Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Take a look at the outrage at Centricas profits, Ed Miliband calling for a proper WFT (whatever that is), the current government may say they are not going to increase WTF but does this include keeping allowances. However a mute point when Labour get in, unfortunate any Oil and Gas assets in the UK will become close to worthless. Perhaps this deal has some hidden value but the huge risks are far from hidden.
Banbury boy - I did indeed read your post counting as you did. I wrote my post. It is 2023 and many of the self-righteous have manoeuvred their talent-sets to policing social media. I edited my post. I also continue to hold in hope.
Beautifully summed up Sasa.
I'm actually quite hopeful.
What I argue perpetually with Norma (one of the two) is based on what was publicly available the deal was awful.
There must be something we don't know which tipped the balance for the big PIs but none of us know what !!
Agreed, Banburyboy (was about to post the same about the views on here re: the expensive 'deal' terms which were overwhelmingly negative about it) so what might the 'big boys' who assented to it, been made privy to, that us ordinary Pi's were not?
I liked NewK's posts on the 3rd Feb about the possibilities of a 'grand plan' which might explain it in lending credence to what / why Serica agreed to it, especially the 28% stake in the combo that Mercuria will end up with which was very controversial to say the least!
Perhaps, a pleasant outcome will ultimately transpire as you / we all hope that our initial views on it will prove misguided due to insufficient awareness of the 'raison detre' for it - sasa.
Tony "copium of posters who backed it" !
I conducted a detailed headcount 2 posters were in favour 37 against.
The vast majority shared your view.
Onwards and upwards and hopefully we will be proved wrong.
On a happier note a week ago hmg has stated that there will not be an increase in wft.
Let's hope that they abide by this and better still put this into legislative law. In other words stopping the next parliament overturning this.
Over the last few days, the good old unions have spilled over into the offshore arena, with more demands for pay rises and potential strikes hitting a number of facilities offshore.
So we cripple second tier companies financially and then expect them to negotiate a settlement with their offshore workforce. Shell and BP will negotiate from a position of strength, with the pain being negligible as usual. Mr Putin would love our lights to go out - perhaps "we" are going to do it for him.
KIST over the past few sessions have been under the cosh .... if Mercuria wants KIST ( or anyone else for that matter) they will play the SP down until they get the price they want ..... still 2-6 weeks before Mercuria have 'control', until then we wait !!!
On the plus-side, Mercuria will have the power, not just financial, to get the best deals they can for Serica / themselves.
PS. Don't think AA will Ben Dover as easily as our BoD and offer himself for the taking.
aimo & dyor
On the cards??
Paints not quite dry! Still have a significant holding here and I am trying to keeping back my conspiracy theories. In the mean time I genuinely think there's still opportunity in SYN who's boss is in India trying to do a deal, little to lose potentially big gains. It has risen 45% in the past 5 days but still has a way to go I believe if he pulls off a deal.
Well, several weeks on and no sign of the market taking the same view of this deal as Mitch and the teen-age analysts at the institutional investors who listened to Mitch and then advised their bosses to vote in favor. Even the 320p values of November look like an unlikely exit possibility at this stage for those of us wanting out. Mind the copium of posters here who backed it acts to offset my self annoyance at not walking away when I knew I should have.
Come on Patrick. SQZ is like your mistress; just can’t stay away due to her mysterious charms…
Hope you bought your SYN and IOG
I am still here for some reason watching paint dry. It's interesting that a company like ESNT have debt, but just sold a business and are handing out a massive ~12.9% divi next month on top of a share buyback, Mitch take a note please!
Will be a significant swing in notifiable interests and 'control' of Serica come completion ....
Of all the currently notifiable, only the Hardys and Blackrock will survive above 3% !
How it will look post completion :
Mercuria 25.2%
Hardys 6.4%
Blackrock 3.9%
Tailwind Founders 3.7%
Current : https://www.serica-energy.com/shareholder-information
aimo & dyor
translation " On the positive side,
We will soon have a private equity company on board that will hopefully add value. I hope that we will be sold once the deal is closed. Four pounds would be nice, but anything over three pounds by May would suit me."
Auf der positiven Seite,
Wir werden in Kürze eine Private-Equity-Gesellschaft an Bord haben, die hoffentlich einen Mehrwert bringen wird. Ich hoffe, dass wir verkauft werden, sobald der Deal abgeschlossen ist. Vier Pfund wären nett, aber alles über drei Pfund bis Mai würde mir passen.
I dont think it is now so much to do with the deal, but what HMG and the next government could do with taxes. Inmv the problem is that we are over exposed in the UK. The government could quite easily hit us with a further ten percent and even withdraw tax incentives to invest. All this would be them trying go after the majors, but unfortuantly it would have little effect on them ,but untold damage to companies such as Serica.
Seems to mean lower share price here. I thought now that we have more oil it shouldn't be like that?
https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1624085597609512961
Blackrock up their holding too....
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/SQZ/holdings-in-company-ygvudi7nlyud3ev.html
I’ll certainly take that BattleFIS. I see a lot of value here but was trying to be modest. I like your style. I have been adding over the past week until yesterday’s move.
Good weekend too!
Banburyboy, Norma
"Get to £3.50 and the jury's out £4 plus and you can say I told you so."
That's selling us too short!
I'll go for:
worth c. £4.10 now (assumed £4.50 pre-deal).
So, by end 2023, with a 12% nominal cost of equity, let's say £4.60 by the end of the 2023 before Norma you can crow.
(Actually, retained FCF could, or perhaps should be well north of 12% IF gas and oil prices stay high).
In any case, lots of other variables obviously, although Norma that is your bar (!!).
...and of course I wouldn't mind that, so good luck!
Have a good weekend all ))
Indeed, BB! That is what we all want and hope for.
Norma apologies replace less than zero with zero.
Not much of a compliment but bad slip on the "less" .
Onward and upward !
Hello Banbury. I offered negative analysis? Don’t recall that. To be honest, I read what was provided, talked to a few people, thought about it and made my mind up. I didn’t do any real analysis in that sense. Tempting to build a proprietary model, but one cannot share those on here. There will be no ‘told you so’ from me, if this ends well. Maybe a little teasing, but nothing malicious. If those that disliked the deal stick with their ownership and it all comes good, I will be delighted for all. I certainly do not, and hope I did not show, disrespect to those that had a different view from me. Unless provoked…
I maintain that a few folks became unhinged (not aimed at anyone specifically) about the whole thing and didn’t step back and think through it. Talk of collusion, backhanders, insider info, etc. Some only saw what they wanted to and exhibited massive confirmatory bias. Not unusual. One of many investor heuristics, seen time and time again.
Good luck, see you around. Especially after £3.50 (TSR) ;-)