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I was expecting the news to be released post Court case hearing, do we know when we should be expecting this.
Also NCM locking period is ending in August.
NCM locking period ends October 17th
"BHP and Newcrest. BHP cannot acquire any interest in Cornerstone without SolGold's approval before October 16, 2020. Similarly, pursuant to its 2016 subscription agreement with SolGold, Newcrest will not be permitted to acquire shares in Cornerstone before 17 October 2019"
Mog, unless there's an offer for solg ,that would make that agreement void allowing whoever makes an offer for solg free to buy up cgp shares in cascabel aswell
I am not sure anyone can make an offer for Solgold, as they would need to acquire BHP, Newcrest and Cornerstones shares, not to mention Nm's holdings. Which they would not let go of, unless they got an above market place offer. Not going to happen. Sorry everyone we are in for the long haul.
Quads
I believe NCM or BHP will start the bidding war
Nick will use his holding as a leverage to obtain best price.
Money talks and the Chinese have limitless funds.
Only a question of time.
Q
Based on the evidence laid down by Cornerstone, they are willing to let the 15% of ENSA go for fare value, and by assumption they also hold 10% of SOLG, which i assume they will let go at a fare value, so why can't this happen
Towards the end of October NCM acquire the 15% of ENSA held by Cornerstone and also purchase the 10% of solg shares held by Cornerstone as well, this would give Newcrest 25% of SOLG plus the 15% of ENSA
The end goal would be that NCM acquire 50% of ENSA a long with BHP owning the other 50%
I think this is the only short term exit for SOLG from ENSA, otherwise we have to take it to production as no other company has shown a hand to go after Cornerstone after SOLG "intention" to acquire Cornerstone
Good afternoon Qualibashi, you may be right. I have not heard the Chinese are looking at this, but my point is how would NCM or BHP bid for control. They have agreements not to. NCM, have first right to bid, at the end of the year, and if this happens BHP are released from their obligation, and can counter bid. That's why I don't think NCM will bid. They don't want a counter bid from BHP. So I see this going to October 2020, and then we may get some action. But I believe by then that the BFS will provide us with the direction to go, and the funding to go to production, will be settled. Think we will hover between 25p and 50p, before a bid is made. I don't believe the majors are in any hurry.
Agree, the only way NC will bid is if they have been tipped off that BHP will fold. Otherwise BHP with their much greater firepower may well take out NC as well as Solgold!
On the other hand NC, with so much interesting stuff going on at home in the Pilbara, may choose to concentrate on that and give BHP the green light here.
Even big companies have to prioritise sometimes.
Good afternoon Jerryspaniel, one thing I am unclear on, is the Cornerstone situation. I believe that NCM can bid for Cornerstone at the end of the year. Am I correct in saying if they bid for Cornerstone, this does not release BHP to table a counter offer. Or does a cornerstone bid release BHP to bid. Also would they be able to table a bid for Solgold, as a whole. If that Scenario develops.
I think Sandeep Biswas is on record as saying that Cascabel is big enough for both NCM and BHP, so it can clearly be seen that a 50/50 split on ownership is on the cards
Hi Quady. If memory serves me the lockup includes Cornerstone, so any bid for that would release BHP from their lockup.
Most 'professionals' (fund managers who are invested) that I have spoken to believe its 'certain' that Solgold and/or Cascabel will be taken out by a consortium that will include, at the very least BHP and NC. I think they need each other for different reasons.
My strong preference is that as an alternative to Solgolds demise, NM can persuade the big boys to just take Cascabel and not the whole thing....
Jerry, I agree. However, I think any bidder will want the rest as well; the reason being that they'll be able to pick-up the rest for relatively little outlay. NM will want to achieve as high a value as possible for Cascabel, but the quid pro quo will be throwing in the rest for not much.
I'd prefer the "prove it and flog it it" model and hope we can achieve it, but I'm doubtful that we will.
If we stick a pin or two in one of the new sites over the next 6 months and the results are encouraging, I think you can kiss 25p goodbye. I believe permits are imminent
The share price over the next 6-12 months will not be just about cascabel. Not by a long chalk...
Hi Grimbergen. Besides the passing of (a long) time, do you have any reasons for believing that permits are imminent?
