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CARAVEL MINERALS ON ASX, AUSTRALIA
[Referenced by John Cornford, Mining Analyst: XTR Bushranger in most recent article]
BINDI, WESTERN AUSTRALIA
Mr Cornford said that Bindi has a JORC.
I have located: "MAJOR INCREASE IN CARAVEL COPPER RESOURCE."-13.2.19
"3 6 6 MT grading 0 . 3 5 %% cu."
"52% increase in contained cu copper @ 0. 2 5 % cu CUT-OFF at 1 . 2 8 4 MT."
"32% increase in contained copper at 0. 1 5 % cu CUT OFF at 1. 8 6 Mt."
[1.284Mt + 1.86Mt = 3.144 Mt]
My comment:
AA wants 440 Mt from XTR. The Bindi resource is NOT 440M from the above data.
Interesting as it would appear that the Bindi resource in Western Australia as mentioned by Mr Cornford appears to be somewhat NEAR BODA*s GRADE . Also, the CUT-OFF IS 0.15% CU for the 32% increase as above & 0.25% cu.
Kindly check as I had to take notes quickly given I had to go out earlier.
Sat, 24 Apr 2021.
New South Wales...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TYQb3FtJfm0
So the mention that Bindi is "NEAR SURFACE" per one poster earlier today on this forum is NOT correct given it is porphyry. The poster is not one of the regulars.
So, Bindi*s latest drilling results ie deep drilling comes to 270m whilst XTR*s intersections go to some 920m at the 1st hole.
LoL -- Hole 1 Racecourse XTR @0.33% CU EQ or 0.30% CU at 920m sure is nice vs Bindi?
News, Fri, 23 Apr 2021
DYOR
JOHN CORNFORD, MASTER INVESTORS ON XTR.
3 days ago.
I have just checked further relating to the co mentioned by Mr Cornford ie Caravel Minerals on ASX - Bindi Porphyry, Western Australia.
The mkt cap is now A$88m =£51m. } I have updated it from Mr Cornford*s earlier mkt cap.
XTR mkt cap now: £41m.
BINDI has issued a very recent ANN/RNS re: drilling results.
Hole 21CAD shows 68m @0.27% cu, 36m @0.31% cu & 30m @0.39% cu & 58m @0.28% cu with D E P T H to 576METRES.
Other holes are also in the above range with only 1 section @6m at 1.18% cu.
The ANN stated that drill hole 21CAD001 and show "SIGNIFICANT MINERALISED ZONES [GREATER THAN -----------0. 1 5 % CUT-OFF GRADE ---with 270 METRES OF THICKNESS, depth >450m -down hole650m." Dated 19 Apr 2021
https://hotcopper.com.au/asx/cvv
My comment:
Interesting that Bindi reported "significant mineralised zones GREATER THAN 0.15% CU"
which could mean that there are not so significant zones? Mr Bird, Executive Chairman, XTR yesterday mentioned copper at a sustained US$10,000 which could mean also that XTR Bushranger could enjoy a 0.15% cu CUT-OFF per Scoping Study? Currently, copper is US$9,000+.
Bindi*s ann also mentioned "DEEP DRILLING" but their deep is only up to around max 650m down hole.
Mr Cornford mentioned BINDI as a COMPARITIVE BENCHMARK TO XTR*S BUSHRANGER and said that it has an NPV of $2bn = £260m potential. Interesting that Bindi is said by Mr Cornford to have 2Mt copper.
But looking at the GRADES AND INTERVALS, XTR grades and intervals are of interest.
Mr Cornford also mentioned "XTR: ...ASSAYS HOPEFULLY SOON OF THE 1ST F O U R DRILL HOLES." So, Mr Cornford is anticipating 4 drill hole assays as opposed to one by one assay result releases? This is norm to release a set.
DYOR.
I think the margin the buyer wants will be in the 97% of in ground contained copper value.
I also doubt that AA or anyone else would use the current spot price for copper in a buy-out calculation - they'd want to see a margin. No doubt CB would argue the price is only going one way but therein lies the art of negotiation.
I can’t see anything negative in his blog tbh There are a few comments which are a bit strange but nothing really important
I think the highest the s/p will be in April 2022 is 25p and the lowest it will be is 5p.. so, going by my standard methodology of picking the mid point between my view on highest and lowest, I predict this share price will be 15p in April 2022. Of couse there's huge chance involved in all such predictions and when I see how badly wrong the vast majority of postser get their predictions generally my conclusion is, on average: random path :-)
I suppose the only figure that matters is what Colin gets for us. even at 1% that would be 13p plus say 5p for the African stuff. 3x higher than where we are now. Anything above 2mT with the price of copper only going one way can only increase that 18p target ? Unless Colin has got this badly wrong surely that 18p must be regarded as a minimum ?
I can understand why Cornford would want to distance himself from any possible accusation of ‘investment advice’ or being too rampy with his previous SP predictions. He has declared that this is now his biggest investment so may need to be a bit more circumspect with what he now says. And that's what I think he's now doing
He has been inconsistent with one point he makes though. In the earlier article he claimed 3% was ‘conservative’, but has now claimed that ‘some of the best prices’ in the last copper bull run were around 3%. So the 3% has gone from being conservative to best price.
