The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
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WiganWarriors. Predictably, the DUP appear to be digging in their heels already. I wish they could be bypassed, but the numbers just aren't there to get a deal through without their support, as Theresa May found to her cost. And if the DUP aren't playing, you can be sure the provisional wing of the Conservative Party (the ERG) won't be far behind.
Hopefully, next Saturday's Commons sitting will get behind a Brexit poll (No-deal, May Plan or rescind Article 50). Now that the electorate are better educated on matters Brexit, I think their informed decision would give MPs enough clarity to proceed.
Correction: May/Boris Plan
Hi RR
Think all going according to Plan. Massive Sp drop next week as Deal seems to become impossible, followed by Revoke article 50 (one way or another!) and subsequent Surge to my target price 263.
Electorate better educated? Just by the lying Press and Politicians. Think they should bring down the age of voting to 10 (cos its their future) and upper age limit to 50. Nobody seems to believe the experts any more, and their own opinions are equally valid. No respect any more.
Great for me, over 50% Float in cash. Intend do invest bit less than half remaining Float in bwy on Monday, prior their FinRes on Tuesday.
Very bumpy road but hope I've got my timing a bit better this time.
Hi Troubles
Never said whose Plan, who knows?
BoL
Ps
Intend to Invest (not do) - about time spell checker figured out context.
When you have no respect for your teachers, you lose belief in everything, so your ideas are equal. The fact that they will probably have a degree doesn't matter much if everyone has a degree, in the new order.
Looking forward to a bit of Zen (or Tao) Troubles.
BoL
Hi Nige,
The wise man is the one who knows what he doesn't know.
Blame game continues but it's always the ones with the dirty hands pointing the fingers.
BoL
Hi Nige
think you could be right this could be back to 145 next week if things don't go right for BJ be interesting to see if we can hold 163 tomorrow let's hope they sort this mess out soon
Just a few more things to chew over for next week:
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-global-markets-themes-graphic/take-five-market-themes-for-the-week-ahead-time-to-talk-idUKKBN1WQ1T
BJ won't 'suffer' whatever happens.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-global-markets-themes-graphic/take-five-market-themes-for-the-week-ahead-time-to-talk-idUKKBN1WQ1TS
Apologies, was not copied properly.
Graham hi,
Yes you could be right. Not a lot of mention to those 3 X 1 Million pound sells late Friday ?????? They may have thought the same.
Keep well and lets hope for a hold or rise tomorrow ?
ATB
Tom :-)
Troubles hi, out of interest,
In your opinion do you think we will uphold the 1.60's tomorrow or do you think with the latest we will fall back to the 145's.
The reason I ask is that I have put a 25% sell limit at 1.65 for tomorrow morning thinking it will fall back, then buy back on the fall. Maybe those late Friday sells thought the same. Its just a gamble on my part so not meant for others to follow !!!!!!!!
Very wet here today so off to the Village for a nice pint or two.
ATB
Tom :-)))
My guess is that, after Friday's euphoria, we'll see a pretty hard 'correction' on opening tomorrow, followed by ups and downs throughout the week, according to the tone of leaks coming from the negotiations.
Of course, this is only relevant if you're a trader (gambler). Looking to the longer-term, Britain's housing shortage shows no sign of abating and the house building sector is going to be a pretty safe bet for the next 20 years and beyond. I even think that when help-to-buy expires, it will be replaced by a similar government incentive. Hang on to your TW shares, keep reinvesting the divis and in 5 years' time you'll be in clover.
Hi Tom, tomorrows "official" opening price is 163.75, as set by the closing auction. So if you set at 165 to sell, and the SP does fall straight away then your order is unlikely to be executed. Also, if any significant news flow occurs over the weekend, then you should expect "gapping" to occur, in which case if you are dealing through a retail broker don't hold your breath as your order won't be at the front of the queue. IMHO, if you set to sell at 165 then if it gaps down you won't execute, and if it gaps up then it will, but I don't think that was your intention.
As for the "late" sales, they are likely just late bookings of transaction that occurred earlier in the day. Therefore they are measured against the closing auction price which means you have no idea whether they were actually sales or buys as they occurred earlier when the SP was different.
