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Here's a reminder of how Shel and Brent have tracked each other since last October: https://invst.ly/149b6k
It's worth noting that, in charts like this, the Brent line is based on the daily closing price which occurs a few hours later than the LSE market close at 4.30pm - so they are not exactly in sync and, this morning, OP has slipped back a little since yesterday's LSE close. This 15 minute chart of OP v Oil Co's gives a more precise picture of the moves (the price scale is approximate): https://invst.ly/149be1
Wael Sawan - I think it is more than just an early warning, but big companies can direct Governments, particularly with elections in the offing;
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/shell-threatens-quit-london-york-111116631.html
Hi Ggp thank you for the article and good point about the companies and governments, but would politicians listen I doubt it. It’s funny tho how the CEO is quick to complain about the lagging SP compare to US companies but never once mentions how US companies never cut the dividend during Covid where as Shell and BP took advantage to rebased it to suit them. Is all about selective bias really, but onwards and upwards and may SP carries on and let’s see what Q1 holds on 2nd of May after last Friday trading update and BP’s update today.
Hi1 Larry - really good to read your take on things. I may well use your description of "selective bias" at some point, or "selective memory," at least. A big buddy from school was an MP for almost 25-years so my views are aligned with yours on the listening skills of Governments.
I think when we look back on Sawan's tenure at Shell he will be seen as a master-strategist. As Shell knows super-tankers are very difficult to turn around, but for me he is doing an excellent job and relatively speaking, at pace. If anyone is in any doubt on this try discussing the topic with a BP shareholder.
Certainly Sawan is trying to raise Shell's SP, and close the gap, by stating that New York might be on the radar. But he is also demonstrating that Shell will not passively accept being a pawn for the soon to be electioneering parties in the UK. For me he might even be trying to boost the share-price as a prelude to a hostile takeover attempt. Maybe he is thinking along the lines of following the current fashion of buying a US oil company & attempting to mitigate any regulatory hurdles with a bit of hearts and minds strategy. Maybe he is indirectly trying to highlight some of BP's comparative weaknesses, with a view to a possible merger or takeover.
Exciting stuff though, to balance against yet another rainy UK day.
Hi Ggp I concur about Sawan’s tenure and I liked his approach and leadership skills and focus in the company especially after watching the Q3 update during Q&A sessions with the analysts as per my post on 02/11/2023. And I think the share price will move up if those actions are fruitful, that is excluding any unforeseen catalyst that could derail everything imho.
I also agree he is trying to close the gap with US peers or even the takeover you’ve mentioned, I just founded a bit funny about the dividend cut being left out because I sure a lot of institutional investors who can move a SP like the income funds must have sold it after the cut and moved the money elsewhere with better returns.
Interesting comments in this thread - including a reminder of the dividend cut and the swing to buybacks (GaFG knows my views on that issue). I've been steadily taking profits here as the sp moves towards a potential ceiling but I'm reluctant to close out completely below 3000. Here is Shel 's sp against XOM and CVX since late 2019, prior to the divi cut: https://invst.ly/14c2v7
Hard to argue against that!
I think we would all prefer to have the higher dividends than the buybacks.
Boyo - I have to admit I was starting to need an injection of common sense from the resident Welsh Chart Wizard. Against my better judgement I was starting to think ceiling what ceiling! Like you taking gains I was actually considering bailing out, until Wael Sawan started singing New York, New York!
I know that it will make your day to know that I have modified my view on buy-backs prospectively being the absolute Holy Grail. I accept that we have to ween ourselves off fossil fuels, if we have time, albeit with peak oil production day being some years away yet, and zero fossil fuel day being maybe 50 or 60 years away, or never! I really see buy-backs now as being essential in incrementally supporting the SP in an inevitably declining market place, but also as Sawan says he sees them as a great investment in an undervalued company.
What changed my view was largely down to thinking about Shell's decision to divest 500 of their filling stations a year over the next two years. On the face of it pretty significant stuff. Until you think that Shell has 12,500 filling stations so that at this rate of attrition it will take 25-years for Shell to divest all of its fossil fuel filling stations - which takes it to around 2050. So maybe Shell has realistically modelled, and is definitely planning for, zero fossil fuel day as being 25-years away and counting.
As an aside, I recently bought some more shares in Deltic Energy. Shell is Deltic's big-brother partner in the North Sea Pensacola and Selene fields. Selene was recently farmed out to include Dana as an additional new partner in the project, but leaving Deltic with a 25% share of any commercially recoverable oil after covering all drilling costs. A risky, but interesting play. Deltic's 2023 Final Results should be out on Thursday the 18th April with update announcements presumably.