Anyhow, even at 2% (2mt and $9500 POC) this comes out at 27p.
I would think we can add 5p min for African assets when income producing - so plenty of upside and no doubt why this is Cornford's biggest holding and why CB bought another 1 m recently.
BTW, If anyone is doing any calcs I would recommend they use 1Billion shares in the calc. 840M in issue and now 150M warrants and options.
Of course AIMHO
Totally understand JCs post there - xtr could end up being half or double the valuation number he put forward a while back . I was never quite sure where the 3% came from and whether it might apply . I just had a valuation of my company carried out , the methodology was unexpected as was the final figure!
It ultimately comes down to what someone wants to pay for it.
It would be in xtracts interest to make it a “good deal” for AA. We don’t want them being put off by the fair value mechanism if there alternatives they can go and lowball, who might bite their hand off.
If fair value used ended up being 2% and we are at 3.5mt then we are still in an extremely good position.
I would say we are pursuing the exactly correct strategy so I am very content. Build a very sound model of a proven resource over the next 6 months and thereby get the asset in play . The more we can add over 2mt in an easily mined and logistically brilliant situation, the easier a sale becomes.
And we now have all the cash we need to carry out the plan while copper price rises and the majors are very actively seeking new acquisitions. Very good timing and that’s sometimes all that matters .
Gla
I'm sorry if it's you JC. I was proud of that line though.
NtM - "The ants are back Ted."
Stevem that is exactly how I read it. He obviously reads this board and has got a bit spooked by everyone quoting his valuation (some seemingly quoting it as a fact of how much it is worth).
JC has effectively published a disclaimer because so many have referenced his article/valuation... including me!
He is reminding us that valuations are complex and there are still lots of missing variables, which means an accurate valuation is impossible. But the fact is that if you want to be on board a multi-bagger boat then you need to get on early i.e. before all the blanks are filled in. I don't think the message is negative... he is simply telling people to DYOR! Fair enough.
@Fatherturd
Only 2 weeks ago he was dubbed 'John CornHole MasterDebater'
It would appear that suddenly he has something to say in support of your continued negative narrative!
Good Quotes Ted.
Here's one back for you :
"I'm no good at judging the size of crowds Ted, but I'd say there's about seventeen million of them out there."
Father Dougal McGuire
Re John Cornford article, several points...
*I like his cautious tone.
*In justifying his 3% value guesstimate, he says that during the last bull market, some near-surface gold deposits went for 3%ish of their in situ value. But this ignores that there's always a substantial premium placed on the precious metals vs base metals, in terms of buyout/in situ ratios. BM's go a fair bit cheaper, I dunno why.
*Caravel's Bindi is an excellent comparison project. (and i sold them $10x ago, oh well.) It's in Oz, it's near surface, low grade but with a positive economic study, has already surpassed the 2 million tons....AND COSTS LESS THAN XTR today. Food for thought anyhow.
*Yes we all got ripped off on Hot Maden, but for those who held, Sandstorm is a great company to find yourself invested in, and their shares have continued to rise since '16.
*Cascabel is not 90% copper. The new boss recently said it's 60/40, and obviously the numbers move around with the metal prices. The mine plan which target their high-grade ore for the early years of production, will see gold generating more than half of their project NPV, due to the high-grade ore containing exponentially more gold as the general CuEq grade increases.
*I really like that Charles Mackay paraphrase. It's one of those sources of wisdom which all speculators must internalize...
https://www.goodreads.com/work/quotes/1033191-extraordinary-popular-delusions-and-the-madness-of-crowds
https://www.mining.com/goldman-doubles-down-record-high-copper-price-within-a-year/
Increasing copper price, massive increase in demand and reducing output and grades from existing producers. A perfect storm developing?
Although frustrating in the short term if this story takes a year or 2 to unfold all the better
Article relating to his investing in xtract
1st paragraph
https://www.jioforme.com/johns-mining-journal-featured-on-xtract-emmerson-controy-gold/219494/
Is an honest, balanced piece of impartial journalism considering John Cornford has stated in a previous article that he is mainly invested in Xtract.
So is a fair enough change of tone to be seen to be impartial, considering the fundamentals have only improved since his original piece in January.
Interesting article nonetheless
Can you remind me how many shares CB has personally purchased in XTR since bushranger picture evolved ? 2 million I think ?
Yes, seems balanced. He correctly lays out what needs to happens in the next few months. He also points out that market value doesn't always equal 'fair' value until a bid comes along.
Fortunately, in our case I think the AA buy-out option includes a clause for a neutral 3rd party to determine the 'fair value', so it is much harder for AA to lowball a bid. Besides, given the increasing supply-demand imbalance for copper and the recent Goldman Sachs estimate of future copper price (60% higher), I don't think we need to get too concerned about waiting a few months to prove up the resources.
Balanced, is a better description
He doesn't seem to positive does he?...