Finally, I closed out a large(ish) SB position at 1625(ish) hrs without any problems and it completed at the normal discount to the cash market. So that tells me there was no selling pressure at close. IMHO, Mondays open will depend on this weekend news flow, and if nothing untoward then I reckon Monday might be another steady / good day for builders.
Hi Tom,
Should know by tomorrow whether an agreement is possible - might have to wait for the Queens speech but not sure of the time - think our SP may hold up till then. Without the £39 billion or so, not sure how the figures will stack up.
Just read this article:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/13/donald-trump-ukraine-turkey-impeachment
Trump Towers Istanbul - xenophobe in public and international mobster in private.
Hi all don’t take this as boasting but Friday evening I got a call of somebody I used to work for and they offered me rates 10% more than I am on now. So it seems to me the house builders are not concerned! Gla
Hi Ben
Well done, nice to be wanted but could you explain to me what this thing called "work" is?
ATB:))
Hi bamps
How’s your weekend going hope it’s good.
On the gfrd front asked On site what’s happening on take over front. He told me seems to be going through , but I am still not sure it’s a good deal for us! But see what comes of it! Ps work hurts need weekends to recover now ??enjoy and god bless
Hi Ben
I couldn't be a bricklayer, bending over all day i would be stuck like it.
I'm not sure whether the Gfrd deal is good for the company or the shareholders, there must be another reason the Board want it to go ahead
I'm still surprised no more approaches have been received
Have a good week don't work too hard, unless it's for Tw then work harder :))
Hi Troubles
Latest Brexit plan not looking too good. Think Deal only possible if extension, and BoJo can hardly do that.
Plan still on schedule, I expect big losses this week, so most Float in Cash but topping up float in bwy tomorrow for FinRes (Tuesday). At the moment timing is critical but so chaotic difficult to achieve. If No Deal market thinks 140 ish, if Deal 160 ish, if No Brexit 256 according to my calcs.
As I said before, regardless of Brexit, Trump, Kim Il Dung or whatever, tw worth 256 now. How long it takes to reach 256 depends on type of Brexit (or not), by which time it will be worth more than 256 cos still increasing Eps and 256 based on undervalued Pre Brexit Per's. Things looking good.
Just made 6.63% on Bdev Divi at my av of 555 and sold Float at 650 = 17.12%. So almost 24%.
Not too sure of my calcs here cos my Float av (which I sold) was more like 610 so made less than 17% on Sell. Reworking system to show P/L on every buy. Base Av now back to 380, which is nice.
BoL
Hi Bamps
I think gfrd need cash and bvs got it. I watch them both but hold no shares in either. if bvs buys Linden? then gfrd off my watch list, bvs remains but don't invest there cos LSE. No doubt things will change for LSE, but it will take time and could get worse.
Buggered up my back as well (around XMas), but I think it is improving a bit - used to play front row but survived that OK, it was my knee that stopped me playing.
Great World Cup, love the Brave Blossoms their attitude, speed, handling, but unfortunately I think SA will be too strong for them, and will have adjusted their plan to play them. Hope I am wrong again.
BoL
I don't believe we can have a no deal brexit. The law says its either a deal, or an extension.
Morning all and thanks for your replies.
I am waiting to see if I have made a mistake or not, but it was a pure gamble in attempts to reduce my paper loss ATM. I will tell you if it went through or not. I do not mind if it does not as you all know I am a LTH here.
Have a good week all and thanks again.
ATB
Tom :-)))
Hi Nige
Japan have been a breath of fresh air for Rugby. I used to be on the wing, very skinny and quick. Very short sighted when I got the ball I wouldn't let it go as I would never see it again :))
As for Gfrd they produce more profits and houses than Bovis. First deal rejected £950m in Bovis shares, second deal £650 in Bovis shares , £300m in cash and £100m debt paid accepted.
They don't need this deal
Shares I'm pleased with last few weeks Marshalls powering on, JLP an ugly duck turning into a swan based on forward earnings should be 6p 2020 and 14p 2021 .
ATB:))
Well plan 'A' didn't work, so cancelled the limit. Await now to see what happens today. The SP is still over 160 so still may have a small chance of a quick sell in hope's for a cheaper buy back. My plan was to see a spike this morning ( 165+) after the nice Friday rise then a fall back to the high 140's but that did not work for me. Better really as I am up and at em now after a good nights sleep.
GLA
Tom :-)
Hi Tom
I see your company namesake near the top of the riser board:))