London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Kriging.
Haha metallurgical! I can't blame spell check. That was all me!!
meteorological testing ? what on earth has the weather got to do with it ? ;)
That's infill drilling, extension drilling and new anomaly drilling. All will need planning, planning permission, drilling, slitting assaying and modelling and even if we find some new stuff outside of RC and ascot..... that will need meteorological testing too.
Following the successful completion of the Phase Two drilling Programme at Bushranger, the Company will now take some time to reflect on the results of the programme as the upgraded resource model for Racecourse is completed and a maiden resource model for Ascot achieved.
Given the discovery of significant intervals of copper and gold mineralisation both at the new Ascot discovery and Racecourse, the company intend to plan a Phase Three drilling programme which will focus on in-fill and upgrade drilling of the current known resources; resource extension drilling; and testing of further IP/geochemical anomalies outside the Ascot and Racecourse prospects.
So I read this again and am trying to think where the extended drilling is going. Obviously phase 3 will be for racecourse and ascot, then it says testing ip/geochemical targets...... as fare as I am aware we have only test around racecourse/ascot and footrot. They didn't say footrot, so where has this extra surveying come from or do they mean the outskirts of rc/ascot?
Either way, it sounds great for the size of the resource...... but my god I think it means longer than even i expected!!!!
I agree that SP will at some point be higher by xmas even if it is a manufactured spike and fall back. Should be some sort of an opportunity to get out if thats what some want.
"Another 8 months is too much in my opinion"
Unfortunately, I think that is a realistic timescale for a buy-out. That said, I don't think the sp will still be sitting at 4p then. I would expect the sp to start to rise after we have had RNS with official first FB income, say in September / October, and hopefully keep rising as production is ramped up at FB and better income results are released right through to December.
By Q4 we will have more info re RC and Ascot and obviously closer to a buy-out and if all is going well, with no unexpected bad news, then sp should be nearer to 10p than 5p by end of year and having upward momentum.
So it probably wont be a case of sitting here at 4p for 8months with nothing happen to sp.
Do all the research you want but, altogether, there's clearly much chance involved in the commodity exploration game.... therefore I think peoples expectations of MR CB's - or his peers in other AIM Commodity plays - opinions are often too high.
In case of confusion, I have little towards no doubt that CB gives broadly genuine opinions.... but drilling 'oles looking for commodities is a plenty inexact science, even these days.. and they're his opinions only, that of course change at least somewhat, perhaps a lot, as the exploration program progresses.
Altogether, I'm reasonably happy with CB's progress and opinions so far on Bushranger.. and while I think the s/p could easily be higher now, I'm not shocked at where it is either.. and that's only valuing Bushranger at max. 2p out of the approx 4p current s/p btw.. I especially say this in the context of an understandings I've developed over the years in this game, that, year on year, the AIM Market is more and more focused on the 'in play' betting and less and less focused on longterm buy and hold.
Finally, generally, I think 'the market' is more savvy than the punters like to entertain, and equally punters - and anyone who plays AIM commodities is a punter imho - are less savvy than they'd like to entertain.. and I absolutely include myself in that last bit too
It suits the BOD getting paid their salaries though.
The policy of providing a NED with a bonus who is the chair of the remuneration committee is a bit of a red flag for me in addition to the comms.
According to BDO only 2% of AIM NEDs received a bonus
Another 8 months is too much in my opinion.It goes against everything CB said about this project.
Yes I know about the discovery expanding and the " giving away a Cadia" argument and I agree to a point.
I do think we are sweeping around for crumbs now and that can sometimes cost you more than it's worth.
I was happy with 3-6 months slippage but I don't want to be sat here in a year's time still at 4p.
Let's see what the AGM brings......
Vote against reappointing Allistair Ford. I do wonder if he is responsible a policy of downbeat presentation of news.
He seems to be as much use as an ashtray on a motorbike.
Looks like the rise was from the pump crew having knowledge before the rns came out again!!
Don't think we are getting the model soon and the next drill campaign will take another 4 weeks for drill approvals, one week per hole? Maybe 10 weeks for drilling. Then there's 8 weeks for the assays and don't forget the months for creating another model. These are all minimum time scales!! So minimum another 8 months??
Look on the bright side, we can get some more into the isa in April!
Another really good point Cygnus about the resource class. The first pit study was based on the inferred resource so was really just an exercise to show potential. The new study will be based on an upgraded/part upgraded indicated resource that carries a higher degree of geological confidence that carries over to give credibility to the financial study that an inferred resource does not.
Another strong indication toward the decision to mine of which the infill drilling Colin suggested they would do in very early phase 2.
It again is supportive of the intent to proceed with the decision to mine long before it was suggested that they are only considering it to trigger the buy back because of the ‘perceived’ lack of tonnage from RC.
Another piece to the puzzle maybe. Does make sense.
'A pinch of salt' doesn't mean don't believe anything they say. I'm not sure how you could infer that.
It means remember they have their motivations and incentives and you have yours and they may not always align exactly
I'm very much a novice on this technique and may have even mis-spelt kriging!
This link is one I harvested from GGP which gives some insight.
I hope your background in ballistics proves helpful when the share price here explodes :)
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1wlFXrqKsQz5BZAd7Qqu1g17cP7JM0ndb/view?usp=sharing
Just looked up 'kringing'. Very interesting and feeds into my background where I used to use statistics for my work in ballistics - but never hear of it! Now retired....
I had assumed something similar would be used to estimate the grades across the pit. I imaging this is why two extra holes were placed into RC at the end of phase 2. One cannot simply assume that two holes hundreds of metres apart have grades of Cu simply interpolated between the two. This is the difference between an 'inferred' and 'indicate' and 'measured' resources. Hence the two extra holes will not only prove up additional Cu but will give greater confidence to the Cu in the whole surrounding area.
Hi Cygnus yeah it really was either good fortune or the resulting effectiveness that the drone mounted EM surveying overlayed with the IP data. A technique they have been using with seemingly better success in targeting. This hole was an outlying anomaly to the east of Ascot. RNS 10th may hole 33
andmillsy,
I've never heard of kringing but I can ask.
Hi Cygnus
Do you know by any chance if your Porphyry PHD colleague has attempted to run a technique called kringing on any of the available assays and hole data ?
I feel they have chosen a career / academic path which will be in great future demand !
Stevemocal,
Yes, maybe you are right. It is difficult to get a sense of what the average across a large area is when the 'hot' zones are so patchy.
On a slightly different subject, I think the 15+ g/T of gold at Ascot suggests that there is a lot more there. You don't (almost) randomly drill hundreds of metres below the surface and accidentally hit a 2 metre stretch of gold like that.
Cygnus - If you look at the drill hole summary that is provided with the latest drill update RNS, you'll see that just about every drill hole in phase 1 & 2 has sections where the grade is 0.33-0.48%. Some sections are substantially higher.
Take your point. I've enjoyed the exchange. It was interesting to think it through and hear you too.
" So as investors where do we get our trusted information from on which to base our investments? "
I'd say a RNS.
I believe all the figures and statements there.
"Andrew 4444, the logical inference from what you are saying is that you now don't trust what the company says"
I'm not sure how you came to that conclusion tbh.
The logical conclusion is that there is no guarantee that everything that has been said will happen. So we may not get the 20P+ buy-out he implied or anything like the 2mt.
But that doesnt mean it wont happen, as I've said many times before. The fact that I'm still invested shows that my bet it that it is more likely that it will be OK in the end.
As I've said before, its not that you can't believe anything CB says, its that you cant believe everything he says.