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Quick question lads.
Sell some just before the results or like Card hang on until they are announced this Friday am.
Can you let me know what you are both doing please so I can do the opposite! Ha ha
Oops - I clicked on ‘Post Message’ then before I had finished typing!
The Speedo reference is to me and my swimming (but in a wetsuit!) and the ‘manipulation’ is because I sold some of my Wrks yesterday to put back into Card after the massive drop.
Anyhow.
I still have what I consider a large holding in here and although a little confused at the market reaction to Cards results yesterday believe in Wrks and think the results next Friday are going to be good.
Ha ha You do make me laugh Smorty!
You guys have got to try open water swimming , it’s amazing.
Can’t advise on a read across from Card regarding freight , wages and utility costs, but can advise on the manipulation of the share price,
One is being manipulated by a well oiled finance company the other is being manipulated by a well oiled man wearing speedos.
Hope this helps in your decision.
Having a look at this pre-results next week. 12/11 trading update was positive but did mention impact from higher freight costs (although indicated they were mitigated through early ordering of stock). Anyone have a view on the read across from CARD today in terms of freight, wage and utility costs? I've been in and out of WRKS previously, and wondering if it is worth the risk coming back in again before next week. Thanks
Ha ha Carlost Well done perfect timing!
This will be back in the 60’s next week you have my word, well ok maybe not my word but ehhh my opinion!
They are always busy and the kids love those fidget finger things and jigsaws were really popular over lockdown.
They have not only spent a fortune fine tuning their website but also behind the scenes in procurement and supply.
Try it out.
Go on their website and see how easy and simple it is to get to the checkout ie a couple of clicks.
They were locked down for the same number of weeks as Card but came out over that period with a profit.
Good luck.
Hi Rox, I have to own up that I have now started shop stalking WRKS so yesterday I bought a modest holding. Fingers crossed it comes good :)
Hi lsetown
Whilst secret shopping CARD I couldn’t help but notice how busy WRKS was.
Further investigation showed that unlike CARD going into debt and breaching covenants WRKS came out of Covid in profit.
In addition they have spent a small fortune on their website which has gone from strength to strength.
CARD is riskier with potential big gains whereas WRKS is a nice safe 50%er from here.
All IMO of course and please do your own research!
Am following you around RoxburyHouse - lol.
This one I don't like that much because they don't appear to have made much profit in the past - and they have been going a long time. Why do you like it?
The interim results for H1 FY22 and an update on Christmas trading will be announced on Friday, 21 January 2022.
2 weeks this Friday.
Along with CARD I have ‘secret shopped’ WRKS almost daily for the last 6 months+.
I have paid particular attention to stock levels and have seen nothing that has concerned me.
No lockdowns since reopening in April/May makes me think IMO the next set of results are going to be very good.
i don't think the guidance accounts for higher inventory than usual or the trading profits - the £10m benefit quoted is from deferral of costs, esp rents. This will flow out for sure. They wouldn't assume inventory levels fall as that would also be a comment on the strength of xmas trading. In every second half in its history, cash levels have improved as that is where the bulk of profits is made. so my point is, cash will be considerably more than £8m at April 2022.
as for topline, we shouldnt annualise 17% growth-largely due to omicron and lower high st footfall and cancelled xmas gatherings. no doubt many aunts/uncles/cousins etc who were expecting to have a big Xmas party and need to buy pressies for little Jonny will now no longer do that. kids all over the country will miss out cos i doubt they'll get them late in January when we all realise omicron is nothing more than a cold and Xmas is a distant memory! the savings on xmas presents and travel costs/hotels is probably a meaningful number which means January should be better for leisure and retail names than usual i would guess
this is very much a one off factor and given the B/S, one Xmas trading is not really here nor there for the long term investor. having said that, a good xmas could make a several £m difference which given where we are, is 10% of the mkt cap!
key thing for the business is margin progression as better management get hold of this business. note that the hoped for direct sourcing strategy has not yet even started due to Covid. compared to a business like Dunelm which has far better Gross Margin %, WRKS is pretty much totally reliant on wholesalers rather than direct sourcing.
get the margin up and we will get a huge rerating as the business will be less operationally geared and more reliable. with any lucky they do have the pricing power to pass on input price inflation that they are facing
there is some staycation benefit in H1 which won't be there next year but I do think this is a transformed business that is on the front foot. this first half just done had barely any lockdown benefit either so that augurs well - we are not 'a covid play'
Does anyone have a revenue estimate for the full year? Should we annualize the 17-ish% growth from the first half of the year or is that too much/ too little?
