Rainbow Rare Earths Phalaborwa project shaping up to be one of the lowest cost producers globally. Watch the video here.
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The economic contraction and worsening fears of recession that has caused copper prices to drop 30 odd percent since last March looks like it’s finally showing some bullish signs. Another good day’s trading currently just over 4%up at 3.60 from as low as 3.29 in July.
>>> Concerns of tight supplies in the long run are prevalent, with industrial players flagging increasing risks of shortages. Commodity trader Trafigura warned that global copper stocks have fallen to record lows, with current inventories enough to supply world consumption for just 4.9 days. Freeport-McMoran was also vocal about shortage risks, stating that the current low prices do not reflect the tightness in the physical market.<<<
Looking promising, with hopes that demand may improve amid the possibility that the Fed could slow its tightening momentum.
CB was wrong about a quick resolution to the conflict in Ukraine, but will be a bit happier to see copper rising. Looks promising.
* Trading Economics.com
Colin quoted once in an old podcast with Zak. “It’s better to go into negotiation with a strong market cap than apologising for a week one.”
I suppose having a poor market cap, could be perceived that we are at a dead end, with a lot less option to take the project any further with more of a need to sell, as any further raise now will have too much dilution. It would potentially put AA in a stronger position at the negotiating table, but as we will now be getting meaningful income contribution now from fairbride, which has been confirmed it has now gone into full production, so would assume that means they are now running the high grade ore through the plant, and not the low grade material to run up the plant they found whilst stripping off the overburden. So now, that wouldn’t necessarily be the case as we could self fund any further exploration. So not having a stronger market cap will not necessarily matter.
it’s a waffle theory at least and the only one I can come up with.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RDHYISLK6QQ
If you can spare the time this 35 minute video from the oft-called ‘king of mining’, Ivanhoe’s Robert Friedland, is recommended viewing. Aside from being a fascinating watch, it has totally reinforced my belief in my copper plays. Dunno why this passed me by earlier in the year!
Maybe those tiddlers are Porvenerial/Ted changing tack and now, incrementally, putting his total returns from a lifetime of Investing in up a mountain in the middle of nowhere copper plays into xtr?
I want an account fee of 9p!
I've wondered this as well, is it just to get the SP moving to prompt buying/selling?
Zero. I have a number of shares in a Fidelity ISA. Fidelity periodically sell off £1-£10 of my shares (depending on the quantity I hold) to pay the holding/admin fees that are associated with my ISA account. Could these sort of transactions account for some/majority of the very small share volume transactions that we see?
An idle observation on the quietest of days: Often, related to any share on LSE, there are tiny transactions that seem to make no sense. With stocks where there is a much higher number of transactions this can sometimes be explained by a bit of housekeeping by brokers, rounding things off, etc. But on a lightly traded AIM stock like XTR? Today so far, half of the 6 transactions posted have been for a value of £10 or less. The most recent for about 10p.
Does anyone have any insight into the workings of the stock market that can explain these tiny transactions?
PLEASE ... don't anybody mention coded messages between traders. These days there are plenty of secure end to end messaging options that are far more effective than buying 1 share! If indeed that ever really happened.
Also Caravel are going to seek financing to build a mine, rather than sell, so their share price is significantly discounted on the basis it will be a long time to see value.
Just had a quick look at their annual report:
"The Company raised around $4.7M in a ($3.0M) placement and ($1.7M) rights issue to fund drilling, technical studies and project development activities. The Company continued to enjoy strong support from new and existing shareholders demonstrating confidence in the Company’s copper assets and a clear focus on progressing the project towards development"
"A major milestone was the delivery of a Pre-feasibility Study (PFS) and a maiden Ore Reserve Estimate for the
project in July 2022. The Ore Reserve (JORC 2012) is 583.4Mt at 0.24% copper for 1.42Mt contained copper (at 0.10% cut-off)"
Look at Caravel Minerals again, which we’ve often used as a benchmark here. Mcap AUS$92m, or about £50m. 5p in XTR terms, fully diluted. That’s for what - 1.4Mt Cu and $1.0bn NPV? So perhaps XTR would move to 5p plus 1-3p for African assets if similar figures were declared? Less any discount for a “CB factor”. As others have said, we just need a formal resource statement and value placed on it to get the next leg up.
Oliversydney, what do you expect CB to say when the company is deep in the modelling, working hard to confirm the size of the resources, possibly having off-the-record discussions with majors but unable to give any hints due to market rules? He has to stay quiet. Anyone who thinks this is because CB has lost faith in his own company or because it’s not worth shouting about is misunderstanding the situation. Or being mischievous.
Yep must admit Oliver I thought that was a bold statement for CB to make at the time, but I’m sure it was more wishful thinking than an educated view.
