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Jaysus Christ, give the childish oneupmanship a break lads.....it's fecking tiresome! Get a hobby or something ffs.
Addicknt point one is irrelevant.
You know the PFS has been known about for ages.
A bid could have been made and due diligence applied.
Point one makes no sense at all.
Okay, so you now recognise we cannot do this on out own, so that option can be dismissed, and you now say you don't want a jv. Erm...what does that leave us with?
Re: ENSA. Please see my point number 1.
Jezzoo a JV would not be bad.
We would have a proportion of our construction costs, plus cash from the JV.
Also we may have some offtake thrown in at the same time.
Meaning very little dilution with a mine in production producing a huge amount of profit.
On point six I have considered that.
I repeat I post the most likely outcome not what I want.
Someone could have easily brought ENSA years ago.
All they had to do was simultaneously get an agreed bid for Solgolds 85% and CGP'S 15%.
It was never done for all reasons I have suggested.
Today it's harder to make a bid not easier.
Q.
1) It hasn't already been sold for the simple reason that until recently no one had a clear picture of what Cascabel actually contained. In other words, they need proof.
2) I understand the diverse 'book' perfectly well. I also know that every takeover, whether hostile or not, faces the same picture. Our register is not unique.
3) I agree with your point about the balance of our portfolio, which is why a deal is likely to focus only on ENSA,
4) We do not know what either our board or potential buyers think it's worth. Therefore the question of 'fair value' is unanswerable.
5) The sale of ENSA will be an agreed deal...as I've maintained for a very long time. Therefore your point is not relevant.
6) Your reference to a jv being 'the cheapest for the company interested in Alpala', unwittingly hits the nail on the head. It's the cheapest for the bidder i.e it's no good for us. Perhaps you hadn't considered that?
If we get JV'd we might as well forget about our investment here, we would never get it back, not this decade at least anyway.
Okay addicknt ask yourself a question.
Why is it that most people on here have been saying we will be sold for years and it has never happened.
I know you don't understand the diverse book, but along with our defence, that is the main reason.
Today the book is more diverse and so harder for a bid to succeed.
So what's left.
Will someone overpay to get Cascabel and a load of tenements they don't want.
Of course not.
Will someone offer fair value. Really unlikely as what they consider fair value will not be what major partners in Solgold consider fair value.
So the question remains.
How does someone get ENSA and the wider Alpala concession. Without bidding.
Answer is they JV with us.
It seems the most likely outcome and the cheapest for the company interested in Alpala.
What's more it makes the strategic review sensible.
Q, how do you know it's the most likely outcome? Everything we've heard suggests otherwise. Sangha, CGP and DGR have made it pretty clear haven't they? And let's not forget Mather always maintained he'd never get involved in one.
As I said earlier, a jv is a possibility ( no more than that) but I simply cannot see how it would deliver what they want. In fact, no one on here has outlined a compelling argument for the benefits of a jv...mainly because there are none.
So, far from being the 'most likely outcome', I see it almost as being a complete non-starter.
why we haven't seen a raft of TR1s which reflect the diluted shareholdings of our main investors?
Addicknt I think you misunderstand me.
It's not about what is my desired outcome.
It's what is the most likely outcome.
I would love for us to be bought out for 2 pounds a share.
But that's not how these things work.
Let's hope so novice I'd like that very much.
Q, you now appear to accept that we cannot take this to production ourselves and are now of the opinion that we will end up entering into a jv - which I don't deny is a possibility, albeit one that has zero appeal for me.
The one thing which is not clear to me is why you think this is a good idea and how it delivers what our new management team and their supporters have stated is their intention.
A while back I laid out what the financial implications of a jv may look like, both in terms of both the short and long terms and concluded it wouldn't make any sense at all. I also recall asking you to outline why you thought it was a good idea and how the financials may work...you didn't reply.
As far as I can see, a jv would not deliver what Sangha and co want and therefore I struggle to see why they'd pursue one.
I understand why you're hanging your hat on a jv, but I simply cannot understand why you believe it's the best route to follow.
I agree and believe Nick Mather is now in alignment with what the Canadians seek as opposed to his former insistence on achieving 'top dollar', and this may have been a result of the unsuccessful July raising where it became undeniable once and for all that the rift between the Cornerstone bloc and his own was simply enabling BHP to call the shots. Something had to give, and that was the Nick Mather bloc throwing its weight behind Cornerstone. Perhaps the plan is for Jiangxi to make a Board-backed bid, which will force BHP to decide how badly it wants Cascabel. Of course it's better if there's competitive bidding, but I'm prepared for the possibility that we will have to take a price that the Chinese will be very happy with. I just hope whatever the outcome is, that it is months rather than years away now.
Evening all. Firstly belated Christmas and New Years wishes to all. Has a date been given for the strategic review publication?
GLA
DK
Scrat we all want a payday it's just going to take a bit more time.
Quady .. I want a payday. Sell the lot to a strategic investor.
Lived too long on the promise of strawberries tomorrow.
I've said all along...the strategic review is a smokescreen...
I sincerely hope you are all fully loaded or you could miss out on a bumper payday...it could happen any day after tomorrow...
And just to remind you...Jiangxi is owned by the Chinese government for whom copper is a strategic metal...
Although on a smaller scale, Shanta gold did recently have interest declared and discussions kicked off which triggered takeover rules announcement. Two of the bidders or interested parties were chinese. In the end nothing came of it, but the point here is that the chinese do not seem bothered one bit about making bids first. That all said, SOLG is different in that should an offer be tabled then bulk of people out there (chinese included) expect to see BHP (and or NCM) put up a counter bid or make the transaction a tricky one. FWIIW, I think BHP have made their mind up and gone with Oz Minerals. I don't think they will get into a counter bid foray with the chinese but I do think they will push them to pay fair price.
After what's transpired of late with Lasso et al, I think the chinese are favourites. But I wouldn't rule out Anglo American or Fortesque.
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/995784/shanta-gold-says-yintai-bid-approach-is-for-cash-995784.html
Why would anyone want to buy Solgold.
If anyone attempted it, then they would need to overpay for something they don't want.
What people want is ENSA.
So the way to get ENSA isn't to buy Solgold and get into a bidding war.
The way to get ENSA is to JV Cascabel.
Novice the ship is about to sail here gla
6%*
I think Jiangxi are most likely to make an offer for the company. Why would they bother investing in a company as riddled with turmoil as Solgold if they didn't plan on taking the lot? It's not like owning 12% of Cascabel for a payout in 2030 is the motive given we've given up advancing it.
The question is whether their offer will be acceptable to Mather. If not, your solution comes in to play Bozi and Jiangxi can decide whether they are happy to stump up the cash for just Cascabel.
My inner pessimist shares your fears Bozi, but now is the time to strike as dollar strength will recede, precious metals are due a breakout, Russia / Ukraine will be resolved by spring, inflation will drop and rate rise fears will dissipate.... then the rebound is on and any chance of taking this out relatively cheap is gone for good. My guess, and let's face it, it is a guess is that based on my working assumption above, first bid will land before the end of the month as the suitors must know this. Even if not, I'm holding as the direction of travel is locked in and the world needs what we have. Let's hope for a strong week all. C
Just thinking aloud.
BHP doesn't want to be the first off the mark. They want to join the fray late and they can afford to do so with a production profile from Oz Minerals.
Jiangxi may be more inclined to make a move but they'll be wary of being stalked by BHP.
Nobody else really matters because, as far as we know, nobody is buying open market, something they simply would have to do to attain parity at about 10-12%.