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If you are right implies about 12p profit which means PE up to 5 and explains share price that was anticipating? Finals date stil tbc, never greatest sign….
My expected final divi as mentioned on 17th Oct is 2.50-2.75 cents but Moneyman/SeaTank put out a good discussion for more.
Hopefully we will find out by Monday next week.
Any expectations as to the FY dividend?
Results date TBC as per website, just wrapping up consolidation of group accounts, will have preso of course, would not trust any other site for dates most of them use an algorithm to work out y-2-y what dates results will be
Tharisa website calendar had Thurs 30th Nov as the release date a couple of weeks ago which is likely where Alliance News got their date from. Website was then changed to 4th Dec and now changed to TBC sometime this week. Alliance News haven't updated their list and they often do quote wrong dates. Always best to get this info from the company calendar or an RNS rather than a third party news service.
https://www.tharisa.com/investor-calendar.php
Sotolo, I have just looked on the Tharisa website (Investors-Investors Calendar) and it is still says TBC FY 2023 Financials.
Just to show how uncertain it is to calculate the uptake of EV cars and the reduction in PGM demand for catalytic convertors , in March the UK Office for Budgetary Responsibility was using a forecast for EV share of new car sales in 2027 of 67% but yesterday reduced this to just 38%!
When I looked on THS investors website investors section just now said 4th Dec but maybe says something else elsewhere? Chrome coming back a bit, but should at least have given us decent profits this year making up for some of the PGM tumble for now
The Tharisa website had been showing the FY results as out on 4th December but the share news today says Thursday 28th Nov and the Tharisa website says "TBC". Hopefully that means good news!
Karo is becoming a complete disaster and a noose around the company’s neck as PGM prices continue to dive -it seems to have been commenced following the “PGM bubble” post Covid.
What a shame profits are not being used to boast dividends,buyback shares and increase chrome production -(where longterm market indicators are favourable)-unless PGMs recover Karo appears to be no longer worth investing in-(palladium seems a spent item as electric vehicles replace ice vehicles and despite apparent large deficit in platinium supply the price shows no sign of recovering)
Interestingly with falling rh, and SLP greater dependence on it, their basket has actually fallen below ours, I make us just over $1400 SLP just under
Weekly PGM basket on THS website today
Tharisa mine $1355
Karo Mine $1244
Last week $1453 and $1272
The reason Karo moves less is that it is much less exposed to rhodium, which is just 14% of its basket, interestingly gold is also 14% of the Karo basket. However Karo at these prices is really a platinum and palladium mine with a bit of rhodium and gold
Chromium is just a tiny bit down, staying essentially flat
So this is the beginning of reduction in PGM output along with Karo delay etc. Hopefully the appalling prices will mean more than enough mine closures to level with the reduction of PGM use. I had my new EV delivered today, one less CAT, and our chromium will make us one of the survivors.
Low pgm prices forces a rethink at Sibanye, possible job losses and the need to increase efficiency due to low prices.
https://www.miningweekly.com/article/more-than-4-000-jobs-on-the-line-as-sibanye-considers-future-of-four-south-african-pgm-shafts-2023-10-25
Well I spoke a bit too soon, back near $1400 let’s hope a pullback and not a false dawn. Chromium stil staying flat and money must be rolling in at these prices
Rh has already risen further today on JMAT as has iridium making the basket over $1500 on their figures for first time in a while
Last night close calc
Tharisa Basket Price
Platinum $895.00
Palladium $1 133.50
Rhodium $4 662.08
Gold $1 925.83
Ruth $396.47
Iridium $4 660.20
Karo USD $1 263.46
Tharisa USD $1 423.36
Tharisa ZAR R26 675.53
On JM figures basket is back near $1500 which is much better for Tharisa mine, however Karo being rh lighter, is still under $1300 tho improving
According to Johnson matthey rhodium now upto $5400 -hopefully Tharisa will benefit from the rise-
Sorry should read “no reason not to stick to a final dividend of 4c”
Thanks Mike -I think the actual dividend policy is to pay out a “minimum of 15% net profit after tax” so I don’t think there is any good reason to stick to a final dividend of 4c bearing in mind
1-the total of 7c dividend for the year would only represent approx 20% of NPAT assuming the figure circa $100 million
2-the large net cash balance of circa $125 million
3-the negative message that a dividend cut gives to the market.
4- the capital cost of Karo being spread over a longer period
Moneyman/Seatank, I like your style but the Company has its stated payout policy which Is pretty clear and the PE is actually better now than it was 12 months ago.
Likewise I understand your comment about mothballing Karo but this is not a decision to be taken lightly given the other stakeholders involved. As I have said before let us wait for the updated Karo resource statement which will influence the decision either way.
Agree, cutting dividend sends a terrible message and will result in further selling, so should only be considered if absolutely necessary. I don't see how it could be justified. I'd rather see Karo mothballed, frankly. Anyway, I'm pretty confident this won't happen so let's be a little more positive. Reasonable results today given the circumstances.
Thanks Mike -I have similar profit figures to you -however I think it would be very shortsighted/stingy to cut the dividend bearing in mind the net cash position of £100 million plus and the delayed capital expenditure in relation to Karo -the last thing the company will want is yet more knocked of the shareprice as a result of a cut dividend ..A total dividend of 7 cents would still be only represent approx 20% of the net profit for the year
The difference between a final dividend of 4cents and 2.75 cents is $3.75 million representing just 3% of the net cash in dollars
PGM production for the year slightly lower than I had expected although chrome slightly higher than I had expected. Reef milled the lowest for 3 years and reef mined as I expected, the lowest since 2015! Excellent news on net cash. I echo the sentiment that the delay on Karo is the right call and buys us some time.
My guestimate for FY 2023 is PBT $137m, PAT $103m, attributable to shareholders 97%, EPS 17 cents, total divi 5.65 cents so final divi 2.50 or 2.75 cents. Current PE 2.2.
The production guidance for 2024 is disappointing but understandable given that ROM stocks have been run down and that waste stripping will continue and presumably poor PGM recoveries will continue. Based on current prices, for 2024 I expect PBT of $105m and PAT $$78 m and chrome contributing 75% of turnover.