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My dog farted just about the same time as the bid/ask popping on SOLG today. Shall I correlate that?
A crow just crapped on my DB11... just before SOLG spiked...
I think I've opened the bb up to abuse now. Sorry!
I think you need to take a breather. You are correlating a £15k trade with PoG's move through $2000oz on a company that has a £260m+ market cap?
Sorry red, i'm not sure what on earth you are on about?
You've been told they are working toward a lower Capex (by Scott) so it enables a phased approach and more interested parties to participate in potential fund talks. Some interested parties just can't make $2bln capex work. So to get more interested folk in the room... the lower capex plans make sense. But ultimately it may well result in a larger player gazumping and taking the lot on and doing their own pfs based on deeper pockets and better scale.
Colonel...the ASK went from 9.15 to 9.90 precisely when Gold spiked over $2,000...on ZERO trades...
Immediately after, somebody paid 9.5694 for 207,235 shares when the previous trade was a SALE of 75,000 shares at 9.12p...
I know one swallo doesn't make a summer, but watch SOLG establish a new uptrend when gold establishes itself above $2,000...especially if copper remains above $3.70...
Question for Redknight.
If the share price of Solgold is related to the price of gold.
Then why was gold under 2,000 dollars an ounce and Solgold was 46 pence a share . That's five times more on the share price meaning a gold equivalent would be around 10,000 dollars an ounce.
Redknight talking rubbish again.
Colonel...what you have posted is your OPINION what I posted was the raw facts.
So please substantiate the following opinions, 3 months before PFS2 and about which you nothing, other than the assumptions in PFS2, so...
"$1850 "will be used for gold (BTW that gives a Gross Value of $144.3 BILLION for 78million ounces of gold equivalent
Why do they "need to get capex down to $1bln..."
And why do they need "an IRR of above 25%+ for a 5 to 6 year mine life phase one project. Ideally nearer 30%..."
I would be grateful for your detailed recalculation of the PFS, otherwise you might as well use a wet finger...
Let me repeat...an exact equivalent of the Lumina deal would give us $2.3 billion and we wouldn't need to justify any debt or equity funding...
It certainly doesn't correlate with the copper price and my 'opinion' is that we would have been more like 7p but for the spike in gold over the last 10 days...but thats an opinion...
Give over Tesla, there isn’t anybody who posts on these forums who thinks that their posts will influence the share price in a way way. They just have opinions either long or short
Red, you can't align every movement in SOLG's sp with Gold just because of the timing. SOLG's shareprice is at levels whereby we have seen greater than normal volume, more volatility driven by liquidity and it's pretty much expected to see more pronounced moves when at multi year lows and off back of a 1.5% holder dumping stock heavy handed.
The volume today looks weak compared to past days so my guess on why the Ask moved higher and the bid gradually nudge up is likely down to off book deal or something that will get printed in after hours. Watch out for a large trade printed at 9.5p level or higher. being Friday... the mm's might print it early in normal trading hours or they might print it on Monday.. they have 2 to 3 days to post large trades based on LSE rules. Just a hunch of course...!
If I may, during its history, SOLGs share price has been correlated to gold, at some point I calculated up to 0.84 correl.
Right now, as Fort said, there is no correlation. For the last 12 months I calculated 0.003 correl.
I think we just need to accept that the corporate events are just creating a medium term stress on the share price. Or not accept and sell that is.
GLA.
Red, I'm not knocking your reference to gold in terms of value/SOLG resources, I'm just saying the market doesn't correlate direct to SOLG and understandable as BoD's have not given market any insight into how they are going to fund and extract it along with timelines. Even by the time SOLG gets 100koz out, PoG could be $1300oz again. Or conversely it could be $3000oz.
If they released a downsized PFS tomorrow, they would have to use PoG benchmark pricing which is considerably lower than $2000oz. I think they could gain 10% uplift and go with $1850oz and that might offset the inflation data feeds but it's still nigh impossible to get a sensible read when you have interest rates at 5%+.
They need to get capex down to $1bln... for phase 1 mine plan....and deliver an IRR of above 25%+ for a 5 to 6 year mine life phase one project. Ideally nearer 30%. PoG price helps but merely as an offset for rising prices elsewhere.
And you say "There is virtually zero correlation with PoG and SOLG...."
So please explain why the ASK went from 9.15p to 9.90p the instant that Gold spiked over $2,000?
Fort...SOLG has 78 million ounces of Gold Equivalent...
Thats $156 BILLION GROSS...
Sooner or later that has to assert itself because right now, with Gold at $2000 and $53.4 billion dollars worth of gold on its own, SOLG must look pretty attractive to a Gold Miner...
He knows exactly my position on the stock and I see him regularly.
