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Seems to be doing a Serica pre-Mercuria mcap implosion… hmmm
Now I like to invest and back my judgement about the future of things. In normal circumstance I would be hoovering up some KIST, JOG and SQZ shares given the current weakness. My share ISA allowance is long since exhausted so would have to trade in my Barclays marketmaster account. Given the capital allowance is being reduced to £6K where is movitation for me, high risk investments and should there be a profit a large portion will be pocketed by HMRC. This is not a conservative government rather socialist and is sucking the life blood from our country. Sorry to go off topic but feeling hacked off this morning! I feel that any motive for me to invest has been removed.
I just hope that Serica Energy has not been caught up in some kind of transgenes bill. G.d forbid next their be some American telling us how to act???.
Still we still have j bond or aust..n pwrs to to help us.
Did you have your your little flutter on SYN? Don't kick yourself too hard.
Hi NewKOTB
Gov knee-jerk response to the energy crisis has ensured the UK is now one of the most unstable economies for O&G investments, just think about that for a moment !======================
"Knee-jerk response" imo is a forgiving and polite way to excuse every Gov. mischief and day light robbery, been going on since almost ever.
Is the same story in every Western country you look at...now definitely also in UK.
I am under the impression that since Brexit, UK Gov. has become more bold in allowing transferring of cash from the poor to the rich, they don't stop not even if is a matter of national security and energy independence.
This can only end up in one way, civil unrest.....Mind you they have the best socioeconomic psychologist as civil servants working fort them, to make sure we get screwed up slowly slowly....
What a short sighted way to live......
LL,
Yes, indeed so ....
NBP is just twice that of the historic average and Brent is some 25% off last 2022 Q1's atm. More NS players are publicly coming out against the WFT, with Ping being the latest and the likes of HBR have been vocal for some time now. Also, Apache just cancelled drilling contracts, so even off-setting of drilling cost is still not enough for some. Added to which, I guess we will not see many 'hacks' or headline news reporting on O&G profits warnings and poor results with revenue crashing in coming months as quarterly / half yearly results for YoY start surfacing. Remember WFT only came into effect end of May 2022, so Q1 2022 and most of Q2 would have been WFT free. Gov knee-jerk response to the energy crisis has ensured the UK is now one of the most unstable economies for O&G investments, just think about that for a moment !
Brent ;
Q1 2022 : $102
Q1 2023 to-date : $82
NBP
Q1 2022 : 232p/therm
Q1 2023 to-date : 145p/therm
Something has to change, although I fear little will.
As for SQZ, one good to come out of the TW deal, SQZ will show substantial growth YoY 2023 vs 2022
aimo & dyor
Sorry if a bit out of topic
but a similar situation imv is developing for household gas and energy prices, where the Gov. is allowing energy providers to charge extorsion prices even if recently energy and gas prices have come down.
I am on a tracker tariff with Octopus energy, tracker my @rse....KWh price has remain at the higher level for months even is wholesale prices have come down. Thing is they have allowed (the Gov.) to create an energy providers cartel, where is not possible to switch to another provider....
I suppose is another way for the Gov. to milk tax revenue out of people and blame someone else.
I wonder if some minister are also getting extra benefits out of this sorrow situation.....
NormaStits
Yes it will it is just taking a little longer.After all rates have risen quite quickly . Don't forget we are still due another rate hike. Any way off for a sex change to escape any fall out from past postings on this bb. May even change my colour in process.
Banburyboy
Why oh why have you now sold a third. Remember you ounced called on me to be part of the vote against. Which still I am,but why post that you have sold a third of your holding.
Like you pretty annoying that the company went for nsea assets with the hostility with current hmg. Not sure which war they and the side they are actually on???
atrm2. History always has a habit of repeating itself. I still believe that there is leader out there with integrity/strong will and above all intelligence in spite of the lot that are now governing our country . Let alone the opposition who resemble uni p.t smoking. h.p.i.es pontificating about an ideal world without understanding the full consciquences.
Would be a nice thought upomega. Though PI's invested in North Sea will be last to find out, if SP going by last year anything to go by with market knowing WF tax was going to be introduced and all the while Sunak as chancellor denying any intentions. Banana State and now he's PM.
