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I agree.
If you look at the sales volume it looks really exciting as we head through Q2-Q4 2024:
2023 - sales total £8m vs capacity £8m (100%)
Q1 - sales total £3m vs capacity £3m (100%)
Q2e - sales £4m vs capacity £7m (57%)
Q3e - sales £4.8m vs capacity £7m (69%)
Q4e - sales £5.8 vs capacity £9m (64%)
If they can manage to get sales to 100% capacity level (and bear in mind we’ve been told before that they can sell as many as they can make), then we’re at £26m for 2024.
If capacity levels are also at the lower end, who knows what we can get to?
Sorry that should be ‘tailwinds’
‘Total disconnect between share price and value’
The chairman should be more careful giving financial advice, stating that shareholder ‘will’ get a reward from here. All seems very confident. The figures are all based on worse case senarios. they are going for under promise and over deliver. Cash headroom calculations dont include open offer which is extra.
Key headwinds are EV uptake and upcoming legislation around brake dust pollution which I will have to look into. Order book is secure, we have a better product than the only competitor and operational issues being dealt with.
I anticipate more institutional investment coming in.
Management finally addressed shareholders' questions, concerns and anger although it took Bundred an hour into the presentation to acknowledge the anger and bitterness which many have expressed. On balance, it's less likely the company will become insolvent, which was my major concern and I have made a modest investment today having dumped my holdings nearly a month ago.
Just watching the presentation - the COO - Stephen Easton is impressive.
“Scrappage was 25% in 1Q24, well down from 2023, and SCE states the current quarter’s 17% expectation.”
Great progress 👍
Fairly well balanced. Key for me is:
The £390m order book and the environmental benefits are robust. The furnace maintenance issue reported last year, at the heart of the process, has been addressed. The cash-damaging scrappage problems have been reduced, as methodology has matured from a development-style process.
We have an in demand product with a strong margin. They will buy whatever we can produce. Ramping up production to meet demand was always going to be tricky and imo they tried to do too much too quickly buys it’s given a great opportunity to get in at the bottom of what will be a strong turnaround story.
I think we’ll see April’s sales at £2m, with stronger yield numbers, over 80%.
I also believe we’ll see a good reduction in scrappage.
Any sign of green shoots of positive progress and we’ll see 1.5-2p in a shot.
Agreed.
Expectations are low, at bankruptcy level essentially. We are almost worth less than the cash we have in the bank…
Anything that suggests survival will be soaked up like a parched sponge accepts water. And the sponge will spring into life.
Here’s hoping anyway!
And what about management change?
Think we will see sub 1p, but 0.75p might be the floor.
I can only see positives coming out of today’s presentation. Final furnace installation, reduction of scrap, contract pipeline, current manufacturing capacity, progress on loan access.. I have added my questions regarding these
Yeah, and with the level of dilution coming there’s going to be a number of TR-1s coming through, all of them looking at first glance like there’s a massive sell-off happening when their % of the total is the only thing that’s changed.
We need to be sure we’re not talking about holders selling out if it’s not actually the case 👍
I expect the Odd Investments 22M is a part of the 1p placing, not a market purchase. The 5% is also a fiction if it is 22M since there will be over 1Bn shares out there after it all settles. That will take Mr Odd back under 3%.
Oh yes that’s right, the Canaccord and director shares were issued yesterday.
The RNS states that it is due to “An event changing the breakdown of voting rights”.
They hold the same amount as they did back in 2022.
I think you are right. Looks like a disposal to fund the purchase of Open Offer shares.
After all if they had lost confidence and wanted out they could have emulated our friend the Livermore lookalike and dumped the lot.
Yes they sold 0.9%. Could be to fund the open offer shares which are 15% cheaper.
So this 5pm RNS is a dump?
Correct?
TY.
Yes, they're clearly confident in SCE
The key part is section 7:
Resulting situation on the date on which threshold was crossed or reached 5.13% (The new holding)
Position of previous notification (if applicable): (Blank mean 0% held before the declaration date)
Bridgedogg1 can you explain how to read that TR-1 to know that its a buy please? i cant never read these
So we now know who's been gobbling up at least some of this volume - ODD Asset Management, now at over 5%. Anyone have any idea who this lot are? Seems that the ODD bit comes from the family name, which is a little unfortunate if you ask me. Alexander (Alex) Odd is also CEO at Tyndall Asset Management - now sure if they're a long time holder here? He's ex M&G and Jupiter, so should be no mug.
Interesting buy for a small investment company. They currently have around £200k, must have been building over a few days because they certainly didnt pick it all up yesterday. Expect to see more of these in the coming weeks. A great vote of confidence.
Profile
Mr. Edward R.
Allen, CFA, is an Investment Director at Odd Asset Management Ltd.
He began his career at Thurleigh Investment Managers in 2003, where he was the Partner responsible for the client team and business development.
Thurleigh was acquired by Ingenious Asset Management, which was subsequently bought by Tilney Bestinvest.
In 2017 he co-founded Tyndall’s private client investment management business.
He became a CFA Charter holder in 2008 and completed his MBA with the Open University in 2015.