measured resource.
18% for indicated
10% for inferred
On waking this morning, did you have a strong feeling that xtr was going to rally hard today 1DAYMAYBE, hence your post back here today ?
ps: Please could you respond to this post with a prediction that xtr is going to tank between now and the end of the year :-)
I don't think anyone will be using $9500 per tonne
Using the valuation method in the link I posted, I have come up with these figures. Obviously I don't know anything about valuing a jorc but here we go.
I have converted from gold to copper and used the gold value at the time of the article and converted to copper price now.
These results are based on 2mt contained copper, using $9500 p/t .
Measured resource 7 billion
Indicated resource 3.4 billion
Inferred resource 1.9 billion
I assume this valuation method is for the NPV.
Just need to work out what percentage a major would pay compared to the NPV.
Great post indeed Andrew !
Ps; In case of confusion, I'm fine with the one and only Mr Colin Bird stage managing the assay results feedback as he sees fit
and
while I understand why many here have high expectations of bushranger - I have reasonably high expectations - it's tangibles like the summation of MANY assay results that allow better clarity on what we actually have.. so best wait and see many more of these towards allowing the formation of strong views here .. as the market seems to be clearly doing..
https://www.stockopedia.com/content/goldstone-resources-how-much-is-a-jorc-worth-40212/
Thought I would share this. I've been trying to find some sort of valuation metric. This does say it's a crude way.
I would be happy to take 15p just for bushranger now plus the affrican assets. That's still only values bushranger at 150 million. I say I would be happy, that's only because I have a very low average.
I would still think its going cheap.
I don't think the huge offload would be PI's.
The African assets will be bringing in 12 million a year approx. Life of mine I thinks 7 years. Obviously a lot of variables but I think that warrants an SP of 4p.
If you say 8p for bushranger that's 80 million fully diluted?
I think we all know its worth more.
Colin and the team have options at 10p.
why would AA or anyone pay anything for as yet unproved asset? Its already established that this is a high risk PI investment vehicle, of no interest to institutional investors, which will only be in a play with a fully updated resource model is produced supported by a full set of assays , no chance of that prior to q2 minimum - snap buyout for 10p or something for the whole company just isn't going to happen (much as some might wish that).
But equally valuations at 20p or 30p using the "discounted cornford model" are all very well and good, but life isn't like that - there needs to be at least one company actively interested in purchasing xtr for that to come into play
I said a while back that an opportunistic swift cash offer of 15p for Bushranger, after a fully updated model with assays, would probably be acceptable to the majority, I would certainly think hard about it.
Colin Bird stated in a video interview that we do not have to accept the jorc valuation. The way I see it is, if we get an offer from anyone else we can then say to AA that's the price take it or leave it.
Nobody on here knows the clauses of the contract but Colin knows more than us.
>>They couldn't buy the whole company. If we prove up over 2mt in the open pit without footrot and the SE many shareholders would vote against. - I'm not so sure, look at where the SP is now and we've had some hefty selling. If the SP jumped to 12p today there would be a huge offload...
They couldn't buy the whole company. If we prove up over 2mt in the open pit without footrot and the SE many shareholders would vote against.
If AA come in with a 12p offer I would think Colin would call the other majors and mid tier miners and see what they are willing to pay.
AA have the first refusal, doesn't stop us from getting offers elsewhere.
I dont think AA would get involved in a low-ball offer until they know what they are buying. For them to know the shareholders would have to know so the market would know. Thats my way of saying it would self balance out regarding the SP ?
>>To be honest, I’m relaxed about the sp drop. It does not reflect the fundamentals here imo.
The problem, as I see it, A4444 is that why would AA (or anyone else) pay 12/15/20p+ etc when they could buy the whole company for ~10p. As I understand it the BoD has to put an offer for the company out to a shareholder vote. Who would vote against a low-ball offer of 10/12p if they got a payout in January?
Ay up Dibs I am back haha!! Strap on folks!!!
ok not yet! Just thought I would pop in & say hi to long termers, not sold any here just busy losin gmoney elsewhere! 2022 will be huge for XTR imho....
Stay safe folks.
>>Its a small miner prospector thing not Colin - You've obviously not been involved in this share/a CB co that long. He's got a long history here of not following his word...
We know there is a lot of work going on behind the scenes but, as has previously happened, I think the issue here is poor management of expectations. Assay turn around was expected to be 6-8 weeks. The only update we have had regarding timings is that we now have a dedicated lab and results should be coming through thick and fast. If anything, they have slowed further still since then with 4 holes +10 weeks and 1 at 14 weeks and counting.
It’s all well and good being relaxed about the share price drop, but that has been the narrative for almost the entirety of the last 12 months drilling. I don’t think it’s too much to expect consistent communication, management of expectations and by now, somewhat of a PR push to start showing the market what we really have. Of course willing to eat my words if that’s what we do see over the next few weeks!
Andrew4444 - superb post. Realistic, balanced, I totally agree that our expectations ‘may’ not be met viz a viz 40p for example but to me it seems impossible that we can lose money from this level.
This drop is purely sentiment driven with v low volume allowing MM’s to drop the price in an attempt to stimulate volume (that’s how they make their money)
To be honest, I’m relaxed about the sp drop. It does not reflect the fundamentals here imo.
CB may exaggerate a bit and be overly optimistic at times but he’s not an idiot. He has unequivocally stated, a few times, that we have at least 2mt CuEq. His reputation would be in taters if he announced we hadn’t now reached that threshold. No one would ever believe a word he ever says again.
Its for that reason I‘m confident we have 2mt but my concern is how that translates to a higher SP. CB has not been as dogmatic or unequivocal of the revised SP after buy-out. His 25p to 30p comment was his expectation but there are a number of variables in that assessment, outside his control, such as the POC that is used in the assessment and % buy-out.
As previously stated I’ve now dismissed the 3% buy-out figure, that Cornford used, as that seems to be more appropriate in a measured resource. In fact 2% seems optimistic from looking at other like for like sales.
Although 1.75% seems reasonable, we may be in for a surprise and discover the % buy-out is much lower than many expected, say 1.4% and the POC used could also be low, at say $8000 . I don’t think this will be the case but there is a possibility it could be much lower than most have assumed.
That said, even if those very pessimistic values are used, at 2mt CuEq that would equate to an sp of 17p (ex African assets and excluding SE / SW and footrot). If we add on a very low valuation for African assets of say 3p, then 20p would seem the absolute minimum the sp should hit some time next year. And that would be assuming there is zero value in the SW / SE extensions and footrot.
That's why I'm relaxed about the drop.
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I'll just leave that there.