Maybe hmg has indicated that they will cut the wft asap. Now that would be a nice thought. After all there are thousands of jobs to consider. Let alone how Serica are rapidly reducing carbon emissions and the carbon footprint. Unlike the idiotic policy of importing LNG via tankers and not forgetting subsidising the exporters due to their tax being lower.
Considering a buy if goes much lower for a trade. Still can't understand why Mitch Flegg doubled up on North Sea with such a hostile tax regime.
Ok, with you on the ‘big reveal’ BB….it will just be revealed over an extended period of time. Like 3 years or so.
Sorry you have cut your holding, but no regrets. Good luck with HBR.
Maybe your disposal is what I am very close to buying as I hover over the buy button. IMHO, risk will further sell off in the short term so will accrue more into/through a possible sell-off. Once this market down leg is done, I suspect we have grounds for a sustained upturn in equities and risk appetite.
Upomega - UK pension funds will not be net buyers of domestic equities, regardless.
Dick 100% agree your fear.
The elephant in the room is why do Hardys etc vote yes.
That's why I beleivebyou may be wrong as it's Turkeys voting for Xmas.
I still ascribe to the big reveal theory (sorry Norma) and new KOTB could be right that they have lined up a majors NS assets at a knockdown price.
Chances of a white Knight offering us £3.50 a share look more or less dead now.
I sold a third of my holding yesterday and brought HBR. That just feels safer to me as I think results will be good divy and buy backs. With SQZ I'm not even sure we have a results date and what the plan is aside from a 1.5m package for MF:)
It doesn't really matter what MPs think. Most senior cabinet ministers are on the same side as Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves who would like to see an immediate end to oil and gas, regardless of consequences for the UK.
Both oil and gas prices are level's of Nov 2021. So how can the the government justify this tax rate. Surely U.K producer's are in contact with hmg over this small matter. Surely there are some MP,s on the side of UK producer's.
Let's also hope that they substantially increase the dividends to compensate for the dire share price. Better still pay a special dividend,before the government grabs the lot.
As I say - I hope you're right.
Next step? MF's package increases to £1.5m pa?
dyor
Agree that risk is there as you have long stated, dick. I also recall your demand for the poison pill and ACW brushing that off. I am not sure those pills are so common these days, but wholly empathise with your desire to insert protection.
I don’t see the same cap as you. I believe that accumulating value in the combination will be reflected in the share price…along with the multiple other factors that will drive the price, for better or worse. However, your fear is a valid one and not an impossible outcome - I just don’t see it on the balance of probabilities.
NS - the elephant in the room is whether Mercuria decides 18 months+ after the deal is signed that it would rather like to have everything for itself and tables a bid at a price shareholders like us can't refuse but only because there will be no viable alternative unless we want to end up as totally insignificant minorities in a company whose shares aren't traded on any recognised exchange. Mercuria will in practical terms be able to block any counter bid/s by virtue of owning 28.2% of the stock.
There was a commonly used way to avoid this possibility (the inclusion of a "poison pill" clause in the S&P agreement) which I pointed out to ACW. He chose not to address it in his response to my letter, basically just saying he was a significant holder so why would he put his money at risk if the deal wasn't good for existing holders.
Seems possible to me the market will use 278p as a cap for the foreseeable and I guess this isn't likely to change a great deal with the threat of being taken out at market value (plus a derisory mark up) 18 months plus down the road hanging over proceedings.
Just my thoughts based partly on gut feel and the rest on experience. I'll be happy to be proved wrong.
dyor
If only, dick. The ‘see everything’ bit rather than the admiration aspect. One neither seeks nor expects the latter. However, I maintain a hope and expectation that this company can deliver more than the majority expected from this transaction. Of course, what shareholders receive will be subject to many unknowns, not least the random policies of those that are elected to govern us.
We already know you see everything, NS. We ordinary mortals can only look on in admiration................
Some do….;-)
In a rational world, intrinsic value would matter. In the current climate for oil and gas companies, with punishing taxation, uncertainty about future taxation, delusional net zero groupthink and growing geopolitical risks, it’s almost irrelevant.