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You won't be buying then
My target price to buy given the current basket price remains below 50 pence.
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Bangrak
Thanks for your warnings I held 2.2 million shares in Sylvania Platinum but after reading your recent postings I sold over half of them at an average price of around 83p. Thank you for your valuable insight regarding this company.
$1.8m net profit is obviously well below what I had predicted but the sales adjustments brought it down so if you remove them the net would have been nearer the $5m I had predicted many weeks ago. You still have to remove cap-ex from this to get a true figure and consider that it's the interest generated on the cash balance that resulted in a cash increase. Plenty of warnings have been given here and I'm sure some will jump on any chance to add on the slightest increase in RH. The reality is this is not what it was and far too many people got misled by brokers and Simon who got it wrong. This is making no real profit down here and won't until there is a substantial change in RH prices.
This looks better than I had expected.
Good production numbers.
Operational gearing tells its own story when you compare bottom line profit and basket price for this quarter with those of the previous quarter.
Sylvania is still a relatively small company, with plenty of room to grow/expand. It's a bit of a leap of faith, since it depends on how well it is run. Thus far I was quite happy with how well the business is managed. The BOD has my full confidence and support.
Leadership counts.
As far as my take on the future is concerned: we would need to see a lot more will to build infrastructure to replace ICBs (so far it's lacklustre). There are many questions regarding the feasibility of moving the economy onto EVs in such short space of time. Supply of raw materials and the associated high environmental costs of their exploration are another.
I would not be surprised if eventually higher emission standards are rolles out, forcing existing ICBs to upgrade their catalytic converters as well as stronger emission controls on power plants (and other relevant parts of industry).
The time frame quoted by governments is unrealistic. Governments were never competent and efficient. Why, all of a sudden, should they be now?
So I keep holding and adding judiciously when prices are tempting.
Both interesting comments.
Personally I tend to trade minimally ( as I can make companies spike magically by selling!) - I just like to build positions and leave them unless there is clear indications that there is something amiss. I can see the basket price is way down and I expect much weaker results, but I categorise that as cyclic and thus I'm a 'hold' - I will take the divi this time. If what Lynx says comes to pass ( a drop back to 60/70 with Rh continues to climb back up then it will definitely be on my list to add at that price, but not at current price. I think some may be adding pre-exdiv which is helping the climb too.
I think investors are sunbathing on the railway, Lynx.
Can't believe it is back at 85 pence. Sure, Rh is up 25% in just a week or so, but the current Rh price is comparable to or marginally lower than the Q4 average when net profit was just 3.1musd. Pt and Pd both still about the same or marginally lower than Q4 average. Q1 profit will be trivial. Q2 at these levels might be 3musd. So let's be generous and say profit after tax of 10musd for the year to June 2024. Strip out the cash pile and this still trades on a much higher multiple than it ever has since I first invested. I'm not trying to annoy anyone with these comments and perhaps I've got things all wrong. I have no position right now. I'm happy to consider where I'm mistaken here.
Thoughts on how share price might move over the next couple of weeks? IMO, I think it will remain relatively stable at this price and we might then see a drop to high 60s / low 70s at the end of the month when it goes ex-divi and a modest (albeit expected) Q1 profit is announced based on a quarter with RH at $4.1k. However, if this happens, there could be a very attractive entry point .. particularly if RH does not revert downwards..
The increase in the price of Rhodium
Any idea what is causing the price to spike?
And Rh back over USD5,000. A bit of SP support from that after the Q1s if it really looks like the bottom is in.
Q1 results are Monday 30th October.
This goes ex divi on 26 October which is around when we can expect Q1 results (31 October last year)....
Rhodium is up c10% over the last two days though from $4100 to $4550.
Thanks for your insights and solid analysis, Bangrak.
Q4 net profit was just over USD3m on a higher basket price. Given operational gearing (for instance comparing Q4 net profit to Q3 given the basket price change), I am pretty bearish on forward PE assuming the basket stays at these levels. This is because I see Q1 net profit struggling to break even. I'd see a price drop to perhaps under 60p as the market wakes up to the real results for Q1. Cash reserves are great of course, but this share has always traded on very modest multiples.
The current share price presents a generous exit point, IMHO. I waited too long before executing my own.
DYOR, everyone.
Showing as flat line since July 24 at $4100...Any ideas?
Current spot prices (not broker assumptions) give a net of $20m
The current PER is 12.93
The current cash-adjusted PER is 6.74
Spot prices are available from anywhere and the company tells you what they spend, no need to wait for results just run a 3-month average on the spots with the correct prill split. Surely SLP are telling you what is coming by not recommencing buybacks here? If you're going to try a run into these results, think about it logically, it's obvious what coming. First, 200-day touch then reversal the 20-day will go and it will drop as momentum traders/systems leave, possibly revisiting 65p area on Q1 results, my opinion, lets see who is right, I'm not shorting it but I see a short opportunity to that level and all this is backed up with calculations and charts.
You have had your first quarter now and RH was $4k that means the net will be no more than $5m for q1 and if you removed cap ex ($15m pa) the cash flow is not a lot, so your divvy comes from the cash pile unless huge moves in RH (not happening). Your Q1 results come out at the end of October you will see this. I mentioned weeks ago that the broker had not made a downgrade but I've noticed now the consensus of brokers for 2024 is now a more sensible $28m not $40+ which is what I've been saying for months, this used to make that in one quarter. You noticed the house broker didn't actually issue a note telling you this revenue downgrade have you? and your greens have gone to yellows. Let's see what happens to this hot run when the reality of $4k RH lands in Q1 figures, this isn't Bitcoin it trades in accordance with its profits that are linked to spot prices.
... I'll be a monkey's uncle if this doesn't run hot and bullish for the next 3 or 4 months.
... It's a sentiment and cyclical thing :)
"Once reality is back in fashion, people might consider stricter emission controls as a viable way forwards."
We have seen what people think of stricter emission controls with the expansion of the ULEZ zone to cover all of outer London. The Labour party have lost by-election seats that they expected to win, people are damaging cameras, and poorer people have been forced off the road, as second hand car prices have shot up. Many cannot afford £12:50 every time they take the car out to go shopping.
It might be well and good if these measures would have any effect on global warming. But, as the UK is only responsible for 1% of worldwide emissions, our sacrifice will be next to worthless.
Https://matthey.com/products-and-markets/pgms-and-circularity/pgm-management/
Do the custom date selection for 12 months. Then graph up Rh, Pt and Pd.
Then have a read of the latest (excellent) Matthey analysis.
Punk is coming...
100% correct LunaNera my thoughts exactly.
Indeed.
Once reality is back in fashion, people might consider stricter emission controls as a viable way forwards.
Sunak means dog where i live............. Rhodium going up is the only thing good for SLP, Q1 average is $4.1k meaning they make virtually no free cash. To get to the $13k the broker thinks as an average you need a whopping rise. The only thing that will change the price of Rhodium are mines closing as they cannot survive with a low basket and/or China suddenly reverting from a 1-2% monthly growth rate in EV sales (36% ev sales July) and making ICE cars again. Electric car registrations in EU went up 118.1% to 165.2 thousand units in August, 21% of the market.
There is no "time will tell here" It is very obvious if you care to dyor, any idea how many sq km of rocks need to be dug up using average grades in CU just to provide the copper requirements in a 100% EV world?....who has all the magnet material REM's.....before we discuss environment you need to consider whats happening in the real world & that cars don't do damage .....Coal-fired power stations in India & China cause all the problems, that is not changing soon so your EV adoption in the UK does absolutely sweet FA even if it was pushed back 500 years. China & India call the shots on climate.