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Fortissimo,
Very simplistic view don’t you think?
So a recession is on us very soon, food, energy, borrowing and mortgages going up, the demand is still needed for our resources but not so soon imo, I can see a long game played here or a very cheap deal coming if the BOD’s are not savvy
Atb
Oz minerals share price jumped to $25+ on the news - so market thinks the final offer will be higher.
On a similar basis, if SOLG had a 29p offer, it 's not going to fly on the basis that NCM and bulk if II's are holding stock with averages near 26p to 30p. They won't be selling for that. Most that took the placings over the last few years (in the mid 20's would have done with the firm belief that doubling their money to 50p+ would be a worst case scenario.
I would expect the opening bid for SOLG to be around 40p level and then either go for another 50% to 60p or 100% to 80p.
Surely a 32% premium gives a price of 29p...?
If BHP can bid $8.3 billion then bidding for Solgold would be small change, even at a 200% premium...
32% premium? for us, that will be less than 0.3 per share. not sure that's what we wait for but could explain how the current situation serves BHP. Need a third party interest here.
Reuters article on it
https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/oz-minerals-rejects-bhps-58-bln-nickel-copper-play-undervalued-2022-08-07/
Shame that bid wasnt heading our way...............grrrrrrrrrr
11 trade gla let's see this week if any news comes up
OZ minerals closed up at $25.6 based on that $17.67 bid offer so looks like the market already thinking $25 to $30 more likely.
Our time will come.
Low ball indeed, but I suspect they fully intend to work their way higher. They started low ball with Noront too at 55cents and moved to 75cents. Will be interesting to see if they move up by 40%+ again. I suspect $26 a share is where it's likely to end up.
Morning, I have too much on with work this morning to do a copy and paste job (PDFs are tricky), but SOLG is featured in Q3's LATAM Investor Magazine.
If you join and subscribe (free of charge, no payment details requested), you can view the magazine and relevant articles for free.
https://latam-investor.com/2022/08/latam-investor-q3-2022/
"BHP chief executive Mike Henry said BHP was disappointed with the rejection of the offer, which represented a 32.1 per cent premium to Friday’s closing price, and a 41.4 per cent premium to Oz Minerals’ 30-day weighted average of $17.67 a share."
Low ball....
Its mid winter in Brisbane...
going to be interesting to see how BHP move their opportunistic bid higher and whether someone else comes into the bidding process. Like Noront, going to be very interesting to watch this one unfold.
Business is business and low ball offers at opportunities times is clearly the way to go. But will they lose out on this one too?
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/oz-minerals-turns-down-bhp-s-8-4b-takeover-offer-20220808-p5b819.html
Highly opportunistic! Mmm... think we are seeing in black and white how BHP work.
Great news indeed. Looks like it really is prime time to make bids. BHP have a habit of making darts for companies around summer period (northern hemisphere). Their Noront bid first landed on 27th July. Are they 'seasonal' bidders lol!
M&A activity tends to start with the large majors and there's a domino effect across sector as the big boys play their cards in race to benefit from impending copper deficit.
BHP this morning launched a takeover of Oz minerals a reasonably large copper play here in Oz 8 bill Oz market Cap (35% premium or there abouts). Their Prominent Hill mine is close to Olympic Dam in South Australia. All the copper stocks on the ASX are pumping as a result an example of another stock I am in Sandfire is up 10%. OZ minerals reject the offer as being too low and not letting them do due diligence etc.
Looks like this is the start of the M&A spree which is coming in the copper space.
All this talk about raising cash for this and that.......and god forbid if we are to believe Quady.....all the way to production. Feck knows how much that is going to cost;
and yet they just failed to raise a couple of pounds to get them another 6 months breathing space??? Solg is not bankable at the moment, the risks are still too high for an outsider to chip in.....just yet.
Bozi said this recently:
"...I find a JV at Cascabel very very unlikely. Why would any major in the right mind buy 50-60% of an asset and basically get married with a couple of uncapitalised, non revenue generating juniors like us and Cornerstone?..."
I disagree - the majors are in the room, guys. They are amongst us. They know the DC has blown it regarding cash and they are waiting. When the time comes, they will move to JV (one or both) as the ONLY way out for Solg.
And to answer your comments directly Bozi: All a major has to do is stump up the dosh to initiate construction, call on Cornerstone for their $400m contribution - watch them default and buy them out for $3.5M. What have we got: A BOGOFF.........buy one(solg), get one free (cornerstone). The rest is history.
Solg cannot do this alone, financially, or physically. The majors know this.
JVA: You know it makes sense.
Z
America votes to go green, this should increase the demand for copper and lithium.
Copper prices must surely rocket now.
Appreciate your candidness bankrupty.
The BIG issue we have is the global economy. With China the biggest user of copper (41%) and numerous sources suggesting recession imminent not only there, but in the US - this will determine our SP.
The way I see it is not a drop to 12p, but circa 19p (in the next few weeks) and then an announcement from SOLG in the next 6 weeks regarding regional JV's / funding / equity raise.
This will push us back up to high 20's and then it's wait and see weather a bid lands or its the long game.
Damers.
Please don't get me banned like they did 2 years ago on the GGP board....all I said was that I saw 10p as fair value for GGP...and I sort of proved it....of course I got ridiculed when I came out with this around 34p...on the way back from 38p....but at 18p ish that was it......I was zapped by consent...talking 'bout 10p
I'm still holding a bit here but only 5% of what I used to have.....and I expect to buy back in properly around 12p.....I don't want to talk the 10p...look where that got me last time! lol.
Just think the "bigboys" normally win....and I'm not betting against the "Fed Narrative" for now...for the same reason...I would expect to see 40p + here again in 2 years...if not bought out..by then.
so holding would not be the worst thing to do IMO........just as I see it! GLA
LSD?
what a space of waste!
What a waste of space...
Well that’s the world put to rights now, go relax as it’s going to be a nice weekend
Atb
When your all bored of talking about free speech and racism on a investment chat forum
Sign up to the link , and read the mining report
Equador has a big section I did post snippets from it but it’s worth a read
https://latam-investor.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/LatAm-INVESTOR-Q3-2022.pdf