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I wasn't linking local to national politics the way you suggested. My reference to local politics is more about local support for getting the mine built means they won't be protesting, blockading roads or attacking mine personnel when the time comes. I don't know when anything will happen, the geopolitical situation in Ecuador is a real bummer indeed.
I am obviously not Fort but I believe Cascabel has enough in the tank with regards local support, sufficiently advanced to induce strong and consistent government support (not quite the same as Oyu Tolgoi's fiscal importance to Mongolia, but enough for (almost) any Ecuadorian government to want to see it get done), not being exposed to Indigenous or historical claims. All other tenements best considered worthless.
I don't see it as all bad. Conaie and Correa's supporters have so far held off calling for street protests (which always turn into riots). If Lasso does not run for reelection, and his opponents feel that they're better served preparing for the elections in 6 months instead, that's plenty of time for the FTA to be ratified, and maybe even the exploitation agreement signed, which are the necessary green lights. Of course sentiment on the streets will likely determine what all of them decide to do.
Some interesting reading.
Guillermo Lasso: ‘I’ve chosen to govern for six months in purgatory, rather than governing for two years in hell’
https://english.elpais.com/international/2023-05-19/guillermo-lasso-ive-chosen-to-govern-for-six-months-in-purgatory-rather-than-governing-for-two-years-in-hell.html
All the copper shortage in the world is meaningless to Solgold without the Exploitation agreement for Cascabel. I hope that's still coming along but maybe Lasso's government has other things to worry about right now.
Everybody knows Ecuador is a political basket case. I have written off all other of the company's exploration assets because I don't know if they are subject to any Indigenous or Ancestral consultation. I'm still in Solgold because Cascabel is not subject to either according to Darryl (maybe somebody remembers who he is), and what appears to be strong local support. What I don't know is if there are permitting issues or something that's holding back the project.
DGR, Samuel Holdings and Tenstars' shares in SOLG are Nick Mather's shares, de jure or de facto. That is all the relevance there is to Solgold. DGR's financial position is not relevant to what may or may not happen with Solgold this year, probably not next year either. At some point it may become relevant, but not now.
I agree and believe Nick Mather is now in alignment with what the Canadians seek as opposed to his former insistence on achieving 'top dollar', and this may have been a result of the unsuccessful July raising where it became undeniable once and for all that the rift between the Cornerstone bloc and his own was simply enabling BHP to call the shots. Something had to give, and that was the Nick Mather bloc throwing its weight behind Cornerstone. Perhaps the plan is for Jiangxi to make a Board-backed bid, which will force BHP to decide how badly it wants Cascabel. Of course it's better if there's competitive bidding, but I'm prepared for the possibility that we will have to take a price that the Chinese will be very happy with. I just hope whatever the outcome is, that it is months rather than years away now.
Norges and BlackRock are not on the side of the retail shareholders. And there’s nothing nefarious about that, they are simply acting according to the objectives of their funds, and making the best coin from a sale of Cascabel / Solgold is not necessarily their objective.
Nobody can make a move on Solgold as long as BHP and NCM are able to influence the board via their shareholding’s and their lobbying of other shareholders. Just as BHP needs a board supportive of their agenda, Jiangxi needs one that will be supportive of their bid, if any. Suitors will make bids based on their valuation of Cascabel or Solgold. Destabilising the share price in order to get a ‘good deal’ is not really a thin. Any bid cannot be too far from being independently assessed as being fair or reasonable, regardless of what the share price is.
BHP's team are completing their due diligence on their OZL takeover. They are not the sort of company that will rush into making a bid because Jiangxi has taken a 6% stake. You think this is a Sunday morning property auction? Or that cascabel is a must have for them? Everything depends on price. They will be forced into action only when they are forced to, and the decision whether or not to bid will soon be forced upon them. Until then, why on earth would they bid if they believed they could control the direction of the company from within, sharing the costs with everyone else until they were good and ready, and believed Cascabel completely derisked before taking over. Just look at Turquiose Hill Resources. None of this is to say a bid is imminent from either the Chinese, or BHP. All recent actions from the new management since is about ending the status quo with BHP/NCM, which was being beholden to them in decision making, especially with funding. And it is when that happens that all interested parties can make a move, or be forced to decide (ie BHP). While I would prefer an outright sale of the company, or Cascabel, I am prepared for the possibility that the company eventually enters into a 50:50 JV with one or more Chinese entities (they have recently seemed to favour these arrangements rather than outright control) because these have actually worked out very well for several other juniors. There's a good reason why Robert Friedland went for it with his Kamoa Kakula deposit instead of turning to the 'majors', and they have certainly done well. If nothing else, the Chinese bring efficiency , reliable funding and operational excellence in getting operations up and running. Hardly my desired outcome, but it is a possibility. But first of all, BHP simply cannot be allowed to increase its influence over the company because their desired outcome for the company is diametrically opposed to that of most shareholders (certainly if measured by number of shareholders rather than shareholdings). At the end of the day, if they decide to takeover, they will be offering X amount of dollars and they couldn't care less whether it divided by 3bn shares or 20bn, but it matters a great deal to most of the rest of us who are invested more in Solgold than in BHP.
You should not put too much stock in the ‘sale is not shared by the market as even today the price has dropped’. The last time the market was so optimistic about a takeover was when it was in fact the least likely time for it to happen. The market is always right and always efficient. Until it isn’t.
You think BHP are the only company capable of taking Cascabel to production that is interested in it? If anything, BHP’s presence and influence was what was putting off these other parties from trying to buy in. stay away from this sector for your own good.
Many of the major mining funds are heavily invested in BHP as well. And to a much larger degree. You are assuming their preferred outcome for Solgold is the same as small or high conviction holders like ourselves or the Canadians.
It is entirely possible that no majors are circling, and for various reasons, quite a few will simply not be interested in owning Cascabel. But to suggest that it could be left on the shelf (under current conditions) simply shows you really don't understand the asset at all.