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Mathers - 12:47 post is wildly inaccurate.
What will dictate anyone's return on investment is market demand for the stock outstripping supply by such a factor that the price has to increase to a level the individual finds acceptable.
Here you are Red
“Shares in the Brisbane-based, London-listed developer dropped last week on rumours of an unsuccessful capital raising.
CEO Darryl Cuzzubbo confirmed the company tested the market.
"We'll need funding for the DFS. We've still got $26 million in the bank, so we've got some runway there," he told reporters on the sidelines of Diggers & Dealers in Kalgoorlie this week.
"We did see if we could get it in the in the short term, but we've got some time."
Cuzzubbo said the company would consider a variety of funding options.
BHP and Newcrest Mining each own about 14% of SolGold.
"BHP and Newcrest have a view on how we should be raising capital funding and the shareholders have a different view on that, and we need to work through what's best for all typical shareholders. And again, we've got time to do that," Cuzzubbo said.
While the relationship between SolGold and its two major shareholders was strained under Cuzzubbo's predecessor Nick Mather, it has been on the mend since Perth dealmaker Liam Twigger joined the company in 2019.
Cuzzubbo, a former BHP and Orica executive, joined the company in December last year.
He said the first thing he did was reach out to BHP and Newcrest.
"In fact, I met with Newcrest on day one and BHP in the subsequent week," he said.
"Look, I think we've got a very open relationship. We share what we're doing with them. They saw the value in Cascabel and in Ecuador more broadly.
"Their support means a lot, right? So a lot of investors look at us because of BHP's and Newcrest's support, so it's an important relationship, and I would say it's a respectful relationship."
Cuzzubbo pointed out that SolGold's recent Cascabel prefeasibility study showed the project would generate free cashflow of US$1.4 billion a year, peaking at $1.6 billion per year, based on a copper price assumption of $3.60 per pound.
"So if you take BHP or Newcrest, or any majors' view, they're looking at this as multiple decades and they're seeing SolGold as a mining jurisdiction, not just Cascabel," he said.
"So it's a long-term game being played out here."
SolGold is targeting the release of a PFS addendum in the December quarter, which aims to add $1-1.8 billion in pre-tax net present value.
The April PFS returned a post-tax net present value (8% discount rate) of $2.9 billion and internal rate of return of 19.3%.
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/business/solgold-expansion-plans-wont-cop-capital-issues-says-darrly-cuzzubbo/news-story/ebec28b759b6d97a2bd31e41cc067326?amp&nk=91cb0bb8eb80f6bbb1d257195d4c3429-1659701942
SolGold expansion plans won’t cop capital issues, says Darrly Cuzzubbo
SolGold boss Darryl Cuzzubbo says the in-demand copper hopeful has enough cash to get through at least the end of the year.
The Australian Business Network
SolGold boss Darryl Cuzzubbo is chasing big copper and gold targets in Ecuador amid capital constraints.
SolGold boss Darryl Cuzzubbo is chasing big copper and gold targets in Ecuador amid capital constraints.
SolGold boss Darryl Cuzzubbo says the in-demand copper hopeful has enough cash to get through at least the end of the year, playing down the impact of a stalled capital raising effort on the company’s future.
22.55/22.83 in 100k...
Down into the 22s now.
Does anyone have a subscription?
https://www.mining-journal.com/events-coverage/news/1437266/solgold-weighing-up-funding-options-for-cascabel-dfs
Can buy 150k but only sell 50k...
Blame the funding 'fail' brad...and the hiatus since...the SP closed at 27.45 the night before the fated RNS...since down over 16%...
5 days and all it does is fall, some one really wants this cheap or we are all being taken as fools.
Sharketmare,
What will determine the return on your investment is real news, factual posts and then a opinion on that real news is worthy of a post
As you put it Solgold has a prized asset in a tier 1 mine, so why would a major walk from that?
Not many tier 1’s around is there, in business you don’t cut your nose of to spite your face, even if you don’t like the BOD’s or some other silly reason, 50+ years of mining, only a fool would walk from that imo
Atb
Mathersfinger, in absence of actual news from the company, of which we've had very little this year, investors are going to speculate as to what is going on behind the scenes. And discussing the possibility of one of our majors deciding to no longer pursue SOLG isn't just the fatuous 'making up of scenarios' you make it out to be. The SOLG story is one of a years long struggle of ownership of a prized Tier 1 copper gold asset in Ecaudor. How that plays out is certainly worth speculating about, as it will determine the return on our investment.