There is a certain irony about being bargain of the century back then, how much more of a bargain does it make it now the share price has drifted down, with odds on that most ‘investors’ are already positioned without decent funds available now, coming up to the silly season to grab the opportunity to average down.
Grrrr..
astute or lucky punters need not reply :-(
With Colins stocks you need to get in early and get out early. Probably the best way to manage to make a profit
It was not long ago he said XTR was bargain of the century when the share price was much higher. Also in an interview when the Russian Ukrainian conflict started he stated it would be over in two weeks which I distinctly remember. So I am now concluding he is all hot air which does not help as I have a large holding at a much higher price and really thought he was the real deal
It seems the next significant too good to miss once in a lifetime opportunity is commonplace in Colin World lol
Bird says today on Traders Cafe that the announcement for AFP is perhaps the most significant of his entire career. Similar SP as XTR yet could realistically hit 50p-100p+ if it was to come in and that could happen inside of 12 months.
Well, its related to Colin Bird, so probably African Pioneer is the best place to go. You are logged in to ADFN so probably best to use the Search facility.
Wrong chat kidda
'update from First Quantum looks very promising indeed, though still very early days.' have you got a link for that update?
"Is reporting of these results mandatory in any way, or does the company just choose to publish if they want to?"
They have to publish quarterly figures but they publish at a time that suits them, be it 2 weeks after period ends or 3 months after period ends.
If Q3 results are good (like last year) we will get them sooner than later.
I think we could be expecting to see Manica Q3 results anytime soon? They were reported on Oct 14 last year. Is reporting of these results mandatory in any way, or does the company just choose to publish if they want to? Reiterating the presence of what appears to be ongoing passive income should be a positive, as long as the rate of output is still on track to build to full production levels.
>>>we know a lot of Racecourse that was previously considered to be waste in the original conceptual pit model is now converted to ore……<<<
Particularly to the north eastern side where hole 17, which orientation was to the north east, away from the main defined resource. Incidentally, a hole that also intersected a deep zone of copper mineralisation that points to a further porphyry. Good value in that hole and one that the acquirer will certainly develop further to extend LOM far beyond the 20-25 yrs of the open pit, where these deeper systems will be easier to gain access to underground from and when pit is depleated.
Huge implications for future economics with all plant and infrastructure already paid for.
So the typical grades of porphyry deposits are in the region of 0.2cu+ down to .0.15. The quality of the ore is more than adequate at BR, with long runs of mineralisation in the hundreds of metres, but there are many other factors that will determine profitability potential and being open pitiable is the main one.
In most cases, the strip ratio is partially used to measure how profitable a deposit/project may be. A higher strip ratio generally translates to higher mining costs.
It is basically used as tool to determine open pit slope angle when mine planning, with the local geology determined. Geology determines the slope angle of course, with every extra degree of angle added to the slope of the pit wall due to the type of waste, it increases costs massively. So once the slope angle needed, is determined it gives you the strip ratio which is then used toward working out mining costs against anticipated copper price and ultimately if the mine is viable
Mining costs take into account the type of waste material, which we know a lot of Racecourse that was previously considered to be waste in the original conceptual pit model is now converted to ore as it was going to be mined anyway, so will have the potential to reduce the overall strip ratio in the new model. (which was already favourable) Mining costs also take into account the quality of the ore and the recovery rate at separation which metallurgy results have shown to have no issues at separation with 89-90% recovery rate. All in all determining the economic cut off grade which is expected to be 0.15%CuEq now.
To sum up it is hard to see where any nasty surprises will come from and with RC resource increase ‘estimate’ of 500mt@ 0.3Cu @ a cut off of 0.15Cu, up from 74mt @0.44Cu with 0.3 cut off. To what effect will economy of scale have on improving NPV?
I must admit I had a little deja vu with the first few minutes of that Midweek takeaway.
I wonder why.
"Yet the market believes the RNS of of another company he's at the driving wheel with. So much so that it jumps over 36% within the hour. How do you justify that".
Well the RNS from the other company (AFP) detailed an update provided by a credible partner. CB also then went on with Sunday Roast and suggested this £4m market cap company could potentially be worth hundreds of millions and in a relatively short time frame. So a 36% movement at £4m not actually that big. I do of course take everything CB says with a pinch of salt, but the update from First Quantum looks very promising indeed, though still very early days.
99% of potential investors have not heard of XTR. Only a small proportion of those with knowledge of XTR will have done the necessary research and some of those will have become bored and wandering away to the next shiny object.
You are also assuming that the current share price is related to the actual trading. If you monitor the individual trades and MM movements on level 2, you can see that the volume is minimal most days and its not unusual for the MMs take it down even on days with more buying than selling. XTR is in a holding pattern waiting for news with those in the know already taken their positions. The share price will move up once there is volume and that volume will only appear on significant news and a new buzz around the company.
“The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.” Warren Buffett