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Steve, I was heavily underwater for many years so it was either sell, at a loss, or hang on.
I had actually been reducing my exposure here and will continue to do so if/when the sp moves back upwards...
@Gixxer-600
Please don't take this the wrong way, but if you have such a bad view of the CEO, why have you stayed here so long? It seems you have a generally pessimistic view of the company. I'm not accusing you of de-ramping because I know you are invested and I know you are genuinely frustrated. However, presenting a consistently negative view of the company and the CEO to current or potential shareholders is not going to help your investment. There are many good reasons to be invested in XTR, despite CB's continual missing of his own target dates, but the latter is what you seem to focus on.
"They aren't actually deadlines in any real sense - nothing is hanging on a specific date." Steve, perhaps not for the company or you but that is not necessarily true for all investors. Some of us have other commitments, investments and opportunities and make where, when and how much investment decisions based on anticipated timelines. It more than frustrating that deadlines are being missed and promised news not delivered.
Let's see if your tone changes a few years down the line Steve.
Bird's methodology has not changed at all in all the time I've been invested here, it's not just about forgetting past events. It's always been 'Shareholder value is just around the corner, trust me'. A 'This time next year Rodney attitude'.
All his past purchases were going to make it for us, all were going to be online in a timely manner and yet none, Alluvial aside, have made us money to date.
I've been here only about 18 months, so I can only judge on that period. There have been two raises, quite early in that period, both of which seemed to have been used effectively. CB said in the June 28th statement last year that there would be no raises for 12 months and he has kept his word on that.
I am happy in general with progress on both BR and Manica during my time at XTR, although I would like to know more about what is happening at Eureka. Things may have gone better, but they could have also gone considerably worse. Overall, the good news has far outweighed the bad. Its hard to see much of a downside here over the longer-term and the financial situation suggests no further raises, so I am quite happy to give CB whatever times he needs until the situation with BR is resolved.
At some point, you have to look on events from years ago as water under the bridge, or they will forever taint your view of any positive events. CB is just terrible at giving time estimates. You have to accept/ignore that or it will just be an endless source of frustration in what otherwise seems to be a good investment.
'I know it is frustrating when we miss "deadlines", but those are really just arbitrary dates given by CB in his usual over-optimistic way.' - It's frustrating to me Steve as he's been doing it for 8 years with 10's of millions raised and massive dilution to LTH's.
As I've mentioned some projects are years and years behind schedule, for sure I can see that happening here to.
The only upside now is that, finally, Manica is ramping up so he will, hopefully, dilute us less!
2nd December 2020: Drilling approvals were gained
"The Board of Xtract Resources Plc ("Xtract" or the "Company") is pleased to announce that it has received all required governmental approvals in order to proceed with its maiden, Phase One, drilling programme on the Bushranger copper-gold exploration project"
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/XTR/bushranger-project-phase-one-drill-programme-5cmaszh1nh2mxug.html
16th December 2020: Commencement of Drilling
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/XTR/bushranger-commencement-of-drilling-98veayivcjvrvy0.html
TBH a few months either way isn't that important anyway. They have a done a huge amount of drilling in the last 18 months - 51 holes that we know of with an estimated 40km drilled, plus whatever has happening since the last update.
I know it is frustrating when we miss "deadlines", but those are really just arbitrary dates given by CB in his usual over-optimistic way. They aren't actually deadlines in any real sense - nothing is hanging on a specific date. We all know that CB is consistently under-estimating timeframes, yet someone we still get frustrated at something we pretty much already knew was going to happen.
If you just ignore CB's timeframes and look at actual progress, XTR have achieved a huge amount at BR in a relatively short time.
Now you've got me looking through old RNS's - Way back in 2019 Kalengwa should have kicked off.....
Colin Bird, Executive Chairman said: "I am pleased to have completed this processing arrangement which makes immediately available to us, relatively high-grade dump material for processing. We will also commence exploration operations to identify the possible extensions of the open pit ore both on strike and depth.
