Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
The main uncertainty exercising the market right now is getting over the cash flow hump. The company reckons they’ll have around £2.5M in the bank by year end 31/12. Once the market can see the company becoming cash flow positive with full production and not needing any further cash raise in the meantime, then the share price should get cracking. Until then, I hope the interim update next week demonstrates production moving ahead as forecast leading to a full year revenue number of £16M.
The new CFO has been in place for two weeks so will be getting her teeth into the numbers as we type. New COO likewise. Let’s hope they haven’t found holes in the processes!
These risks explain why the share price is half where it was last year so to a great extent priced in? That’s the judgement you make investing now. We should know more about the outlook tomorrow but the company seemed upbeat in May. Will they have seen any deterioration since? We should find out tomorrow.
8% div yield also attractive but will that be maintained? Let’s see.
Yes, andypa, and they continue to guide to existing 2023 revenues which are £20M I believe. As H1 only delivered £3.3M, that is over £16M for H2. The key over the next five months is to get over that cash hump. It’s clearly still reducing until they reach the point of profitability which must be in this period as they still expect a profit in H2. But they also plan to spend £3.5M on capex to achieve the resilience needed to cover the customers needs when there are stoppages in production for whatever reason.
The new CFO will probably arrive just as cash is crunching into its pinch point before profits start to be generated. What fun for her and good luck.
I hold plenty!
Conversely, maybe those promises were based on what Michael Cunningham told the board. We can’t know why he decided to go or whether he was encouraged to leave. Perhaps the board felt the need for more experience at finance level as they have done for the operational level.
Whatever the case, I’ve accumulated a decent lot today at 28p. The 2023 and 2024 guidance was not changed according to the AGM statement so I wonder if the market overreacted in what is after all a ropey small cap market sentiment generally.
Way too much hand wringing. So many of the sellers bought within the last week on the update. They are momentum chasers, just punters and they are being spooked out by MM’s who know the score and what to do.. I keep records of trades and it’s easy to see those that bought and sold at the first sign of a drop. Only one of those trades has made any money, the rest all lost cash in next to no time. Rank amateurism and most don’t even know what this company is seeking to change in the industry. Thanks to them, I’ve been able to snaffle a few more K’s at 54p region. So kind.
This is a volatile share for sure but if you know why you invested you probably don’t need to keep checking the score. I am one of those but I can’t help myself! I like to see how it’s being bought. Sellers just allow for buying ops on days like these.
It’s interesting that Corcym is mainly into heart valves which happens to be the other large area of interest in RUA’s pipeline. If this deal suggests that Corcym and its VC owner, Gyrus Capital, are interested in all aspects of RUA’s potential products, that should give some comfort to shareholders.
Augustus, the price is battling to get past 50p right now as there is a persistent seller but the selling appears to be orderly, matching the buying pressure that is coming in. My information is that Amati did not reduce in the last quarter of 2022 but I have noted a lot of block sales each day recently at 47.5p so there is a programme in play from someone who has reasons to want out. You have to bear in mind that there are a lot of burnt investors out there right now so culling of speculative positions regardless of potential is the name of the game. It certainly was in 2022!
One breakthrough RNS from RUA should do the trick.
Anyone who has not yet seen the webinar recording of 12/12/22 (link in my opening post of this thread) should take a listen IMO and form their own views.
Augustus, you referring to this?
https://twitter.com/foursidedfiver/status/1611711442956480512?s=46&t=LRTmLqsPnPy70lW3MjI-Hg
Happy to see it play out back to 150p!
Good to see that the new CFO is prepared to shell out £10k+ at 54.2p just after being granted options over 120k shares at 44p. Those options don’t kick in for 3 years and 50% are not available unless the company has a product approved by regulators in the market. In that scenario, the share price should be well ahead anyway!