Jason Ward mentioned that we are close to getting permits
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HAWXCqN8FGc
I know he mentioned that during 121 New york should be with us by end of June. I am expecting it soon.
Regarding the bid, I am expecting initial bid to be before end of summer, once the Cornerstone situation gets resolved.
GL all.
Thank you Jerryspaniel.
Jerry - as Mog already pointed to (thanks Mog) a confident Jason Ward was happy to go on record to say that they were 5 stages complete out of 6, they were expected to be granted shortly and would be drilled henceforth.
Now I know the court case resulted in NM in an RNS putting pressure on by stating they would wait until the new year, court cases pending etc. But given the Minister’s strong ‘right let’s get on with this’ statements after the court case had been thrown out, and their immediate move to oust the illegal miners by force, I suspect NM now will find he has permits granted v shortly, but also pressure on him from govt to ‘sh*t or get off the pot” and to get a wriggle on.
TLDR version - we know on record the permits were shortly to be granted, we know the govt is keen to move the sector forwards (and get some tax revenues!), the permits will come, and pressure will be on NM to drill them
GB. If I were JW I would have been straight round the ministry after the court case was resolved, to say 'you now owe me for the mess that you allowed to be created. Give us the permits!'
But we dont know if anything like that happened.
I remember that JW said that 5 out of 6 were complete. But we dont know how long the five took, nor how long the six phase might take. Logic would say that we are 5/6 of the way through, but we could just be 5% of the way through. I tried to get some clarification on this from Anna but she is ignoring me atm.
Sadly the company has used shortly many times and the only way I think they use shortly is in geological terms!!
Logic would make us assume that stuff should happen soon but I could have been saying that since Jan. Seems for some reason the company isnt interested in keeping the market up to date with the news and isnt interested in any sp increase. No idea why any of this would be the case unless everything was bad - and that shouldnt be the case as everything management has said has been positive.
Its all very odd and very wrong IMHO.
For a management team that has give from a sawn channel in some rocks 6 or 7 years ago, and a company valued at £30/40m just a few years ago, to being on the cusp of one of the world’s biggest copper mines, and a company worth 10 or 20 times that value (and that as seen my own wealth increase along side) I’m prepared to give them the benefit of the doubt.
As compared to the overly pessimistic views of jerryspaniel.
You’re right, the permits ‘could’ only be 5% of the way progressed, at least in theory. But that’s not fact, and it’s likely they're closer to 95% done than 5% given JW’s statement of 5 out of 6 stages... if you want to exaggerate for effect. As you clearly do
Each to their own. See you in a few weeks when the permits are announced x
Grim,morning off fishing today ,agree with your comments there ,we will find out soon imho ,enjoy your day everyone !:)
Happy fishing Cookie, I hope you catch a big one :)
Morning cookie, morning all
Have a lovely day cookie
Pinot xx
:0)
A little light reading, shows the goverment is on board with mining,
https://www.eltelegrafo.com.ec/noticias/economia/4/ecuador-mineria-mirador
Pinot
:0)
The Mirador mining project will officially begin the copper production phase this Thursday, July 18, 2019, which opens large-scale industrial mining in Ecuador, according to the company Ecuacorriente responsible for the project. Vice President Otto Sonnenholzner plans to attend the inauguration event to be held in the mining facilities of the Tundayme parish, canton El Pangui, in the province of Zamora Chinchipe. On this date, Ecuacorriente will put into operation its beneficiation plant, the first built in Ecuador for large-scale industrial mining, the primary base for the extraction of copper concentrate, the company said in a statement. Up to the plant will arrive an initial estimate of 10,000 tons of rock daily from the mine. In six months, this figure will increase to 30,000 tons; and in the span of one year, to 60,000 tons. The mining company indicated that it has complied with obtaining the environmental licenses issued by the competent authority to execute the five plans approved by this entity. "The investment of the company to June of this year has been $ 1,248 million, generating about 2,500 jobs," says Ecuacorriente. In 2018, the company invested more than 1.7 million dollars in a program to support local communities. The company anticipated $ 85 million in royalties to the Ecuadorian State from 2012 to February 2019, economic resources that have been invested in works for the province of Zamora Chinchipe. (I)