It’s nice to see a good strong Close today nearer the new 52 weeks high 2873 made today, after a hotter than expected US inflation figures drove all the indexes into the red earlier.
Boyo - it is going to be really interesting to find out whether we are looking at a glass ceiling, or even more than one of them if £29 shatters - will some of us then be Shell-Shocked!
Have held a lot of these for a long long time now as one of my main core holdings, average £12.52. but getting very tempted for only the second time ever to sell a few thousand. £29 is a cracking price.
Boyo - are you quiet, because we've gone off the chart!
Hi Ggp are you getting too dizzy at this height now :-) but it’s a nice problem to have isn’t it.
That’s why I like to have a price guide/pointers to see the trend direction, so today I’m gonna see if it closes above my short term price guide/pointer £2905 first b4 I can even think about my medium and longer term price guides/pointers. I can only hope so let’s see what the future holds :-) IMHO DYOR
This is new territory now, hope the rise continues. I still have a load of them, with exceptional life changing profits all tax free.
The dividend yield is getting poorer with the rise, that is the only issue I have.
Larry - Yes, a fantastic problem to have, but commodity prices have a habit of derailing what with hindsight we might view as irrational exuberance or groundless optimism! Certainly the dramatic 92p boost to the SP when the IDF destroyed the Iranian Consulate in Damascus was difficult to foresee, but some event or other was likely to inflame the situation & threaten a dramatic widening & escalation of the Gaza conflict.
Now the extent and depth of the Iranian response is part of the calculation. In the background can the US afford Iran to become a nuclear power, especially when it has sworn the destruction of Israel - No! £29 is rarefied air territory as you say, £30 is appearing on the radar. Interest rates not coming down as quickly as they might have, with the stubborn US jobs boom continuing, ongoing property company issues in China etc. Certainly a time to recalibrate what you think is possible or likely!
Yield should be better than current with your long held holding LittleAston?
Recall you posting that you had a good few - 30k? - some years back, so will also have a low average.
Only remember as i used to have a rental prop in Stockland Grn and understood you to be localish from past postings.
Hi Ggp that’s a good observation and you summed up well of life uncertainties. I agree your analysis there and I also look forward to see £30 too and may the momentum keep carry on and I hope Q1 update will be a nice one to keep it going. have a good weekend all.
Daytradenovice,
Yes, I use to live in Little Aston, just off the Roman Road, did a self build. Stockland Green just around the corner near Erdington.
I have rental properties in Dudley which are doing good.
I left Little Aston not too long ago and moved to Rugby, bought a 20 acre farm.
Re: Shell my max holding was 56773 shares, however I am now down to 41893 shares. so yes my yield is fantastic, but at current prices, it is poor. I prefer the likes of LGEN and have a bit stashed away there as well. Bought into JD, sold them all on update and bought them back today, more of a growth share in my view.
I spend a lot of time trading, yes making a small fortune, but want more.
LittleAston
Well thats a fair few more than i remembered and quite a chunky chunk, makes my 13500 look a bit paltry in the scheme of things.
Fair play to you on the move, big change from being in the thick of Brum i bet.
My former rental there was by the resr, huge big double fronted victorian place, four stories up and big extension out the back, huge monster of a place. Was my last rental to be sold, just too far from home in Cornwall to be managing it, shame as had that one for over 10 years and it owed me nothing. At least Dudley is a little closer for you, so sounds ideal.
I tend to look at the income yield relative to my buy price, rather than current market value one vs div %. For example, last pile of BP i bought @ 276, now a tad under double the current sp, so i yield approx double the current headline yield of 4% on those in real cash 'from my pocket' terms.
Have a few LGEN too, as well as PHNX, trying to spread money around a bit better than i did previously, only downside is more to keep an eye out for. So much effort trading so i tend to stick with them for the long term and let compounding work its magic.
Excellent Strategic Market View
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Javier-Blas-10-Things-Oil-Traders-Need-to-Know-About-Irans-Attack-on-Israel.html
You posted previously that your shareholdings are tax free wouldnt mind knowing how to sell some shares off without paying tax on them im sure a few others would like to know as well
Read up on stocks and shares ISA's - they are very simple to understand. In the last few days you could have sheltered £40,000 from tax - that is a £20,000 allowance each side of the financial year just ended!
First rule in trading is open an ISA lol
Yes i have an isa and a trading account but i cant understand why littleaston has 41000 shares in an isa account is that possible?
Whom said I had them in a ISA alone, these are also in a Sippy as well