The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Are you doing a nappy check comment was funny. But interesting he mentioned the 20% discount someone referred to before.
Interesting to see how far we've come over the past year.
Cygnus- >> I expect they are already doing their homework and talking to CB even as we speak.
I agree there may already have been comms between them.
Back in may last year in podcast Colin was explaining how they couldn’t just declare a decision to mine, he said, “once you get into the hard numbers and models that we are doing, you can say we are starting an open pit and will develop the porphyrys from that pit, partially, we will sink a shaft, partially, so that one gets the benefit of the depth with the pit created.”
Now, wether this was Colin’s expectations back then of what was required to trigger that option, and since then, there has been some clarity from Anglo on what they are willing to accept, for xtract to exercise the mine option. Or, the groundwork is something that will actually be required!
I think generally, if AA want Bushranger, as long as xtract provide the models and pit design, they would be happy with that. It’s totally pointless breaking ground now, considering the amount of work required by AA before any actual mine development work is started with a project of this scale.
From 8.30mins
https://youtu.be/2WFUFdHX62Q
I could have had £10k profit on the day of the first spike, bought a lot more since at much higher prices, currently about 3k up on five times the investment, that will teach me to be greedy eh ?
"Moving toward".
Hasn't that been the case ever since we acquired Bushranger though? I dont think repeating that a few weeks ago is new forward guidance .
The irritation I had over the years is that we get informed of an initial plan but when something changes to make that initial plan defunct we are left to join dots that are not valid any more. This causes the negativity. OK we don't know that has happened with Bushranger but new posters that have arrived since Bushranger should consider that longer term posters here are bringing some experience of previous poor comms to the discussion. Investors new and old want to believe the Bushranger story... but that doesn't mean it is a fully illustrated story or even if it has a good ending. I still don't know what the May/June deadline that Colin asserted would not be missed was all about. Having been a shareholder through previous "kept in the dark" periods I consider the possibility that things haven't gone to plan. I know Colin has difficulty in sharing "warts and all" but poor comms when things haven't gone to plan is a sure fire way of stoking the negativity. I agree with Andrew that 10p should be achievable even if the authors of the Bushranger tale planned a better ending.
Thanks gixxer
Also, CB mentioned the decision to mine only a few weeks ago in Zak’s interim update saying, “ we are moving toward the decision to mine or 2MT, we haven’t decided yet.”
Thanks again.
Just wanted to confirm what I had been thinking for some months now.
Yes, that correct. Also I think, based on interviews, that Colin is planning to use a discounted cash flow model as part of the decision to mine to demonstrate the net present value (profitability of the mine over its life vs investing the money instead). In that way, he not only triggers the decision to mine, but gives AA real evidence of the mine's potential value. This model is what the team has been working on for the last months, updating it as we get new assays, metallurgical analysis, IP surveys, etc.
Thanks
So overall the decision to mine, is just a mechanism that Xtr can use for the purpose of activating the buy back clause. So AA will only have one shot at BR, as they will know that Xtr will not have any inclination to mine, but as mentioned. Put it out on the open market & hope that there will be somebody willing to make a offer of the equivalent of sp of something in the region of £250/300M.
Steve4077, your message triggered a couple of thoughts. Firstly, I think the timing is important. CB may well be playing for time precisely because now is not the best moment to enter a copper resource onto the market although a short squeeze may well occur in the near future when the need for copper overpowers the conventional market forces which suggest that the demand for copper will fall.
Secondly, AA can not be expected to make a big, expensive decision on the purchase of BR in 10 days. Hence I expect they are already doing their homework and talking to CB even as we speak.
BTW it seems obvious that Colin can't say "We are confident of 2mt but we aren't declaring it because we want to wait until conditions improve and the copper price goes back up". Anglo would no doubt involve lawyers at that point. Instead, assuming Colin really does want to delay - either for 2mt or decision to mine - he would go quiet and find things that will justifiably occupy a few more weeks/months.
Yes, we can either declare 2mt or a decision to mine. Either one triggers the buy-out process and forces Anglo to make a fairly quick decision. If they decide not to proceed then we can (hopefully) start a bidding war. This might actually be the best option but probably not right now due to market conditions. Ideally, I think we need to wait a while before triggering the buy-back.
The decision to mine.
Is that just not another way of being able to approach AA & offering them the chance on buying back Bushranger on whatever tonnage has been confirmed on RC?
If AA turn it down though then Xtr can put Bushranger out on the open market.
Assuming Anglo did exactly as you say, that doesn't mean we don't get paid. We could either sell ProspectOre and therefore the extra 20% to someone else, or use the alternative from the June 1st 2020 RNS (below). Worst case is 80% of value plus 0.75% royalty with no costs to pay. As Colin said, it is unlikely Anglo would want a 20% partner, either XTR or someone else, but even if they did, we are still in good shape
"Anglo may buy-back 80% of the Racecourse deposit at fair market value as determined by an Independent Expert in accordance with the JORC and Valmin Code. Anglo and ProspectOre would then provide funding pro-rata to their interests, save that ProspectOre may decide not to provide its share of funding and be diluted, ultimately retaining a 0.75% net smelter royalty (NSR)"
For someone with a lot of shares, its just odd you seem to try to present the worst possible outcome without noting the reality in that situation. Even if you want to sell, why would you try to present the company in a worse light than necessary?
