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How many on here planning on attending the AGM, and if any were there last year, how was the turnout, how many people approx?
There were around 30 people in the room. Its a really good opportunity to speak directly to Colin and the other board members present. My takeaway was that he is either a very good actor, or he speaks from the heart and feels he is saying it how it is. You certainly get a little more frank insight during the Q&A tahan you do form a formal communication such as an RNS. Sadly I cannot attend this year.
And there is the problem... the frank insights have no value to the market.
As an investor there is a huge value to speaking directly to the BOD when for most of the year there is only the guesswork of bulletin board posters, albeit on a range from well respected to infuriatingly obtuse, to inform one's opinion.
I would prefer that the company did not embark on a hyped up media campaign. That lays out all sorts of claims and targets for naysayers to seize on and try to create mischief with. So in general counter productive.
The 88 Energy mugs used to go to the pub with their BOD and got absolutely rinsed. You've got to take it all with a pinch of salt.
JS I'll attend. Was away with work for last AGM but I attended the investor conference shortly before the AGM and the chance to talk directly with Colin in a smaller group was very valuable.
I'm glad we have the final slot of the day
If that is your attitude, that you can't even rely to some extent on a grown-up conversation in the (I have to regretfully admit, completely sober) environment of a small AGM with the board of directors, who do you trust to get your information from? If you don't believe a word of what you hear you should not be investing at all, surely?
Those "frank insights" would have value to the market if the previous "frank insights" were proven to be correct.
If someone said 10 things, the first 5 have proven to be incorrect would anyone be confident about the next 5 comments being correct or would they be sceptical?
I think the difference of option here could be due to the sample of occurrences. Post bushranger investors are basing their opinion on a much smaller sample compared to LTHs
I'm not saying it wont all turn out fine or maybe very well, but I think its wrong to dismiss any negative alternative view as nonsense or deliberately negative.
Andrew 4444, the logical inference from what you are saying is that you now don't trust what the company says (ie your last 5 'insights' following the supposedly discredited first 5). I think Uscita was suggesting you can't trust anything a company says. So as investors where do we get our trusted information from on which to base our investments? You have to believe something as a truth, otherwise everything you invest in is a complete punt. We can't turn up with a rig and drill our own core samples.
"Andrew 4444, the logical inference from what you are saying is that you now don't trust what the company says"
I'm not sure how you came to that conclusion tbh.
The logical conclusion is that there is no guarantee that everything that has been said will happen. So we may not get the 20P+ buy-out he implied or anything like the 2mt.
But that doesnt mean it wont happen, as I've said many times before. The fact that I'm still invested shows that my bet it that it is more likely that it will be OK in the end.
As I've said before, its not that you can't believe anything CB says, its that you cant believe everything he says.
" So as investors where do we get our trusted information from on which to base our investments? "
I'd say a RNS.
I believe all the figures and statements there.
Take your point. I've enjoyed the exchange. It was interesting to think it through and hear you too.
'A pinch of salt' doesn't mean don't believe anything they say. I'm not sure how you could infer that.
It means remember they have their motivations and incentives and you have yours and they may not always align exactly
Looks like the rise was from the pump crew having knowledge before the rns came out again!!
Don't think we are getting the model soon and the next drill campaign will take another 4 weeks for drill approvals, one week per hole? Maybe 10 weeks for drilling. Then there's 8 weeks for the assays and don't forget the months for creating another model. These are all minimum time scales!! So minimum another 8 months??
Look on the bright side, we can get some more into the isa in April!
Another 8 months is too much in my opinion.It goes against everything CB said about this project.
Yes I know about the discovery expanding and the " giving away a Cadia" argument and I agree to a point.
I do think we are sweeping around for crumbs now and that can sometimes cost you more than it's worth.
I was happy with 3-6 months slippage but I don't want to be sat here in a year's time still at 4p.
Let's see what the AGM brings......
It suits the BOD getting paid their salaries though.
Do all the research you want but, altogether, there's clearly much chance involved in the commodity exploration game.... therefore I think peoples expectations of MR CB's - or his peers in other AIM Commodity plays - opinions are often too high.
In case of confusion, I have little towards no doubt that CB gives broadly genuine opinions.... but drilling 'oles looking for commodities is a plenty inexact science, even these days.. and they're his opinions only, that of course change at least somewhat, perhaps a lot, as the exploration program progresses.
Altogether, I'm reasonably happy with CB's progress and opinions so far on Bushranger.. and while I think the s/p could easily be higher now, I'm not shocked at where it is either.. and that's only valuing Bushranger at max. 2p out of the approx 4p current s/p btw.. I especially say this in the context of an understandings I've developed over the years in this game, that, year on year, the AIM Market is more and more focused on the 'in play' betting and less and less focused on longterm buy and hold.
Finally, generally, I think 'the market' is more savvy than the punters like to entertain, and equally punters - and anyone who plays AIM commodities is a punter imho - are less savvy than they'd like to entertain.. and I absolutely include myself in that last bit too
"Another 8 months is too much in my opinion"
Unfortunately, I think that is a realistic timescale for a buy-out. That said, I don't think the sp will still be sitting at 4p then. I would expect the sp to start to rise after we have had RNS with official first FB income, say in September / October, and hopefully keep rising as production is ramped up at FB and better income results are released right through to December.
By Q4 we will have more info re RC and Ascot and obviously closer to a buy-out and if all is going well, with no unexpected bad news, then sp should be nearer to 10p than 5p by end of year and having upward momentum.
So it probably wont be a case of sitting here at 4p for 8months with nothing happen to sp.
I agree that SP will at some point be higher by xmas even if it is a manufactured spike and fall back. Should be some sort of an opportunity to get out if thats what some want.
Following the successful completion of the Phase Two drilling Programme at Bushranger, the Company will now take some time to reflect on the results of the programme as the upgraded resource model for Racecourse is completed and a maiden resource model for Ascot achieved.
Given the discovery of significant intervals of copper and gold mineralisation both at the new Ascot discovery and Racecourse, the company intend to plan a Phase Three drilling programme which will focus on in-fill and upgrade drilling of the current known resources; resource extension drilling; and testing of further IP/geochemical anomalies outside the Ascot and Racecourse prospects.
So I read this again and am trying to think where the extended drilling is going. Obviously phase 3 will be for racecourse and ascot, then it says testing ip/geochemical targets...... as fare as I am aware we have only test around racecourse/ascot and footrot. They didn't say footrot, so where has this extra surveying come from or do they mean the outskirts of rc/ascot?
Either way, it sounds great for the size of the resource...... but my god I think it means longer than even i expected!!!!
That's infill drilling, extension drilling and new anomaly drilling. All will need planning, planning permission, drilling, slitting assaying and modelling and even if we find some new stuff outside of RC and ascot..... that will need meteorological testing too.
meteorological testing ? what on earth has the weather got to do with it ? ;)
Haha metallurgical! I can't blame spell check. That was all me!!
Kriging.
In statistics, originally in geostatistics, kriging or Kriging, also known as Gaussian process regression, is a method of interpolation based on Gaussian process governed by prior covariances. Under suitable assumptions of the prior, kriging gives the best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP) at unsampled locations.[