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I expect that’s been happening over a long period. The main Dowgate guy that the company dealt with has retired, Dowgate have since had a run in with the FCA about putting clients in illiquid holdings and their investment business recently got taken over by Singer, so it’s no surprise they’ve sold down. None of it to do with the company itself which is in its best shape for a long timescales!

British investment managers have little risk appetite. Nice then to see a US outfit get involved with the heart valve business at RUA.

Plenty were buying in the 20’s but they get cold feet when it drops. I’ve added 50k today at under 18 average. Let the sellers carry on.

That’s true Mr Big, some 40M of them!

That being said, that was 2.5 years ago and I estimate at least 10M shares have been sold since. All between 9 and 14p for the most part. They will feel regret should this share start rising through 30p, 40p etc in time. Once it goes, I think it goes quick. That should reward both the patient and those recently come aboard who are not seeking a quick turn.

Volume of 100k shares on today’s down day was a third of each of the previous two days where 300k+ was recorded on each strong up day. Suggests little selling interest overall compared to demand.

Chart of CML last year shows three attempts were made to clear 325p before being knocked back, one of those briefly touched 345p. This time the run up was longer and momentum took it to 375p so with resistance broken, a pull back to that 325-345 level is to be expected before a renewed run north. Simple technical rules like this often hold true. With a better business outlook to come at the interim results on 17th June, this should help the sentiment shift consolidate.

Hi Ted, I’ve followed CML for many years but not always been invested in it. My interest picked up again last year when the Microwave guy effectively turned down $2M cash and took 4% of CML in shares instead at 262p. That had to mean something. The US acquisition is likely to be important.

The recent frenzy in space related stocks also made me consider if CML would be included in the momentum since they are top people in RF comms gear etc.

That swung the balance for me so I bought back in with a few thousand of them about four weeks ago (280p average) so I’ll see how it runs!

Per RNS of 28th April:

CML Microsystems Plc

("CML", the "Company" or the "Group")

Notice of Results

CML, which develops mixed-signal, RF and microwave semiconductors for global communications markets, announces that it will now publish its preliminary full year results on Wednesday 17 June 2026.

Analyst Presentation

Chris Gurry, Group Managing Director and Nigel Clark, Non-Executive Chairman, will be hosting an in-person presentation for analysts at 9:30 a.m. on the same day at the offices of Alma Strategic Communications. Analysts wishing to attend should email cml@almastrategic.com for further information.

I’m not that bothered parsons! BB owns around 600k and has options over another 2m+ with 1.4m of those being at the last raise price of 11p. The other directors have some too. I’d say they are well motivated already. Also, I think it’s a close period now before the interims are released at end of June. If any of the directors were minded, they could buy after that although they always seem to be negotiating deals under NDA’s so might they be restricted from dealing in some of those cases?

I don’t know but, from my investment viewpoint, it’s not that important to see director buying at this time. I know from having met all the key people at the AGM that they are all motivated and excited, which included the senior engineers who were there too. I’m happy to rely on that for now.

I’m kind of ok with “no news”, Mr Big. The interim numbers were always going to be lukewarm with the ABISS dip and the heart valve R&D costs still depressing the bottom line. Getting that (expected) “news” into the market without spooking the nervous holders is a good thing and maybe we - and the market - can look forward to benefitting from the upward profit moves in the second half thanks to the spin out of the heart business and signing up of new CDMO business.

We are told that in the second half there will be a one off £4.9m non-cash gain to reflect the full value of the previously written down investment in the heart valve development to date (as RUA now owns an interest paying loan instrument in the HV spin off). RUA will start to earn £240k a year in interest from that. RUA will also save £500k in HV related costs and might recognise up to £500k in CDMO development contracts. If any or all of those contracts convert to manufacturing deals, there could be £5m a year of new business going forward in the future years.

So, no news is good news!

As expected, the interim numbers won’t be anything special. We already knew ABISS was behind due to its main customer adjusting its stock levels. We are told that should start to recover in H2 as they agree schedules going forward for the next two years.