Given the high fixed costs, any small variation in the topline will produce massively different numbers in the bottom line.
Does anyone here live near a The Works store? Are they full or empty?
Cheers
Hi investhome, when you say that the cash should grow "as the stock they've bought pre Xmas gets sold", shouldn't the company's guidance for £8M already account for that?
Cheers
Approx 0.8% of MC, perhaps Hoyle is buying the wife a new watch for Christmas?, RNS would be helpful.
Anybody notice this transaction from yesterday that slipped in at close of play today?
08-Dec-21 15:39:24 55.00 500,000 Unknown* 275.00k
Hard to say if it was a buy or sell but my guess purely based on the fact that the share price jumped higher yesterday that it was a buy?
Thoughts anybody?
IMHO the company has done amazingly to hold forecasts steady despite a £3m headwind from freight. The house broker Investec forecasts were for £6.2m of profit before tax so we are talking about a 50% of PBT unexpected cost hit which has been dealt with thanks to strong sales online and offline. Anyone expecting an upgrade this time was on cloud cuckoo land given the dependance on Xmas and the conservative, newish management
Assuming strong trading continues they should easily beat forecasts thus delivering say £8m of PBT and 10p of EPS
keen eyes will also note that the cash of 8m (the £17.8 less than £10m that will flow out they say) should grow given they always generate cash in the second half as the stock they've bought pre Xmas gets sold.
so come April they should have c £10-12m in cash vs today £38m mkt cap and be generating 10p of EPS plus potentially another 3p as supernormal freight costs unwind
small independant toy and bookshops will probably be struggling to get stock and two near me have closed in recent months
all in all,looking very cheap and this "popit" fidget toy trend should have further to go. one kid in my son's class has got 40! it drives footfall and people might spend a couple of quid on a toy but also buy some books and stationery
there's also material rent savings to come over time as the company has a load of lease expiries every year as the estate is young
I think its risky to be too diversified in High Street retail. So think I will sell my Wrks shares and lump a bit more on Shoe as the transformation they are doing with the Bog Box, the recent RNS and announcement of profits plus the news about the reinstatement of the dividend much earlier than expected sends signals to me that Shoe will more likely double up from here than Wrks (or at least sooner). Will put the rest on Card F as my second play for 2022 an be glued to the Card F thread to hear your articulate field reports on the Card stores near you .. Ha Ha
Shoe Zone, Wrks, Inmode and AMD were my most confident picks from last year as I invested a lot of time researching these 4 and then backing it with money of course. The Wrks seems the slow burner out of my 4 so thinking of taking profit soon and then plough it all into CARD (that is my pick for this year as well as Tullow Oil) Card F has more than a double potential as I think it may be a while before we see a £1 with the Wrks so it may be the better investment for 2022. Will wait for a few weeks and then see if the price of Wrks moves up like Shoe has since its RNS, if it doesn't, then I will move into Card - although I have currently about £12K in CARD - but I may go much big.
Sod it, I know I should have bought these but bought Saga instead. Who's the guy that sits in the air above you and just waits for you to make a move then does the reverse just to p*** you off.
I got in a smidgen under 55p jedclampit and just can’t see them going any lower which obviously means they will.
Jokes aside though we are now in the second week of November for what is going to be their (and Cards) busiest 2 months of the year and that RNS was really good!
Hi PurpleInvestor still can’t get over your ShoeZone - wish I’d listened to you!
Honestly mate there wasn’t (and still isn’t?) any bug ger in their shop when I pass by?
Yeah yeah I totally get it’s because of their on line sales and I did notice their reviews are very good but to double? and just after I sold ffs lol.
Well done!
Yes I’m happy with my Card investment but couldn’t resist a little short term dabble over here.
Lol .Your beloved card will also prosper soon Rox
Yes all looking good , I would buy some of these if the spread comes down a bit as looking to get in about 50p ish then I am sure I can make a few bob.
"It's particularly pleasing to see that whilst our online sales continue to run at almost double their pre-pandemic levels, store sales are also growing."
Sounds good to me, I'm certainly not selling at these levels
Swung 10 grand of my beloved CARD back into this this morning. Couldn’t resist.
That was a great RNS.