Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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UK car sales by fuel type 2023 (Until the end of November)
Percentage of new petrol, diesel and electric passenger car sales (source: SMMT)
Fuel type Market share
Petrol 41%
Diesel 4%
Hybrid* 39%
Pure electric 16%
So only 16% of new UK cars (Pure Electric) contain no PGM catalytic converter!
Hybrid* = Mild hybrid petrol, Mild hybrid diesel, Plug-in hybrid, Self-charging hybrid
Bangrak Thanks for your postings I sold over half my holding late last year after reading your negative comments about Sylvania Platinum. As I had a very significant holding following your advice has saved me a lot of money.
Sage words from Bangrak. At current basket prices, 45 pence is where this starts to look a bit more attractive to me, but it's hardly a steal even there.
My FY2024 profit prediction at USD10-12m from some weeks back looks rather optimistic today.
Cash will gradually be eroded from here, absent a change in basket prices or a significant increase in production (which they're working on) or some strong cost cutting. A number of people invested for the dividend; expect a sober analysis and outlook on that front in the interims towards the end of Feb.
This is a well-run company. An investment opportunity may well recur. Of course, if the basket price rallies then current prices may look defensible. But for now, it's still over-valued, I believe. Surprised it didn't drop more yesterday.
After some analysis I'm still sticking with the $5m a quarter as a base, current per is 9.8, cash adjusted (CA) 2 is 44p 3 is 50p 5 is 61p...its hitting its head on that CA 5 ratio so perhaps it needs a 20% gain to entice traders into this one. Based on a wide view i would be cautious about jumping in immediately myself until at least there was a distinct improvement in Rh or it bottomed between cash at 32p and the CA 3 50p That is good value despite the targeted $14m profit not $32m as i see it. Also worth looking at the monthly MACD and this will explain why the price has slid for many months. That IMHO needs to bottom first. The destocking by automakers has not happened as predicted yet, but it could. Worth remembering that my analysis suggesting 60p a few months ago was laughed at and many suggested blocking me now it's in the 50's. PGM's have done this, no comments from anyone will make ANY difference up or down. Our goal is the same, the broker's goal is not the same.
I've just had a quick look at the house broker update.....Page 3 for 2024 profit after tax is shown as $32m. So you have 2024 H1 over and a PAT of $3.3m and the broker still thinks that the total PAT will still be $32m. Exactly how do you manage to get a clear profit of $28m in the next 2 quarters mr "paid" broker?
Over to Simon for an IC update, and then more fresh meat enters the corporate grinder.
Should turnaround soon enough..
Gla.
Rhodium price is slowly climbing actually.
Up 10% from the lows.
Now at $4,500 or so.
Current shareholder register appears to have been swapped with the Bash Street Kids classroom one....
Hairy ✔
Flabby ✔
Bonkers ✔
Agreed the basket price is the pits right now but still making small profit and with big cash pile plus assets worth even more than cash pile it only takes a shift upwards in the basket price to double the SP here.
Hope so Hairy
Looking at your previous pessimistic posts on pretty much every board you post on, maybe share trading isn't for you flabby. We made a profit of over $1.5 million for the quarter, so people are interested in our products. Could be better yes, but this is an AIM company making a profit, Q3 also looks to be a gamechanger in adding company value.
Bit of a nightmare really for me. Thought i had found a company that was well run and profitable but it seems they are mining products no one wants or is willing to pay a decent price for. i have now lost more than half of my investment and may as well stay as i would have thought the bottom must be cash value!
If the market doesn't value the product you are selling at what point do you just stop selling it?
i am not sure what the answer is here as we appear to have a product that isn't valued properly. We can wait until the price goes up again but what are the chances of that. Commodity prices are cyclical but is that the case here?
Bangrak, something like what when what they mine sells for less than it costs to extract, exactly how to reduce costs and what if this long secular price fall continues as seems likely…
The issue here is AIC is now $1096, net basket is $1047. Down here it's Zero cash as mentioned, they need to do something, costs are now too high.
USD1.559m.
Cash USD107.2m
Looks like they had a lot of typing to do so the Quarterly figures will be tomorrow plus all the other news which has been building for the past months which should show a bright future.
The quarterly figures with a similar production could be $3-$5 million net as not much change in the basket price but if they brought everything on line during the quarter we could see a boost. Basket price it seems to have reached a bottom so looking forward to what they have to say
Looks like it might be tomorrow then lol
Quarterly production figures tomorrow hopefully!
This should bottom around 40s…definitely not rushing back in yet
True enough, Dave. I might well buy in at a lower price. I guess my valuation doesn't include interest income on the cash pile, so that could raise it a bit.
I've tried to back up my thoughts with some maths. Of course, I might well be wrong. Nothing anybody writes on these boards has any effect on the price though, even at the small-cap end of the market. I should've sold my whole position at over a £1, but I got a bit attached, so my final sale was 79 pence. Hope I won't make that mistake again.
The reason I post here, is that I've followed the share for a long time, and under-and over-valuations appear easier to spot than on most shares. It's not an attempt to annoy anyone.
What if you are not a pair of traders hoping for a lower entry price?
Net assets of around $240 million, making a net profit even on low basket price and sharing the profit with shareholders.
DYOR
...is maybe £120-125m for SLP at the moment on prudent assumptions. So under 50 pence.
The cash pile after the Dec dividend was about £87m.
I used a PE of five on predicted profit after tax.
It still looks over-valued and the market is beginning to reflect that.
Great business. Good management team. Price too rich.
Someone mentioned a potential for a bid. Possible if you were very bullish on ICE vehicles (I am!) But what impact would a take-private have on the Samancor offtake?
DYOR
Q, It's not doing Zilch it was contributing $6.5m (net interest) to the figures, remove this $6.5m and add in the cap ex $15m and your zero cash flow in the real world. Your net profit of $5m a quarter doesn't have the cap ex included, therefore the dividend policy states a % of cashflow i recall which is nothing much down here, so why would anyone be fantasizing about some exciting dividend when it's dropped 20%?. I don't get the point about the price of Rh and the AIC, what matters here is the net basket price per oz based on the prill split and the actual AIC for SLP 4% diff. Cash adjusted 2-3 is where I'm buying there is 20% to be made at that level imo then out.
Nobody mentioned "special" dividend.
When (which Quarter) did SLP last fail to make a profit?
Rh is still more than double the price of gold with a fraction of the AIC (all-in-costs)
Either put the cash to use or distribute it but do not leave it doing zilch.