I have been in this share for ever and I don’t have a clue what’s going on it’s very depressing
I see our most unintelligent poster is back with a rac.ist name.
He will be removed.
Where will it bounce from...?
Thats the price to sell 100k or more dave...just dummy checked...
Looks like someone based out well under bid for 2 chunks....stops getting triggered I assume..
Thats exactly what I was saying.
Sliding now...sub 23p...
Why not just wait for the RNS’s to come, what if and this did that, such sh*ti is posted at times.
Why would a major lose a tier one? Ecuador is open for business as it really needs to pay it’s debts, Lasso is doing all he can, Solgold we will have to wait to see what they can do, but they are well in with Ecuador and the government and the people
Yes there is always risks to any investment, that’s why there is a sell price if you are worried, but to make up scenario’s none stop is just bloody silly, good reasoned debates on what you actually know is much better, just my opinion.
So let me get this right, you expect there to be a bidding war by year end, so you sold out 800k earlier this year and just recently another 500k and this week you are now buying them all back ready for the bidding war, "stocked up".?
A great strategy.
Z
Was their a market pause between 10.10 and 10.43...? No stock traded...unlikely to be in auction given the low volumes today...interesting...
A well reasoned post rcgl...
If one of the two 'walked away' I think they would sell their entire stake to another major rather than work them out through the market...
Both BHP and Newcrest paid significantly above the present price. If you think what a $50m cash raise would do to the SP, what would a c$100m stake being 'worked' in the market would do...which means it would be steadily reducing the ultimate proceeds.
When Newcrest withdrew Craig Jones, they carried out a strategic review of what to do with their stake and decided to keep it as a strategic investment. That means they expect to more than recoup the cost over time...or by a straight sale.
The most obvious buyer would be BHP, which with buying in the market could take them to 30% PDQ, but...
If another major bought it, it would give them a strategic foothold and starting point before a bid.
I'm certain the Chinese would pay well for Newcrest's stake, whether or not the Ecuador government wants a threatened stranglehold on mining as well as oil...
So I'm not worried about a stake sale by either. The most likely is Newcrest. If it went to BHP I would expect a final exit price on takeover to be lower than if it went to a major such as Barrick...look what happened at Noront...
rcgl, you're right to raise this point - too many investors are afraid of looking at the risks involved with their investments.
The one point I'd make is that the prize is simply too big for someone like BHP to ignore. If it were only our management who were trumpeting the value of our resource it could be discounted - but it isn't. Every analyst and major is aware of Cascabel and its potential, and given the future global demand for copper it would foolhardy, to say the least, to walk away from it. (Incidentally, I'm not including NCM in this as I can easily see them flogging their holding)
We never discuss the scenario where Solg pushes BHP and NCM too far and one or both of them decides to just walk away completely. How would that play out? It's tempting to hope that one would sell to the other, or if both decided to sell out that a third party major would be waiting in the wings to scoop up 27% of the company and look to take over... But I wonder if that's wishful thinking.
If one or both of them just decided to dump their holdings as soon as possible and put out a statement saying the jurisdiction was too tricky, Cascabel was too complex and capital intensive with too low an IRR... I imagine the SP would tank like we wouldn't believe.
People will say oh but they've both invested so many millions in Solg already, they must either want to take control and mine everything themselves, or they will want a decent return on their investment. I don't think that is true in all circumstances. CEOs like to talk about "optionality", which they get by making strategic early stage investments in companies like Solg so as to keep their options open for the future, but it doesn't necessarily mean they have to take up all those options. They must expect to walk away from at least some of their early stage investments having given up the option premium but ultimately decided it wasn't worth going further. Bearing in mind the size and scale of BHP they could just write down their investment in Solg by 50%, walk away and not really lose any sleep over it. Especially if they feel they have better options elsewhere to bring on their future facing metals.
Which is not me being totally negative on Solg by the way. Just feels that Solg is now walking quite a narrow path trying to balance the needs of the major holders vs the rest, which DC said in his recent comments. It's easy for us to say sod them, let's just go out and find alternative funding and trigger the majors into action, but I wonder if we need to be careful what we wish for. Having these two on the register adds a lot of credibility to Solg's projects. Having them walk away now would surely be a terrible outcome.
Slightly better sentiment in industrial metals this morning but with copper down 1% in the last couple of hours, lets see if it lasts...
Meanwhile looks like a couple of PIs have picked up chunks of stock...