On signing the agreement, we will recommence operations and advance to the initial operation. The initial operation will be upgraded to a mechanised sophisticated ore sorting system. During this initial phase, the Company will explore for extensions of the open pit both North and South. The results from the exploration will determine the size and operating requirements of a larger operation. We will also assess the possibility of dewatering the former open pit with a view to access the high-grade ore left at the bottom.
I read his, not being late comment as a positive, suggesting rather than being late through delays or inept managing. It was through a decision to extend with s good chance to increase overall value potential at Ascot due to the significance of the gold.
The assays speak for themselves, I certainly disagree that they are just trying to make up any shortfall at RC
But XTR were moving forward from 1st June way before that RNS Steve - Drilling plan was already, allegedly, complete by August 13.
· Initial planning for drilling program completed and permitting process under way
Comms, not ‘comma’
That was the conditional sale agreement on June 1st. The purchase was completed on 27th October 2020
"The Board of Xtract Resources Plc ("Xtract" or the "Company") is pleased announce that it has now received all necessary approvals and has satisfied all conditions precedent for the acquisition of the Bushranger copper-gold exploration project"
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/XTR/completion-of-acquisition-of-bushranger-project-bj1w5xoch7sxr94.html
I share the frustration about lack of comma, given the expectation built around the May / June date. But the way I look at it is this. ( My, unscientific assessments, based on my interpretations of the RNSs). At worst, even if we fall short of 2Mt, we must have in the region of 1.5Mt at Racecourse alone. So even if AA don’t want it, someone will - it’s location, close to power and transport, in a friendly mining country, means that it is very improbable it won’t sell. So, at very worst, say 10p a share. Then let’s consider the potential upside from this. Say a 50% probability of RC alone getting to 2Mt. Then we have Ascot. Say a 50% probability of 1Mt Cu equiv, and maybe a 30% probability of Ascot making 2Mt+. Then Footrot - 5% probability of 1Mt? And who knows if we touch on some other porphyries - there was a drill earlier in ph 2 ( I forget which) that appeared to intersect another porphyry at depth - to the east. Then with the Fairbride revenue, we have good funds coming in - little chance of dilution. So all in all, I see a real probability of the share price at least doubling in the next few months, with the possibility of an even greater upside. This has got to be one of the safest bets on AIM at the moment. So, I’m sticking around, and not selling a single share, until Colin takes us to the end game. Would I prefer this to be in the next couple of months? Of course I would - but if this takes to end ‘22, early ‘23, it will still have been worth waiting for.
'To be fair, we are a while off two years here.' - Deal was done ~25months ago Steve.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/XTR/bushranger-copper-gold-project-australia-o7u71uhdwbdy9b9.html
>> Kalumbila was sold off sharpish in less than 2 years with minimal drilling. His plan was the same here IMO but it hasn't worked out as he expected...
To be fair, we are a while off two years here. The Bushranger sale was completed about 20 months ago and drilling started 18 months ago. We've also drilled about 40,000m ish, which is huge for a small company like XTR in such a short time. A lot faster than GGP did their drilling at Haverion for example.
Steve - What you suggest sounds suspiciously like a strategy. Don't be ridiculous! ;)
'Another possibility here is that the delay is deliberate, rather than unintended.'
- I don't think it's that for a second Steve. In his latest interview when pressed why he did not meet the deliverable he actually stated 'we are not late' (I mean WTF at least admit it, his ego just won't allow him to admit mistakes...)
His gob got overly excited with stories of 2Mt in the bag at racecourse alone/ possibilities of 1e9t and he's now having to do remedial work to make RC viable IMHO.
Kalumbila was sold off sharpish in less than 2 years with minimal drilling. His plan was the same here IMO but it hasn't worked out as he expected...
Another possibility here is that the delay is deliberate, rather than unintended. CB said in his last interview that the market was the worst that he can remember. When he made the May prediction, he probably didn't expect the following few months to include a major war in Europe, a global fuel crisis, a global food crisis, more Chinese lockdowns, high inflation and a looming recession, not to mention a significant drop in commodity prices.
CB's unusual low-key approach in recent weeks may be intended to lower short-term expectations and take the company into a fairly dormant phase for a month or two so he doesn't have to conduct negotiations in this economic climate. If we have the assets in Australia and we have sufficient cash from Manica, that gives XTR the luxury of waiting until that climate improves, without worrying about either short-term share price or operational expenses.