CDMO in the UK based business is going well and there are significant opportunities for large growth with several development contracts on the go that could lead to an eventual doubling of turnover there on long term manufacturing deals.

Going forward, the Structural Heart costs will be gone from the RUA accounts following the spin out just announced. Those will be funded by the independent business following the deal with Leducq to develop a heart valve using Aurtex.

I expect the market won’t see that initially but we are used to that here!

I’m very glad funds were not raised in a placing by the PLC (assuming they could even have got one away in a micro cap without severe dilution). This kind of project needs US style funding from private funds that are prepared to take a risk while recognising the entrepreneurial value already built into the investment. I have always wanted to see some US interest in our heart valve R&D for that reason.

The fact that this has been done leaving the quoted PLC with a fast growing and profitable device business and a blue sky investment with huge option upside while not diluting the PLC share base is a work of some repute.

Way happier to have a solid percentage of some unknown, possibly large, reward than to own 100% of a risky adventure with no real hope of financing it for too long without needing a massively diluted fund raise later. I would question whether the latter route would be a false economy in terms of eventual share dilution in the PLC down the road.

You have to laugh at the idea that people have sold RUA Life Sciences because of the “convertible loan note”. This usually is because a company issues a CLN to raise funds but in this case RUA Life Sciences, the company you own shares in, is the buyer of £4.8m loan notes. It owns the note and will earn 5% on it (via an in kind mechanism) which will show as income in the accounts. It is the investment vehicle RUA Structural Heart that has issued the loan notes (to RUA Life Sciences and Leducq).

From what I can tell, RUA Life Sciences had to date financed RUA SH to the tune of £4.8m via inter company loans so that’s effectively been repaid to RUA Life Sciences by way of loan notes that, going forward, attract a regular income and a future right to a 20% discount on any future funding round after successful pre-clinical work by SH.

I’ll need to do more headspace thinking around the numbers mentioned by TickTockCrock :)

Apologies for double post..

Dead right, Globex. A bit like holding a beach ball underwater for so long that aching arms meant we had to let it go! The ball could fly high quickly after being held down under such pressure.

At the AGM, the directors seemed bullish. I heard there that they have been receiving plenty of enquiries about contract manufacturing and that there are not so many specialist textile medtech experts and even less that want business with products that are not already approved or close to that. RUA are well-established in this field and offer services all the way down the development chain, not just making approved products. They are fast establishing themselves as a small but growing, dependable, partner with some big names in medical devices.

They also talked confidently about what was needed to move the heart valve industry into the next stage of evolution which is using materials that do not rely on animal by-products, for reasons of utility as well as supply chain issues currently limiting current technology.

Dead right, Globex. A bit like holding a beach ball underwater for so long that aching arms meant we had to let it go! The ball could fly high quickly after being held down under such pressure.

At the AGM, the directors seemed bullish. I heard there that they have been receiving plenty of enquiries about contract manufacturing and that there are not so many specialist textile medtech experts and even less that want business with products that are not already approved or close to that. RUA are well-established in this field and offer services all the way down the development chain, not just making approved products. They are fast establishing themselves as a small but growing, dependable, partner with some big names in medical devices.

They also talked confidently about what was needed to move the heart valve industry into the next stage of evolution which is using materials that do not rely on animal by-products, for reasons of utility as well as supply chain issues currently limiting current technology.

Excellent summing up, Nick. Clearly, on the sum of the parts basis, it is easy to argue that the group as a whole could command well north of £1 per share, maybe £1.50 to £2 if the HoT converts to a solid funding proposition with a big player while the contract projects all convert in the next year or two. On top of that, Biomaterials provides a solid foundation and safety net with the added juice that its own revenues will increase along with any project that gains traction using Elasteon in the materials. Eg, heart valve leaflets and new implantable devices under development.

Meanwhile, we bob along at a £12m market cap, almost unnoticed, at 20p. Time to whistle a tune while I wait….