After listening again to the vid; particularly 'Now that's scary as well cause lets face it the capital is massive $1.5/2e9.' & 'We'll do a couple of studies and we'll say to Anglo we've started to mine'
It's possibly the reason why Bird has stopped mentioning the decision to mine route. AA could well call his bluff on this and, obviously, there's no way we can even begin to put in 20% of the cost of mine construction.
Lincolnite
Apologies. In that case it could still be today.
Sorry, that was incorrect he stated:
'If they can write to us and and say we wanna exercise our option and this is the value. We then have 10days to accept that, sorry 5 days. if we don;t accept it that's them now thrown their hat in the ring. And if we don't accept it we gotta go to a expert opinion. That expert I think he's got about 6 days, not a long time (that's another one of my worries that it might take forever) the expert opinion has gotta say what he thinks the value is. Now that's scary as well cause lets face it the capital is massive $1.5/2e9.' Goes on about the ValMin method.......
'Then there's that decision to mine, and you know I thought about that one (mumbles a bit) We'll do a couple of studies and we'll say to Anglo we've started to mine then they've got 10days to decide whether they want it. Then we give Anglo a value and they've got 10 days to say they don't accept the valve. then it's the same process again experts....'
Colin's last RNS on Manica was very underwhelming. Previously he had planned to sell the license. It has caused him a lot of hassle, we are only part owner and in my opinion Colin is happier elsewhere such as Zambia and exploration. Could it be that he is looking to sell out to fund further BR exploration/take on new projects ie Zambia ?.
'As has been stated by some that have heard from Colin in person, there is a ten day (I think)' - In the removed portion of the video presentation Bird stated it's only 5 days Howezap.
Andrew4444 - I would normally agree with you that 07:00 a.m. would be the expected time to drop a results RNS. However, last year the XTR Final Results RNS arrived at 11:06 a.m. on 28 June. This suggests to me that it could arrive at any time of day and I am expecting it to be today or tomorrow. Will certainly be a bit disappointed if it is delayed.
Wonder if the holding back of resource specific information that is evident now also would extend to the financial position of the company.
As has been stated by some that have heard from Colin in person, there is a ten day (I think) period from first approach that Anglo have to return with a decision of intent. Could the company be looking to extend reporting of audited results to have the opportunity to approach AA with as little transparency going into negotiations as possible?
The 2 month or so extra timeframe is coincident with the extension allowance for the years report.
If is the case wholly or even partly, does it mean we will not get any resource specific news until after they have learned of AA’s intent?
SteveM
Careful. You may get accused of being a deramper with a post like that :)
Of course, what you are saying is correct, but I still think this has been massively derisked at the current sp. A few months ago I said that the min sp I could see was 10p - very worst case. You said that you thought that was far too low even at worst case. So you must think that the sp will more than double from here? (Assuming you hold the same view as you did 2 months ago)
Even with my very pessimistic 10p worst case - the sp doubles. It remains to be seen if this does do as well as I and many others think (20p+), but I believe the sp has a 99% chance of doubling in the next 12 months (obviously likely to be more than double).
There are not many co on Aim that many would say that about.
Typical CB MO, new project, Zak this, Zak that, this time next year etc etc, placing, period of silence, first results, Zak this Zak that, placing, drill results etc etc.
Then, prolonged silence. missed projected dates etc etc.
I hope this time it turns out for the good but you aren't doing my blood pressure any good in the meantime Colin.
All i hope for this is just not yet another dangle the carrot without the carrot as is with 5 of the last 8 AIM share i have managed to stick my head in. All the trappings of get rich quick scheme. Maybe not so quick but i'm prepared to wait, all things considered and the amount of news bottle necking. Pop the cork ffs
Guys - There is over-promising on timescales and then there is not releasing appropriate news to the market... which is also a problem.
The RNS dated 31st May was obviously intended to meet the timescale for providing what CB alluded to being an 'AA ready' report/presentation on the BR asset. What we got was nothing of the sort, was all old news and was not RNS worthy. Obviously, the BR assets just keeps getting bigger so why not just update with news that phase 2 drilling is be extended because they system is even bigger than they thought... what shareholder is going to complain about that?
But then there are other promises not kept and RNS worthy news being sat on. Where are the IP survey results that were going to sharpen the picture? And where is the updated drill plan that would be informed by the geophysics, and news of the associated drill pad approvals? If you promise it and then don't provide it (despite shareholders knowing it must be done), then it is only going to result in negative speculation i.e. isn't the news good?
Maybe (hopefully) there is master plan and good reason for delays and sitting on information. But until such a plan is revealed, I will continue to justifiably complain about the poor comm's and pray I an eating humble pie in the not too distant future.
Unless they are released tomorrow (I assume they wont be today as they are released at 7am), then it would appear AndyM is correct when he said that CB could be taking advantage of the 2 month delay option.
If so we may not get the final results until late August and the AGM will also be delayed until then. We should know for sure by 7.05 am tomorrow !