This is the webinar recording via Youtube:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vo7Z6W-hqaY
Best watch and form your own views. Mine is that it was as positive as I have heard them for a while. A lot has been building in this company and, one day, something will come flying out of it. The shares have been aggressively sold all year so I believe the market cap is way too cautious. Granted, an equity raise is likely once the trial parameters for the grafts are known but we are talking a small clinical trial NOT involving drugs. All they are seeking to do is demonstrate equivalence with an existing product in the marketplace and most here believe this is better than the current technologies.
Grafts are only a part of this company. They have two businesses already making profits and expanding.
Then there's the heart valve technology. Longer term but the one with the gold pot possibly at the end :)
You have to watch the webinar that was held today at 11am. Very positive and uplifting. Management have a conservative aggregate valuation of the business units of £174M.
Market is discounting everything because of the funding uncertainty currently in play but £10M market cap is a nonsense.
The webinar should be available soon from ED.
Also, assuming Amati sell out completely, RUA won’t have any “institutional” investors. Those listed currently are all nominees and platforms for retail and discretionary private investors.
To really get traction, RUA needs to get a large industry partner invested; say a major heart valve co.
Richmond background is in the RNS’s. Amazed how many people buy shares without studying the recent history and reading the published accounts. Like buying a car without the service history!
Plenty info on the thread at AD VFN.
For the record DR retired last summer but still holds 1.5M shares. His business was RUA Medical which Aortech had been a partner with for R&D before it was acquired in March 20 and the group renamed RUA Life Sciences.
ST tips are irrelevant. I bought these a year ago and they’ve already paid out £1 a share in capital and special dividend and it’s still higher than my buying prices.
First half EBITDA is only useful as history. Second half will be higher and next year far higher. It’s future earnings that dictate the share price for me.
Market makers know that tip followers will bail out if they show an early loss and they are sucking them up already.
Check back in twelve months for a more objective view of prospects because their 5G/mmWave campaign will be more advanced by then.
Singer is now a potential buyer of 1.7M shares in the open market during the next 12 months. That should put a handy floor on the price which has been sold down below net asset values lately. I hope the company issues an upbeat trading bulletin at the AGM on 3rd March as well.
Only reason for price at 405 is due to Winterflood on offer at 410. All other MM’s on offer at 440/450. Wints obviously are selling loads to buyers at below 410 and must be meeting a large sell order. Should see that appear when the work is done.
This has been a boon for all those responding to the major piece of work (18 pages) by Simon Thompson. Getting all those shares for under 410 would have been impossible without someone using the liquidity to dispose of a good lump.
I don’t read anything into the selling because a lot of large shareholders have been hit hard in recent times and are possibly chopping their portfolios around with the inflation and rate change macro issues about.
The research piece confirms everything I believe about CML and why I invested 12 months ago after the Storage division sale.
This will all be part of the greater plan of which SGN is part. Note both the RNS for Element 2 (today) and SGN (26/1/21) refer to 30 hydrogen hub locations, not 29 or 31! Unlikely to be a coincidence.
Element 2 look to be part of the ideas on financing each hub, being VC backed.
Unusual to see a share price stuck solid at one level for 5 weeks (whilst not suspended!). Study the trades and it can be seen that over 400,000 shares (nearly 4% of co) have been acquired at 170p since mid-March as each purchase tends to be delay declared a day after a similar number of small sales in the 166-168 range. MM (looks like N+1 Singer) is holding the bid firm at 165p and hoovering up stock to pass on at 170p.
We know the company fell 2.2M shares short of buying back its target number at the recent tender offer of 145p and gave its broker free rein to buy in the market place. What I don’t know are the exact rules on disclosing such purchases. Are they allowed to keep doing it until they have finished their programme of buying before telling the market? That certainly seems unacceptable from a transparency viewpoint but we know how “flexible” these rules can be on AIM.
The other possibility is a position builder, be it a big investor or even a potential predator. However, they should be declaring soon. I think some overseas funds don’t have to declare until 5% whereas for most ordinary mortals it is 3%.
I will sit back and keep my holding in ZYT intact. Will be fascinating to see this play out but I see no point selling any of mine if there is a big buyer in the market. In any event, I am holding for recovery of its markets that were decimated in the Covid lockdowns in 2020.