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Anything could happen, all the up to £10 'punts' have reasonable expectations behind them. But.....
Don't forget Polygon have 17%. There are the director's holdings. Polar may (or may not) put their 4%ish up for sale. Lots of PIs will want to hold out for the long game (me included).
So they may be precious little free float available to buyers (there are only 201m shares in circulation). If one or two major Pharmas and/or funds decide to take a position (they may well be competing for available shares) there could be a very sharp spike higher.
Think it through, guys, and make your plan. I am basically looking at cashing in up to 1/3rd of my holding (may be less, I have various trigger points set). Aiming to keep the 2/3rd for the end game (or dividend stream) on a free float having taken out my initial investment plus a health profit....
Good luck all.
@ Welsh Falcon
Good point on the relatively small amount of shares in SNG..
If you look at most AIM stocks they are often over 1 Billion...
Many holders in SNG are well researched and have held for
years and I believe are not looking to sell out on results..
Many will topslice..But I do not see a huge sell off...so
combine that with the small number of shares in issue
and I think many will be surprised at the SP on results day..
(Assuming they are Good of course..)
GLA!
All very useful thoughts and considerations coming out. It's less about the actual SP for me initially but more about selling strategy relative to how things may play out. My thought is that news may be subject to separate RNS messages, where more than just P3 results summary is ready to be notified. Given SNG's clear PR and accurate messaging, it may be deemed prudent not to lose key news by adding to end of results, incase missed. If so, then depending if the 'gap' is minutes, hours, or days then several spikes may occur affecting decisions on when to take initial profit, or sell up in its a quick win some may want. Just another consideration to mull over.
wpa5... RM has commented that RNS's take a lot of work (they are not a large Pharma).... and he tends to put as much info into one as possible, in order that he doesn't have to spend the time doing another one for a while.
But you are right, things do occasionally get missed because of the fact they are often so packed full of info, and it is just so exciting to get one, that I have, more than once, had to go back again to re-read more thoroughly.
Worth a reminder perhaps that 1 billion pound valuation = roughly £4.97 per share. As only 201 million shares in existence.
If you looked at a very conservative erbitda multiple of 8 then it would only take 125 million pounds worth of order to get that price.
Wasn’t immediate go it alone manufacturers capacity 100000 courses at circa £2k , they have 1.2 billion capacity straight off the bat.
Assuming the results are good of course.
But in the longer game it’s easy to see how this become a medium to high multiple of £10 per share. If….. of course .
Manifesto, do you not mean most AIM stocks are UNDER £1bn market cap?!
Doc83
No .. I mean they have over 1 billion shares in issue not referring to MCAP
e.g. UKOG 16,239M shares in issue Market Cap £16M
A pharma for comparison HEMO 980 Million Shares in issue £17M market cap
Ah, my apologies Manifesto!
Separately, I was trying to have a better read of the new website and also the job postings. Encouraging that the US Market Access Lead role says “prepare/lead initial US government procurement” but more interesting that it also says for “initiation in hospital AND home settings”.
Always easy to read too much into these things but I wonder if SNG have been given a bit of a steer on the ACTIV trial? I would imagine the wording of the job roles would have been thoroughly thought through.
There are so many nuggets in those job adverts..... I like this one with respect to the Alliance management position...... “and expanding relationships with key vendors supporting our US/global launch, initially prioritizing device manufacturing partner to ensure supply”
WF, Agree totally with your thoughts. Free float is considerably less than shares in issue, around 40% I think from rough calculations. I will say that it will be important to have movable targets if planning on top slicing and adjusting these on the content of any positive rns. Being able to actually understand what the data means and how that could relate to future orders and MCAP will be important in setting targets to sell at.
'Good point on the relatively small amount of shares in SNG..
If you look at most AIM stocks they are often over 1 Billion...'
'No .. I mean they have over 1 billion shares in issue not referring to MCAP
e.g. UKOG 16,239M shares in issue Market Cap £16M'
AIM winner has to be YU Group - 16m shares only and £45M MCap - ridiculously undervalued.
I'll find out how much so on Tuesday (T/U) !!
Good luck to all those patiently invested here also.
Strongly agree w others regarding the number of shares in issue and liquidity. Also expecting some commercial data. Gonna channel my inner North American Bullishness and say north of 20 quid.
(Working on data matching P2)
Would be slightly disappointed if positive RNS results in initial opening price at anything less than £5 ( though clearly still expecting price to go higher with succession of positive news, esp. application of EUA).
Btw: we have 201 million shares. But with all these new high level recruits, and including existing personnel, when share options are redeemed, does that mean extra shares are issued as required to these staff?
I think £1.93 at the end of Mondays trading.
If there is no RNS, the price will drop a few %.
I don’t think results RNS comes on Monday.
Will start building my stake here from Monday, been her and gone 6 times, will think myself fortunate if I can buy in Monday before the inevitable gla
Think we're looking at a 206.40 Monday closing, with a few weeks until 'the' RNS. Though, I hope i'm wrong and 7am gives us what we have been waiting for.
GLA.
OK folks, thanks for the enthusiastic entries. Below is the run-down - shout if I made any mistakes or you wish to revise your "SP at 4.30pm Monday" guess. You can make revisions until midnight tonight! I have picked the mid-way point for those who specified a price range. You MUST decide if an RNS will fall on Monday 24th Jan and based on that what the SP will be at market close (4.30pm UK). Any price rises post-Monday 24th Jan, are excluded from this competition.
Entries:
AndyB4 - £1.93
Mutting - £1.94
TheBoyg - £1.95
Oldbaldy - £2
Albayo - £2.01
Naewise - £2.10
PJx323 - £2.18
AJ316 - £4.28
Elsol - £4.75
Mack4 - +£5
Axe-Capital - £5.50
Peelweight - £5.02
Marik - £5.70
Fruitsnveg - £5.72
Woodstock £7.50
Bigjohnnywins - £7.61
Manifesto - £10'
Nelliedean - £15
Docdaneeka - £15.80
Brand - +£20
The winner will be announced at 5pm on Monday 24th January. GLA!
I will reissue the list tomorrow when a few more responses have fed through - thanks all.
£5.73 with RNS (Obviously)
Positive P3 RNS could mean anywhere between £3 and £30. It really depends what comes with it. If we’ve scraped a result, maybe £3-5. But if they also announce orders from the US then it could go anywhere!
No RNS on Monday will mean £1.90-2.10.
RNS Monday and I’ll go for a £6.20 closing price.
I wonder if RM ever pops in to see what shareholders are thinking...LOL!
No RNS close £1.89
614 for me Fruits, with the RNS of course
With RNS, I predict a closing SP of £5.20 on Monday .
Doc83,
You've got to choose -
No RNS on Monday £1.90-2.10, or
RNS Monday = £6.20 closing price
Shall I put you down for £6.20?
For the fun, rns giving £3.89.......