The RNS dated 31/05/22 was a complete 'nothing burger', didn't come close to satisfying expectations (set by CB) and should never have been allowed to be released as an RNS as it was all old news.
We all know that the timelines for JORC's, pit modelling, financial modelling, valuations, presentations to AA, sales negotiations etc are subject to the findings from the ongoing 2nd phase drilling programme. So wouldn't it be better to focus on phase 2 drilling? How about telling us where the new drill pads are and share the drill plan? How about telling us why those locations were selected and what they will be testing for? How about sharing the IP survey results as promised?
I still have a lot of confidence that Bushranger will come good (the vast, vast majority of my investment portfolio is in XTR) but it doesn't stop the feeling of frustration and annoyance that the SP is where it is because of the comm's.
Not particularly relevant to Bushranger here and now, but may bode well for the future employment needs, of a large mining operation with the many other supportive industries that would be reliant on it that a major Mining company would have to consider. Oberon being the nearest big town just 15min drive from black springs.
All adds to the legitimacy of a new mine (or two) being granted in the region of what is a mining nation after all.
https://www.oberonreview.com.au/story/7786371/nsw-government-unveils-500m-plan-to-unlock-housing-supply/?cs=1495
Could be argued that if James’s optimistic view that CB is already in discussion with AA are true. It would certainly imply that the decision to buy back in from AA is inevitable. As would doubt CB would want to be drawn into a position where they are dictated to, in what is required if there is indecision. Not great business acumen.
Besides, the project director is more than capable of seeing where inconsistencies lie in the model and establishing the best early start up phase through the model. So, if it were the case, for AA to then suggest extra high grade recovery would imply that the financial model has been submitted to them too.
I personally cannot see it, doesn’t quite add up.
I also believe he mentioned that he wanted to be in discussions with AA by May!
I always understood that the May deadline was for CB to meet with AA, the optimistic/rampy part of my head thinks that maybe this meeting has taken place and is why CB is being quite specific with the next step and is based on feedback on what is required for AA to be interested e.g. drill a couple of holes to complete the model and more shallow holes to give more confidence that the Capex can be quicky repaid.
The more pessimistic/realistic part of my head thinks this is another missed deadline (a deadline which was not required to be given out).
Cheers
James
I can fully appreciate frustrations with CB. But….to be fair he also give a damn good clue that this could be extended by saying “unless we find another bonanza.” You cannot argue that the potential of another cadia is not a bonanza. So his targets were never set in stone, come on!
It may or may not be more extensively drilled, but the plan ‘stated’ to drive a couple more into the system will add value, but more importantly to the project desirability of a major almost certain to want to take it on. There are any number of deeper porphyry clustered under racecourse and Ascot, it is not known how many, targeting has been to open pittable depths. So, to actually identify a seemingly huge high grade gold system under ascot, (seeming due to geological nature from analysis) is an important discovery.
The couple extra holes that will sure up the model at Racecourse, gives confidence at least, that the model is as good as complete there, to have been able to have made that analysis.
Agreed also, the shallow high grade early recovery drills are prudent.
If they get this ‘first option to buy’ deal right, it will not only, return a bigger pay day altogether for shareholders, but will be less likely that AA pass on the first option to buy and the project drags on for many more months as a new buyer is found.
We are still in the realms of that ‘quick sale,’ I will start getting impatient if there are plans for more extensive drilling than the couple of extra at ascot. Be worth the extra wait.
Spot on Andrew..... I was expecting all Racecourse drilling and results completed and the model issued by end of May and into June..... so a little disappointed with that. You were right again to be skeptical ..... I bought into the May/June date completely
It's speculation but I do think the last 2 holes, used as the reason for continuing RC exploration a little longer is a stalling tactic to let Ascot definition reach a more appropriate point..... although the shallow holes proposed to improve the projected early cashflow are obviously prudent.
What we could do with now is a map and plan of drilling locations but for some reason issuing this type of info has become less frequent.