Having been involved in commercial deals in the past, the home stretch is often the longest to complete. That is to due to the constant back and forth between legal teams, with one party suggesting changes to wording or small terms leading to the other party revisiting the overall effect of those changes and going back with their own agreements or changes. Eventually the iterations end with a meeting of minds (usually!) but “tomorrow never comes”.

I’m personally not banking on tomorrow, Monday or any near date. Something this key can take as long as it likes, so long as it gets there. Anything earlier is a bonus!

Hybridan’s broker note argued for the CDMO business to be worth around 35p a share just on its current numbers, using a conservative standard average exit multiple of 5.4x revenues. Yet, there seems a realistic chance turnover could double in the “shorter term” based on what the company has in development contracts that could convert to manufacturing contracts. In addition, a similar business sold for 9x revenues a few years back.

We are also waiting to see if the “heads of terms” that the company has signed with a heart valve major (on funding a pre-clinical project using Aurtex for a “specific need” in heart valves) turns into a deal for that funding. Having a major contributing cash in this way has got to have decent value as it would be a huge endorsement for the technology.

Even RUA Biomaterials, the legacy royalty earner for Elasteon used in the medical world, has a basic value of £5m on current royalty streams and it sounds like these numbers could materially increase as and when deals are signed for manufacturing products involving Elasteon, in the future.

I feel the combination of the AGM update and the Hybridan note has helped unstick some of the rusty joints in this share having been sat at the same price range for two years despite all of the obvious advances that have been made since.

It is easy to argue for a market cap in excess of £50m on the basis of the above progress. That would be over 80p a share. Hopefully, the company can update us soon on some of the above, especially the Aurtex deal, and add further impetus to the current share price.

Great post, NickE. This current share price could look extremely silly a few months down the line if most of the objectives set out by the board are met or gain traction this year. The good thing is that they have only stated things that have some backing in terms of agreed development contracts or signed term sheets. This is in line with their stated intention only to announce deals as they are secured. On that basis, I would not have expected the heads of terms to be mentioned in the RNS if they were not confident of seeing it through to a formal agreement.

I saw a piece recently by a well respected investor in shares who said he always looks out for genuine positive commentary from the board as a guide to future prospects.

The RUA CEO’s summing up of the AGM trading update should be revisited as an example.

Two key points for me in there were:

- Referencing of the past doubling of the scale of the CDMO business and stating that there is now “visibility for this rate of growth to continue”. RATE OF GROWTH! That seems to be confidence in doubling the scale yet again. Given much of the factory infrastructure and capacity is already owned, that bodes well for the potential profits to accelerate to the bottom line.

- Referencing that the “value of the IP and products being developed are being recognised by customers and partners alike and we look forward to further step changes in the business”. This seems to state that the VALUE of the IP AND products under development (likely to include the heart valve material AurTex as well as all ancillary discovery spin offs from the vascular graft work) could be monetised in some form in the near to medium future.

“CUSTOMERS AND PARTNERS ALIKE” seems to be a sweeping endorsement and suggests that the days of scepticism by industry are over.

“FURTHER STEP CHANGES IN THE BUSINESS”. A bold and confident assertion to end with! Given the board are not usually overtly “promotional”, this all seems encouragingly upbeat.

The heart valve progression looks encouraging. It should not be underestimated what a vote of confidence it is should a major commit to funding the first stage of work on a potentially next generation product.

It’s also very exciting if the prospects are there of a shorter term further doubling of contract manufacturing revenues. With the margins they command, this could shine a light on the currently dislocated share price.

In 2022, Aran Biomedical, which conducted a similar CM business to RUA, was acquired by Integer Holdings Corp for €120m which priced Aran at 9 times revenues. If RUA is looking at £10M of annual revenues in the “shorter term”, that multiple alone is over £1 per RUA share, before thinking of heart valves…..

Fair comments Greeneyes. The contract manufacturing scenario looks very good. In my view, if RUA secures funding from a heart valve company for any stage of proceedings, that will be significant because it will be a partnership with a major, with a concomitant effect on the share price.