He knows I can’t abide rampers like red ramper, albeit he likes red ramper, and has qualified in a response to Seanhunter why I post.
I have never said it’s a bad investment, it may or may not turn out as a good investment, I’ll just highlight what I think is ramping.
I don’t have an issue with negative or positive posters who can back it up with reasoned arguments.
The problem with a lot of posters is they have been sucked in by the rampers and have over optimistic expectations of what may happen here.
I hope genuine investors like qalibashi make money, the rampers like fort, dbw etc not so much.
Fort - do you really think artisinal miners are running round Alpala right now with their shovels, pickaxes and other small scale mining gear?
You can be sure that Alpala has been properly manned for a number of years now. The camp and infrastructure build out started 4 or 5 years ago.
Tesla - because as I see it, an acquaintance of yours tries to sell you a stock. 6 years ago would have been right amidst the Alpala discovery euphoria.
Instead of just saying "thanks but no thanks" you then rub his nose in it by joining LSE and not so subtly trying to tell everyone else what a bad investment it is.
Does that sound like normal behaviour?
There is virtually zero correlation with PoG and SOLG. That's proven by the $170oz increase or 10% in PoG vs SOLG's near 40% decline in same period.
You might get some gold trackers nibbling but the weights are usually focused on producers foremost.
The Irony is, if SOLG announced a side hustle... to Alpala like a 150koz open pit shallow 4 to 5 year mine life project on Tandy... well... that would be worth £500m+ based on a modest $100m to $150m capex.
When you have a market cap at near 10% of your main asset value, it's sometimes worth breaking it down into tiny pieces so the rather ignorant market can understand it. SOLGOLD is seen as a copper player. It's not had much affinity with gold and silver even though it has probably the largest resource of any Gold producer on market that is sub £1bln market cap.
The Artisinal miners (illegal) are making more money out of Alpala right now than SOLG shareholders.
Lighting up the SP...
(Gold over $2,000!!!)
Aye DBW Based on Gross Annual Revenues of £2.16 BILLION, as stated yesterday or...to put it another way...
Using the PFS 1 figures and the tonnages quoted yesterday, the INCREMENTAL total gain PER YEAR, at current metals prices would be:
Copper $51.2 million
Gold $131.4 million
Silver $5.6 million
That totals $188.2 million or £155 million
Which puts SOLG on a P/E ratio of only 1.7 times, FOR THE ANNUAL INCREMENT ALONE...
So just imagine what that does for the PFS2 and, to answer your question, coupled with a gold streaming deal equivalent to the Lumina deal (i.e. a prospective cash raise of $2.3 BILLION...more than enough to finance Cascabel...
Surely the shares would be rerated to north of 50p at least in no time at all...
Remember...the market has concluded that SOLG cannot finance Cascabel, because theres insufficient capital available in debt markets, but Wheaton, FNV or Trafigura cpuld put up the whole ball of wax for just 6.6% of the output, reducing to 4.4%...
Sounds like a deal to me and...if the prospective predators got wind of that before it was signed, surely it would flush out the bidders...
I would welcome anyone challenging my figures, but again I say...THIS SP IS BONKERS on any reasonable metric.
PS For those worried about running out of cash, the Lumina deal shows we could raise $50m at the drop of a hat...
Red imagine if they released the revised PFS alongside a fully funded streaming deal .. that’d put the wind up BHP and the Chinese
9.06/9.90 spread!!!
Pactrol, indeed they could, but whilst the SR is ongoing the company would simply dismiss it. And without board support an unsolicited low-ball bid is going nowhere.
Hi Quady,
Looking at some of the points from the SR announcement:
-A spin-out of assets, other than the cascabel project, to all shareholders.
-The direct or indirect sale of an interest in the cascabel project howsoever effected; or any other transaction or series of related transactions.
Seems clear to me that a sale of cascabel is not off the table, be it part or whole.
For clarity, I never claimed to be half Canadian. I stated that I hold dual British and Canadian citizenship. The troglodyte immediately inferred from that that I am half Canadian. I am a Manchester lad who worked in Canada for 13 years. Life is easier to take up their citizenship. For example, only Canadian citizens are permitted to work for the federal government.
That's true but with the share price where it is . one would think now is a good time for an interested party to make a lowball offer don't you think
Doesn't matter what the market thinks... what matters is what future partners or buyers of the asset thinks. They won't be buying your shares off you to tuck away in a draw somewhere or to day trade... they will be buying your shares (if a buyer and not partner involved) so they gain control of the company and the asset. It's the asset they want... but to get it.. they need your shares.
Not rocket science... so doesn't matter what market thinks... as market changes its mind every second of the day.
Yes interesting. but it appears the market is not impressed hence the share price